I happened to be sick yesterday and, as such, managed to catch a significant portion of BYU Football Media Day, 2014 edition. What strikes me is every year seems like a repeat of the same story. "I like our talent, I like our speed, I like our depth. Last year we clearly weren't there, but this year we've turned the corner." Well, coaches, you liked the team going into last year but as the season progressed, you clearly misjudged them. Why should we have any trust in your assessment heading into this season?
I had questions about this supposed depth and talent going into last year and was proven right on multiple accounts. The WRs were experienced but, beyond Cody Hoffman, there wasn't a guy out there that could go make a play, or get open against tight man coverage. The OL had a lot of bodies, but only about 4 that were good, and those 4 were rarely all healthy at the same time. Defenses exploited what turned out to be a poor OL, but in terms of depth, the 9th guy wasn't that much worse than the 5th guy, so, yeah, BYU had depth. BYU gained a lot of yards in small chunks but had way too many three and outs, particularly in the games that mattered: Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Washington. BYU's O over the years isn't about being flashy and putting up tons of big plays. It's about consistently driving the ball, moving the chains, and playing mistake-free, or having a guy who could convert a third and long with regularity. Those days ended with Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Dennis Pitta, and Austin Collie. BYU last year racked up yards, big plays, and points against teams they should have. They struggled to keep the ball longer than 5 plays against everyone else.
The front seven was as good as advertised. The secondary was, well, good in run support and opportunistic in pass defense. However, as is typical with a BYU secondary, they did not make big plays in the passing game in critical situations. They were only able to take advantage of QB mistakes. The D was, as has been the case since Max Hall graduated, put in a lot of bad situations and responded very well. Again. But eventually teams will score enough to beat you, given enough opportunities. Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Washington didn't exactly score at will against BYU in spite of poor offensive performances, but they put up enough to emerge victorious.
So, what questions do I have heading into this season? Heading into a BYU football season, it's easy to see where the question marks are: the positions that the coaches praise the most. This year, that would be the WRs. The only proven commodity from last year is gone. There are guys that the coaches say they like, but they also loved Mitch Mathews last season. He had a great game against Utah State (because they forgot to cover him 2 or 3 times) but didn't really leave his mark on any other game that he played in. The WRs could be good. But one of the things the coaches have talked about so much with the offensive players is how much more they can do now that guys have a year in the new system. Well, most of the guys expected to play at WR don't have that year under their belt. To me, that makes them the biggest question mark on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively, the always-obvious question mark is at CB, but I'm not going to go there. Robertson Daniel was pretty good last year for the most part, based on what I saw in 2012 I believe Jordan Johnson may be the best corner BYU has had in nearly 20 years, and Trent Trammel was slated to start ahead of Daniel before getting injured so there must be something there. If 2 of those 3 can stay healthy, I have no question marks there. I never thought I'd say this position was a question mark heading into a Bronco Mendenhall-coached season but, for me, it's the Inside LBs. The BYU D is designed for these guys to make plays in the run game and I don't know if the guys on the roster can do it week in and week out. Manoa Pikula might be pretty good, but I don't know, I didn't know about Uani Unga last year and he had the best tackling season BYU has ever seen. Jherremya Leuta-Douyere didn't see much time last year, even though there was ample opportunity to see he field: to me, that says something about him. Could one spring camp change that? Zac Stout and Austin Heder are both back after absences from football so I don't know how high the expectations can be for them. If the ILBs can't hack it, Bronco may be forced to either cheat the safeties up (which will really test those corners I said I wasn't concerned about, though I might be in that case!) or move one of what may turn out to be a plethora of OLBs to the inside.
So, at Connecticut, I'm watching the WRs and the ILBs. If the WRs can't get open, especially against Connecticut, I'm concerned. They'll see a steady diet of soft zone coverage from average DBs/LBs and if they can't turn that into positive plays then Texas, Utah State, UCF, Boise State, and Cal should be able to duplicate UConn's efforts. Maybe I'm underestimating UConn's abilities under Bob Diaco.
