No more time for hype. Pre-game trash talk has come and gone (and I'm glad only one team publicly antagonized the other one). Preparation has past. This will be Bronco's last game. BYU is set to announce a new coach in the next 48 hours, who may or may not go after some of Utah's assistant coaches. This is the rivalry game that could officially mark the beginning of a new era in the Holy War. This is the last rivalry game where only Utah will have coaches with ties to both programs, as BYU will bring in a head coach, and possibly some additional assistants, who are connected on both sides of the rivalry.
Bronco always downplayed the importance of the rivalry. Kyle Whittingham never did. As a result, Utah's teams were always ready to go right out of the gate where it took BYU a while to get into the flow. The winds of change are here. If BYU gets blown out of the gate by a more ready to play/fight Utah team, then I don't think we need to cheer for this team again.
If they can't get up for this, I don't want any of them on my team.
After leaving the MWC, it's tough to compare BYU and Utah heading into a game, as there aren't as many common opponents. For a few years we only had head-to-head, which, although Utes would claim dominance, show Utah has a slight edge (three games decided in the final minute, two at home, isn't exactly dominance). The biggest edge for Utah, besides intangibles like passion and lack of coaching blunders, was special teams.
Utah again this year has the advantage in special teams; their return game is superior, their K, their P, and their coverage teams are as well. BYU is abysmal in their KO return game. They've rotated through Punt Returners more than any team I have seen in my 20 years of following college football closely. Their K is really reliable from close range, but that's about all there is to say. Their P had one great game and has otherwise been very average/below average. Utah, on the other hand, has always put an appropriate emphasis on special teams and it shows on the field every year, this year is no different.
BYU would seem to have the (somewhat large) statistical advantage on offense. Some argue Utah played a tougher schedule and that explains the statistical variance, which is true in terms of overall level of competition, but the defenses the teams have faced are actually reasonably equivalent. Utah has typically relied heavily on 2-3 guys and such has been the case this season. However, one of those guys is out for today's game. Another is planning to go but will be less than 100%. The Wild Card for Utah will be Travis Wilson. Several Utah QBs (including Travis Wilson last time out) have had near career-high type of days against BYU. BYU on the other hand, figures to be in a similar situation: turning the reigns over to a QB that has showed promise, but hasn't always been amazingly consistent (or at least hasn't done so against good competition). Travis Wilson tends to play up. Tanner is Tanner: a gamer. BYU hasn't had a consistent rushing attack all year. The WRs have been able to pick apart zone coverage, but they won't see much/any of that today.
Defensively, the teams are relatively even statistically speaking, but this is where Utah faced a lot better offenses over the course of the season than BYU, and did just as well. I expect Utah to take a lot of Michigan's game plan (which really looked like a Utah game plan adapted to Michigan) to shut down BYU's O. They should be able to stop the BYU run game, without committing extra defenders to the box. Their DBs will play tight man coverage and be in the face of BYU WRs all game long, which has caused BYU's WRs to fold under pressure previously. On the flip side, Utah will use a bevy of trick plays to catch BYU out of position, which has been successful against BYU this year, more so than usual. Utah won't be able to ram the ball down BYU's throat in a power running attack, so they'll rely on some trickery and hope for an occasional big play in the running game. Given how these games have played out in the past, I expect them to connect on a couple of those big/trick plays, while BYU fans around the globe yell at their TVs and greet the Kalani Sitake era with open arms.
So, Utah is a slightly better team. We know they are always laser-focused and ready to attack. Can the emotion of Bronco's last game or the (classless) attacks by Utah players this week inspire BYU to be just as focused and ready? I hope so (but, again, if that's what it takes to motivate these guys, I'm kind of sad to root for them!)
But I don't think so. Under Kyle/Bronco, when BYU is the better team (whether that's slightly or significantly better), they can usually, but not always, eke out a win on the last play. When Utah has been slightly better, they avoid a BYU miracle. When Utah is better, they blow them out due to a myriad of Cougar mental mistakes, many unforced. Utah is the slightly better team, so if the prior 15 years of games are an indicator: Utah by 7-10.
Utah 24, BYU 16
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