BYU's 2013 Football Schedule

First Thoughts
It looks nice.  It looks significantly better than any schedule I remember in recent history (though this past season's schedule ended up being harder than we all originally thought).  The lack of November home games is troubling again.  The Hawaii series getting cancelled wasn't amazing, though it was a major upgrade to replace them with Nevada for the next two seasons.  It's miles ahead of the old MWC schedule.  It's not as good as Notre Dame's.  However, one look at 2014 and 2015 and it seems that this may be the best independent schedule BYU and Holmoe will ever actually put together.  For that reason alone, I have to tip my hat to him.  It's mostly a collection of above-average opponents, which is something BYU has never had.

Individually
As with 2012, there isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say: BYU has no chance in this game.  But there are fewer games than usual that I look at and say: BYU should have no problem with this one (I guess that's what makes this a tougher schedule than usual: the last six seasons I could pencil at least 5-7 wins in before the season even started).  Middle Tennessee and Idaho State are the lone "guaranteed" wins.  So, BYU will go 2-0 in those two, I just guaranteed it!  The other 10 could go anywhere from 3-7 to 9-1.  I certainly don't see BYU being worse than 5-7, especially with some well-placed byes that haven't been the case in previous years.

August and September have been particularly troubling for BYU under Bronco Mendenhall.  Typically, BYU can pull off the opener, but the next three games have been huge stumbling blocks for Bronco.  The last three seasons, BYU has won the opener before falling to 2-2 or 1-3.  In fact, Max Hall was the only QB under Mendenhall to achieve a better record going 4-0 ad 3-1 his final two seasons, though he also had a 2-2 start in his first season as starter.  John Beck started 1-3 and 2-2.

So, historical precedent would suggest BYU will at Virginia then lose two of the next three: Texas and Utah, before getting that win I already guaranteed against Middle Tennessee.  Those are just historical trends (but they haven't varied much: there is as much history pointing to a 1-3 start as there is to Bronco coaching his team to better than a 2-2 start).  Again, BYU could beat Texas.  They took what turned out to be an average Cougar team down to their place and were one trick play away from winning that game.  BYU and Utah are not exactly a coinflip, but the two teams are pretty even on the field, it's just in the psyche that Utah has the HUGE edge.

In the other games, Utah State has a new coach that is in way over his head, but has plenty of talent to work with.  BYU killed Georgia Tech this season, they played Boise State to the wire with an injured QB, then a freshman QB, and they had Notre Dame on their heels for 2.5 quarters.  Houston is a road game, but there will be plenty of BYU Cougar fans there and if Houston starts slowly, it might be close to a 50-50 crowd.  Wisconsin will be tough, especially with Gary Andersen there, but BYU has a bye prior to the game to heal up and prepare.  Nevada should be a very fun game.

The Hype
Many BYU fans, including myself, believed that the defense, the skill positions, and the OL would overcome Riley's shortcomings this season, even with some very difficult opponents.  We bought into the hype.  As a result, more so than any season I ever remember outside of the Crowton years, BYU fans stopped following the team.  After the loss to Utah, some said "here we go again."  After the loss to Boise, even more just quit caring.  Fans didn't come to games.  People didn't watch them on TV.  Everyone complained about the kickoff times, the TV station, and the opponents.  Holmoe learned how quickly BYU would become irrelevant, not just in terms of national exposure but in terms of his own fanbase.

Next season, there will be hype surrounding some individual players.  Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, Jamaal Williams, Bronson Kaufusi, Daniel Sorensen.  These are solid players.  But there won't be much if any major buy-in from fans that this is a team capable of running the table.  That is both good and bad.  Fewer fans will start on the bandwagon, but fewer will also jump off after a loss or two b/c they are EXPECTING several losses in a rebuilding year.  If BYU can pull off a perfect August and September, it would be a huge boost, given the perceived difficulty of the road with three BCS opponents.  But, make no mistake, BYU will have to earn every bit of hype this season, from its own fans and from the rest of the country.

Alright, enough.  I like the schedule.  Don't get used to it though!  The regular type of dumbed-down schedule and (mostly meaningless) 10-win seasons will be returning in 2014.