If the ILBs aren't plugging up holes in the run game, the D will take a step back, regardless of how good the other 9 players are. Bronco runs a team-oriented defense. There can't be a weak link. If there is one, my money would be on ILB.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
I Love March
I learned something about myself this past week and a half: my internal clock just knows when March has arrived. I had been watching an occasional college hoops game from November to February, though watching as many BYU games as are on TV or available online (which has been like 16 in a row). But when the Calendar turned to March, all of a sudden my basketball watching has gone through the roof. I stayed up past midnight the other night (or 1am if you count the Spring Ahead that occurred hours afterward) watching Milwaukee oust Green Bay in OT.
So, several of my loyal "followers" have asked what I think about BYU's chances of making the Big Dance as an at-large and what their chances are in the WCC Tournament. I'm obviously not an expert bracketologist, but I pretty much read everything that the Big Two (Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi) say every year and have internalized as much as I can. Based on that, I can say that BYU is as on the fence as they ever have been. Typically, I feel like if the NCAA has the choice between accommodating BYU and leaving them for the NIT, they would just avoid the headache that BYU causes. I always feel BYU gets underseeded by about 2 lines, with one lone exception when Jimmer was THE story of college basketball.
If you look at bubble teams, BYU actually stands apart in 2 ways, one good, one bad: 1) BYU has the worst collection of bad losses of any bubble team and 2) BYU played by far the most difficult non-conference schedule (though BYU went 2-5 in 7 non-conference games against RPI top 100).
BYU had 4 road conference losses that just can't happen. 4 teams that finished in the bottom half of the league, including LMU who only notched 4 total conference wins this season. Any one of the four might be slightly excusable for a team with designs on making the NCAA Tournament, but all 4 is not excusable in any way, shape, or form. No other serious bubble contender has 4 losses outside the top 100 RPI, though they make up for it with sheer volume of losses.
The one amazing aspect of BYU's non-conference schedule is that they played all but 1 of those 7 tough games away from home and, with 2 exceptions, had a decent chance in every one of those games to emerge victorious. No other bubble team comes near that level of challenging themselves in the non-conference and only a handful can make up for that by playing in a conference where EVERY game is a difficult challenge. SEC bubble teams, in particular, that were relying on a solid year for the conference were sorely disappointed as there were very few quality wins to pick up in conference play to make up for ATROCIOUS non-conference schedules: I'm looking at you Missouri and Arkansas.
So, BYU sits on both sides of the fence: one that the committee typically punishes for (multiple really bad losses) and one that usually gets a reward for (very difficult non-conference schedule filled with non-home games). I personally think if the season ended today, BYU would very like be in one of the play-in games. Unfortunately for BYU, the season doesn't end today and other bubble teams can pick up quality wins against tournament teams and BYU cannot.
Or BYU could just win their next two games and guarantee themselves at least a 11-seed and make the tournament with no question marks, except for seeding and opponent. This is the first year I actually believe BYU has a chance to win the conference tournament. I haven't liked BYU's chances any year previously for one reason or another. BYU has everything they need to win the tournament this year: a multi-faceted offensive attack where 6 or 7 guys are capable of putting up 20+ points, multiple players committed on the defensive end of the floor, and a weaker-than-usual field of competition with down Gonzaga-Saint Mary's teams.
With that said, they have to beat a San Francisco team tonight that is playing very good basketball right now. They have won 10 of their last 12 games, with both losses in hard-fought efforts against the two teams ahead of them in the standings. The teams are about as even as can be, though BYU won both games this season. It's difficult to beat any team three times in a season, but it's especially difficult when the other team is on-par with you. If they survive tonight, they'll have to face a team that actually knows how to win conference tournaments, even if they are having sub-par seasons, with either the Zags or Saint Mary's Gaels. Good luck, BYU. You will need it.
So, several of my loyal "followers" have asked what I think about BYU's chances of making the Big Dance as an at-large and what their chances are in the WCC Tournament. I'm obviously not an expert bracketologist, but I pretty much read everything that the Big Two (Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi) say every year and have internalized as much as I can. Based on that, I can say that BYU is as on the fence as they ever have been. Typically, I feel like if the NCAA has the choice between accommodating BYU and leaving them for the NIT, they would just avoid the headache that BYU causes. I always feel BYU gets underseeded by about 2 lines, with one lone exception when Jimmer was THE story of college basketball.
If you look at bubble teams, BYU actually stands apart in 2 ways, one good, one bad: 1) BYU has the worst collection of bad losses of any bubble team and 2) BYU played by far the most difficult non-conference schedule (though BYU went 2-5 in 7 non-conference games against RPI top 100).
BYU had 4 road conference losses that just can't happen. 4 teams that finished in the bottom half of the league, including LMU who only notched 4 total conference wins this season. Any one of the four might be slightly excusable for a team with designs on making the NCAA Tournament, but all 4 is not excusable in any way, shape, or form. No other serious bubble contender has 4 losses outside the top 100 RPI, though they make up for it with sheer volume of losses.
The one amazing aspect of BYU's non-conference schedule is that they played all but 1 of those 7 tough games away from home and, with 2 exceptions, had a decent chance in every one of those games to emerge victorious. No other bubble team comes near that level of challenging themselves in the non-conference and only a handful can make up for that by playing in a conference where EVERY game is a difficult challenge. SEC bubble teams, in particular, that were relying on a solid year for the conference were sorely disappointed as there were very few quality wins to pick up in conference play to make up for ATROCIOUS non-conference schedules: I'm looking at you Missouri and Arkansas.
So, BYU sits on both sides of the fence: one that the committee typically punishes for (multiple really bad losses) and one that usually gets a reward for (very difficult non-conference schedule filled with non-home games). I personally think if the season ended today, BYU would very like be in one of the play-in games. Unfortunately for BYU, the season doesn't end today and other bubble teams can pick up quality wins against tournament teams and BYU cannot.
Or BYU could just win their next two games and guarantee themselves at least a 11-seed and make the tournament with no question marks, except for seeding and opponent. This is the first year I actually believe BYU has a chance to win the conference tournament. I haven't liked BYU's chances any year previously for one reason or another. BYU has everything they need to win the tournament this year: a multi-faceted offensive attack where 6 or 7 guys are capable of putting up 20+ points, multiple players committed on the defensive end of the floor, and a weaker-than-usual field of competition with down Gonzaga-Saint Mary's teams.
With that said, they have to beat a San Francisco team tonight that is playing very good basketball right now. They have won 10 of their last 12 games, with both losses in hard-fought efforts against the two teams ahead of them in the standings. The teams are about as even as can be, though BYU won both games this season. It's difficult to beat any team three times in a season, but it's especially difficult when the other team is on-par with you. If they survive tonight, they'll have to face a team that actually knows how to win conference tournaments, even if they are having sub-par seasons, with either the Zags or Saint Mary's Gaels. Good luck, BYU. You will need it.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
BYU's 2014 Football Schedule Announced
Tom Holmoe announced BYU's 2014 Football Schedule last night. There were no big surprises announced. The biggest surprise was what was NOT announced: a bowl game. In terms of expectations for 2014, I'll look one game/team at a time.
I repeat what I have said previously though, I believe BYU is another average season away from failing its independent experiment. If BYU does not win 10 games and spend at least some time in the rankings during 2014, I believe the end is nigh for BYU's potential to become relevant nationally. In 2015, their September schedule could put them back on the map, but if BYU isn't good enough to win 10 games in 2014, I don't see them competing at Nebraska or at Michigan in 2015...this might be it Cougar fans. Let's hope not!
@Connecticut
On paper this is a game that BYU should not struggle with. However, UConn has the kind of offense that BYU defenses have struggled with in the past. They were very young last season and lost their first 9 games before gaining some momentum to close the season with 3 straight wins, including one over Rutgers who was bowl eligible. They have a small, shifty running back and an NFL-type WR that they target often. The QB situation is very much in flux. With a new coaching staff, it's unclear how the O will take shape. However, their new OC ran more of a spread option type of offense at CMU the past 4 seasons.
Bob Diaco, Notre Dame's former DC, is the new head coach and is familiar with BYU, having coached against, and stifled, BYU's offense the past 2 seasons. He doesn't have the type of players he had at ND, but familiarity is familiarity and completely shutting down is completely shutting down: he has done that to BYU before. Combine that with BYU's typical "start the season slow" on offense and we may have a tight game. But, again, on paper, BYU should win.
@Texas
Two games, two new coaching staffs. While the coaching staff may not remember what happened in Provo last year, the Longhorn players will be out for some pay back. They lost some star power on both sides of the ball, but if they return committed to running the football, they will be tough to stop. David Ash should enter 2014 as the unquestioned leader at QB, which is an advantage UT has not had since Colt McCoy graduated. This will be BYU's toughest game.
Houston
This is a Thursday night game on ESPN. Last year's game was an instant classic (for BYU fans at least). Houston brings all the skill position players back from a team that was a handful of plays from being undefeated. This one should be a great game. With the game coming 5 days after playing at Texas, I suspect BYU will have some troubles here...
Virginia
BYU has a nice long rest after Houston to take on a Virginia team that basically spoiled BYU's start from the get-go. It's not a very good team. BYU will either have some momentum coming into this game or be trying to salvage a season already gone awry. Virginia only loses a few people in the trenches. But again, this was a bad team last year and BYU should NOT lose to them.
Utah State (after a bye)
I suspect that Utah State will settle back into their spot as third fiddle in the state of Utah in a few years, but they still have a chance to make a statement in 2014. They have some positive momentum as a program for now. It is difficult to say whether Coach Wells takes the typical path of Utah State coaches and makes the year about beating BYU or if he focuses on the MWC title, which they could have a shot at this season. If his focus this offseason is on Tennessee and MWC, then BYU wins. If Chuckie wants payback and the Aggies put BYU first and foremost, this becomes a bit more difficult.
@UCF
The Knights shocked the college football world (or at least the casual college football fan) by beating Baylor this past season in the Fiesta Bowl. They have slowly been building a great football program the past few seasons. BYU fans remember the tight game the Cougars played against them in 2011. They play physical in the trenches, are very balanced on offense, and are extremely aggressive defensively. It will be interesting to see how they respond in 2014 without Blake Bortles at QB and Storm Johnson at RB. This is another tough game, though BYU fans may not see it as such. Sometimes Cougar Nation pays too much attention to their team and brand to see some of the shifts happening in the outside world! UCF is a good program.
Nevada
This is a game BYU has to win and not struggle in. Nevada struggled under first year head coach Brian Polian last season. They showed some bright spots in 2013, and they certainly had BYU on the ropes in 2013's contest, but these are the games BYU has to win, no problem, to be successful as an independent. They will be a fairly veteran team, particularly on offense. Their QB is mobile and experienced, but BYU has really improved the past 3 years against those types of QBs. With the game in Provo, it shouldn't be an issue.
@Boise State
BYU has not won in Boise before. However, with Chris Petersen moving on to Washington, and Boise seemingly on a downward trend after 7 years of complete dominance, there is potentially no better time to sneak a win up there. Grant Hedrick could be a great QB (though had his worst start of 2013 against BYU), Jay Ajayi ran for 151 yards at BYU, and Matt Miller had 5 100-yard games in 2013. It's not an easy task, but if not in 2014, then when will BYU get a win in Boise? Bryan Harsin is in his second year as a head coach, first at Boise State. That's the perfect opportunity to show what a veteran coach can do. So Bronco, show them!
@Middle Tennessee
This is another should win for BYU. On the road, against an average-at-best team that BYU manhandled in 2013. This was BYU's biggest point spread in 2013 against an FBS opponent. MTU loses its QB and one of its WRs, but they really are more of a system that isn't reliant on any one member. I wouldn't anticipate a close game, but crazy things happen to BYU on the road sometimes.
UNLV (after a bye)
The Rebels played in (and lost) their first bowl game in over a decade in 2013. Did they turn a proverbial corner or was it just a down year in the MWC? Or was their schedule just that easy? They had a senior QB and RB that really helped shoulder the load for them in 2013. Their leading WR was back who had a great year, in spite of some inconsistent play. I did watch him catch a couple of extremely impressive TDs in one of their games last year (don't recall which game). Another must win (big) for BYU.
Savannah State
FCS team, enough said.
@California
This could be an intriguing matchup. Obviously, Cal was awful in 2013. They got blown out in everyone FBS game they played excluding one (Arizona). Even 4-win Colorado laid the wood to the Bears. But many coaches see significant improvement in year two as players adjust to their coaching style and the strength and conditioning programs they put in place. Sonny Dykes saw a 3-win improvement in his 2nd year at Louisiana Tech. I'd be shocked if he didn't see a few more wins in 2014, but mostly b/c they only had 1. Jared Goff has the potential to be a very good QB if Dykes can figure out how to keep him healthy for the season. He needs to work on his arm strength a bit, but he has good touch on the deep ball and made good decisions in the few games I saw of him. Although, the guy was getting killed, so maybe he has a strong arm when he's 100%...
The Season
There is not a single game on the schedule that should be overwhelming for BYU. BYU lost a lot on defense. If Bronco can fill in those gaps and find some more consistent threats in the passing game, Taysom Hill is going to get his if he's healthy. BYU should be capable of getting 11 wins, but there are plenty of games they could drop. If they don't really start clicking on offense and find themselves involved in a lot of close games, I believe BYU will lose its fair share of them in 2014.
I repeat what I have said previously though, I believe BYU is another average season away from failing its independent experiment. If BYU does not win 10 games and spend at least some time in the rankings during 2014, I believe the end is nigh for BYU's potential to become relevant nationally. In 2015, their September schedule could put them back on the map, but if BYU isn't good enough to win 10 games in 2014, I don't see them competing at Nebraska or at Michigan in 2015...this might be it Cougar fans. Let's hope not!
@Connecticut
On paper this is a game that BYU should not struggle with. However, UConn has the kind of offense that BYU defenses have struggled with in the past. They were very young last season and lost their first 9 games before gaining some momentum to close the season with 3 straight wins, including one over Rutgers who was bowl eligible. They have a small, shifty running back and an NFL-type WR that they target often. The QB situation is very much in flux. With a new coaching staff, it's unclear how the O will take shape. However, their new OC ran more of a spread option type of offense at CMU the past 4 seasons.
Bob Diaco, Notre Dame's former DC, is the new head coach and is familiar with BYU, having coached against, and stifled, BYU's offense the past 2 seasons. He doesn't have the type of players he had at ND, but familiarity is familiarity and completely shutting down is completely shutting down: he has done that to BYU before. Combine that with BYU's typical "start the season slow" on offense and we may have a tight game. But, again, on paper, BYU should win.
@Texas
Two games, two new coaching staffs. While the coaching staff may not remember what happened in Provo last year, the Longhorn players will be out for some pay back. They lost some star power on both sides of the ball, but if they return committed to running the football, they will be tough to stop. David Ash should enter 2014 as the unquestioned leader at QB, which is an advantage UT has not had since Colt McCoy graduated. This will be BYU's toughest game.
Houston
This is a Thursday night game on ESPN. Last year's game was an instant classic (for BYU fans at least). Houston brings all the skill position players back from a team that was a handful of plays from being undefeated. This one should be a great game. With the game coming 5 days after playing at Texas, I suspect BYU will have some troubles here...
Virginia
BYU has a nice long rest after Houston to take on a Virginia team that basically spoiled BYU's start from the get-go. It's not a very good team. BYU will either have some momentum coming into this game or be trying to salvage a season already gone awry. Virginia only loses a few people in the trenches. But again, this was a bad team last year and BYU should NOT lose to them.
Utah State (after a bye)
I suspect that Utah State will settle back into their spot as third fiddle in the state of Utah in a few years, but they still have a chance to make a statement in 2014. They have some positive momentum as a program for now. It is difficult to say whether Coach Wells takes the typical path of Utah State coaches and makes the year about beating BYU or if he focuses on the MWC title, which they could have a shot at this season. If his focus this offseason is on Tennessee and MWC, then BYU wins. If Chuckie wants payback and the Aggies put BYU first and foremost, this becomes a bit more difficult.
@UCF
The Knights shocked the college football world (or at least the casual college football fan) by beating Baylor this past season in the Fiesta Bowl. They have slowly been building a great football program the past few seasons. BYU fans remember the tight game the Cougars played against them in 2011. They play physical in the trenches, are very balanced on offense, and are extremely aggressive defensively. It will be interesting to see how they respond in 2014 without Blake Bortles at QB and Storm Johnson at RB. This is another tough game, though BYU fans may not see it as such. Sometimes Cougar Nation pays too much attention to their team and brand to see some of the shifts happening in the outside world! UCF is a good program.
Nevada
This is a game BYU has to win and not struggle in. Nevada struggled under first year head coach Brian Polian last season. They showed some bright spots in 2013, and they certainly had BYU on the ropes in 2013's contest, but these are the games BYU has to win, no problem, to be successful as an independent. They will be a fairly veteran team, particularly on offense. Their QB is mobile and experienced, but BYU has really improved the past 3 years against those types of QBs. With the game in Provo, it shouldn't be an issue.
@Boise State
BYU has not won in Boise before. However, with Chris Petersen moving on to Washington, and Boise seemingly on a downward trend after 7 years of complete dominance, there is potentially no better time to sneak a win up there. Grant Hedrick could be a great QB (though had his worst start of 2013 against BYU), Jay Ajayi ran for 151 yards at BYU, and Matt Miller had 5 100-yard games in 2013. It's not an easy task, but if not in 2014, then when will BYU get a win in Boise? Bryan Harsin is in his second year as a head coach, first at Boise State. That's the perfect opportunity to show what a veteran coach can do. So Bronco, show them!
@Middle Tennessee
This is another should win for BYU. On the road, against an average-at-best team that BYU manhandled in 2013. This was BYU's biggest point spread in 2013 against an FBS opponent. MTU loses its QB and one of its WRs, but they really are more of a system that isn't reliant on any one member. I wouldn't anticipate a close game, but crazy things happen to BYU on the road sometimes.
UNLV (after a bye)
The Rebels played in (and lost) their first bowl game in over a decade in 2013. Did they turn a proverbial corner or was it just a down year in the MWC? Or was their schedule just that easy? They had a senior QB and RB that really helped shoulder the load for them in 2013. Their leading WR was back who had a great year, in spite of some inconsistent play. I did watch him catch a couple of extremely impressive TDs in one of their games last year (don't recall which game). Another must win (big) for BYU.
Savannah State
FCS team, enough said.
@California
This could be an intriguing matchup. Obviously, Cal was awful in 2013. They got blown out in everyone FBS game they played excluding one (Arizona). Even 4-win Colorado laid the wood to the Bears. But many coaches see significant improvement in year two as players adjust to their coaching style and the strength and conditioning programs they put in place. Sonny Dykes saw a 3-win improvement in his 2nd year at Louisiana Tech. I'd be shocked if he didn't see a few more wins in 2014, but mostly b/c they only had 1. Jared Goff has the potential to be a very good QB if Dykes can figure out how to keep him healthy for the season. He needs to work on his arm strength a bit, but he has good touch on the deep ball and made good decisions in the few games I saw of him. Although, the guy was getting killed, so maybe he has a strong arm when he's 100%...
The Season
There is not a single game on the schedule that should be overwhelming for BYU. BYU lost a lot on defense. If Bronco can fill in those gaps and find some more consistent threats in the passing game, Taysom Hill is going to get his if he's healthy. BYU should be capable of getting 11 wins, but there are plenty of games they could drop. If they don't really start clicking on offense and find themselves involved in a lot of close games, I believe BYU will lose its fair share of them in 2014.
Monday, February 17, 2014
Anson Winder and BYU's Success in 2014
I fully believe that Anson Winder is the key to BYU this season. His lockdown defense has been sorely missed in BYU's losses. I have watched as he sat on the bench multiple times in the 2nd half while BYU's lead was whittling away. In BYU's biggest wins, I have seen him play and lock down folks in the 2nd half, as he did on the road against St. Mary's this past weekend. In losses against Portland, Pacific, Oregon, and Pepperdine, he played a very limited role as BYU gave up large amounts of points in the 2nd half.
So, I sat down tonight with his stats and the results of BYU's games. I ran 30 regressions trying to pinpoint what his impact means. There were a few more variables I would like to have/include in the model, but this is a part-time hobby for me and I'm a full-time student, so I did the best I could. The short answer: I had a hard time finding a meaningful relationship between Anson Winder's performance (and/or minutes played) and the outcome of the game. The correlation between Anson Winder's minutes on the margin of victory was usually positive, but only one time was it a statistically significant variable.
To summarize what that one model predicts where it was significant: if BYU is going to win a road game, Anson Winder must play at least 17 minutes. In BYU's road wins, he averaged 15.75 minutes. In BYU's road losses, he averaged just 10.5 minutes. The model wasn't too crazy then I suppose in terms of minutes and margin. It only accounted for 27% of the variation in margin of victory (i.e. the adjusted R-squared for you stats geeks). So, after 30 tries, I have one model that doesn't really say anything, and has limited predictive power, but it did kind of show that Anson Winder has a non-zero, non-negative impact on BYU's margin of victory (or defeat). Of course, there were 29 models that said his impact was not distinguishable from 0...
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe BYU doesn't need Anson Winder's defense. I think if I had a few more spare hours and a few more variables, I could find a way to quantify his meaning. My gut tells me that BYU's defense sucks, but Anson Winder is a great defender and they could use him, particularly away from home. Unfortunately, math and science tell me I'm wrong...BYU just loses road game after road game for some other reason besides him sitting on the bench...either way, I'm tired of watching the same guys lose games. I'm ready to see more of Anson Winder, particularly when BYU has leads in the 2nd half!
So, I sat down tonight with his stats and the results of BYU's games. I ran 30 regressions trying to pinpoint what his impact means. There were a few more variables I would like to have/include in the model, but this is a part-time hobby for me and I'm a full-time student, so I did the best I could. The short answer: I had a hard time finding a meaningful relationship between Anson Winder's performance (and/or minutes played) and the outcome of the game. The correlation between Anson Winder's minutes on the margin of victory was usually positive, but only one time was it a statistically significant variable.
To summarize what that one model predicts where it was significant: if BYU is going to win a road game, Anson Winder must play at least 17 minutes. In BYU's road wins, he averaged 15.75 minutes. In BYU's road losses, he averaged just 10.5 minutes. The model wasn't too crazy then I suppose in terms of minutes and margin. It only accounted for 27% of the variation in margin of victory (i.e. the adjusted R-squared for you stats geeks). So, after 30 tries, I have one model that doesn't really say anything, and has limited predictive power, but it did kind of show that Anson Winder has a non-zero, non-negative impact on BYU's margin of victory (or defeat). Of course, there were 29 models that said his impact was not distinguishable from 0...
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe BYU doesn't need Anson Winder's defense. I think if I had a few more spare hours and a few more variables, I could find a way to quantify his meaning. My gut tells me that BYU's defense sucks, but Anson Winder is a great defender and they could use him, particularly away from home. Unfortunately, math and science tell me I'm wrong...BYU just loses road game after road game for some other reason besides him sitting on the bench...either way, I'm tired of watching the same guys lose games. I'm ready to see more of Anson Winder, particularly when BYU has leads in the 2nd half!
Thursday, January 23, 2014
The Mo Jinx Alive and Well
I knew as soon as I made a post about BYU hoops earlier this week that their 5-game winning streak was going to end. And it happened in about as excruciating painful a manner as possible. After trailing by 7 with 27 seconds left in OT, BYU makes the improbable comeback to send it to double OT. Then, after leading by 7 with 1:47 left in double OT, they blow it. BYU didn't show up for the third OT until it was too late.
Game over. NCAA Tournament hopes over. I think there is some serious frustration with Cougar Nation in 2013-2014 seasons. I've said this privately to a few people but now I will post: I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU sports.
If BYU doesn't make waves in football soon, the Independent experiment will fail. If that fails, football will cease to have ANY relevance and ESPN will not renew their contract, or if they do, BYU will end up with probably less money and probably worse TV time slots. If that happens, BYU football is done. They have the schedule to win 10 or 11 games in 2014, but unfortunately, that means it wouldn't really impress people unless they win 12.
BYU basketball will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. They lose Mika next season, which will be a big miss for the Cougars. They have been exposed for the lack of depth inside, and the loss of Mika will only make that weakness bigger. There are currently no players to to fill that void. Both of the incoming freshmen big men plan to go directly on their missions. A third "wild card" (i.e. not really highly regarded by any recruiting web site) is in the mix, but at 6'10" 200 pounds, is perhaps a little thin to address BYU's issues. Jamal Aytes will be eligible, basically just for WCC play after transferring from UNLV, but he's a little on the shorter side (6'6" but definitely beefier and more athletic at 230 pounds). Next year, BYU will be loaded with seniors. However, if there isn't a big in the middle, BYU will be in serious trouble against decent competition. If they miss the tourney a 3rd straight year, I don't see how they recover.
If BYU loses relevance in football, they lose their fanbase. They lose their football fanbase, they lose some attention to basketball. If BYU can't retain its own fans, how will they grow? Credit to BYU for putting together tough schedules, but they have to win some of those games. BYU didn't win many of them this season in football and won none of them in basketball. Win. Or it's over. It may be over anyway, if the Big Five Conferences have their way, BYU and the rest will forever be sitting in the shadows...
Game over. NCAA Tournament hopes over. I think there is some serious frustration with Cougar Nation in 2013-2014 seasons. I've said this privately to a few people but now I will post: I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU sports.
If BYU doesn't make waves in football soon, the Independent experiment will fail. If that fails, football will cease to have ANY relevance and ESPN will not renew their contract, or if they do, BYU will end up with probably less money and probably worse TV time slots. If that happens, BYU football is done. They have the schedule to win 10 or 11 games in 2014, but unfortunately, that means it wouldn't really impress people unless they win 12.
BYU basketball will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. They lose Mika next season, which will be a big miss for the Cougars. They have been exposed for the lack of depth inside, and the loss of Mika will only make that weakness bigger. There are currently no players to to fill that void. Both of the incoming freshmen big men plan to go directly on their missions. A third "wild card" (i.e. not really highly regarded by any recruiting web site) is in the mix, but at 6'10" 200 pounds, is perhaps a little thin to address BYU's issues. Jamal Aytes will be eligible, basically just for WCC play after transferring from UNLV, but he's a little on the shorter side (6'6" but definitely beefier and more athletic at 230 pounds). Next year, BYU will be loaded with seniors. However, if there isn't a big in the middle, BYU will be in serious trouble against decent competition. If they miss the tourney a 3rd straight year, I don't see how they recover.
If BYU loses relevance in football, they lose their fanbase. They lose their football fanbase, they lose some attention to basketball. If BYU can't retain its own fans, how will they grow? Credit to BYU for putting together tough schedules, but they have to win some of those games. BYU didn't win many of them this season in football and won none of them in basketball. Win. Or it's over. It may be over anyway, if the Big Five Conferences have their way, BYU and the rest will forever be sitting in the shadows...
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
BYU Hoops on 1/21/2014
Twists and Turns
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
Friday, December 27, 2013
2013 BYU Football Season Recap
Competitive, but not close. That sums up the performance by BYU against Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. That also pretty much sums up BYU's season.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
UW-BYU, Fight Hunger Bowl Prediction
UW has more established and consistent playmakers. BYU has the stingier defense. BYU has a less dynamic coaching staff, but they will all be there for the bowl game.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Mo's BCS Thoughts, 12/4/2013
So I typically avoid talking about the BCS, the National Championship, etc. while there are still games to be played. It's a pointless exercise b/c 90% of the time these "controversies" resolve themselves on the field. It's very difficult to go undefeated and that bears out more often than not.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
BYU-Nevada Pre-Game, 11/30/2013
Why Does This Game Matter
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
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