Cougar fans are overjoyed that Joey Brackets has BYU's team so close to being in the tournament right now. Heading into what should be a great month for BYU where they can pile up wins, that would seem to be a great place to be. The problem is: there is no place for BYU to move into the tournament at its current rate. BYU can pound Portland, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola, and San Francisco all it wants. None of those wins will move BYU into the field. The only reason Joey has them there is RPI.
RPI ranks your record against your strength of schedule. So, BYU has a good strength of schedule. The main reason for this: they played several top 100 RPI opponents in the non-conference. They also didn't play many bottom 100 RPI opponents. They lost to all the top 100 teams besides Santa Clara. They beat all the 100-200 teams. They have a good record against a not-awful schedule, as opposed to St. Mary's which has a similar record against an awful schedule.
Math would suggest that continuing to beat mediocre teams would, at the very least, keep BYU's RPI in a reasonable state. I don't argue against that. If BYU continues to beat the rest of the conference not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they'll finish around 45. However, the number that will really kill BYU: ZERO. As in, quality wins.
The other issue with Joey Brackets right now is the fact that he is predicting what would happen TODAY. St. Mary's will not get into the NCAA Tournament if BYU does and BYU will not get in if St. Mary's does. In order for St. Mary's to get in they would have to either a) beat Gonzaga or b) go 3-0 against BYU. Realistically, they probably need to do both. If they beat Gonzaga at home but lose to BYU at home, it doesn't help them, b/c that scenario would pit them against BYU in the semifinals of the WCC Tourney in a winner-stay-in-discussion and loser-fall-out-of-discussion game.
BYU's road is even more difficult than the one St. Mary's finds itself in. It's just math. BYU's only chance to get into the tourney is to beat tournament teams. By beating St. Mary's, they push them out of the tournament and the win doesn't "count" as much. Losing to St. Mary's doesn't help either! Beating Gonzaga would help them large, but if they go 0-3 against St. Mary's, the one win won't atone for the three losses.
If BYU goes undefeated in February and makes the WCC Tourney Final, they will make the tournament. At the cost that St. Mary's will not (and BYU's two wins against St. Mary's won't help their NCAA Tourney seeding). However, does anyone watching this BYU team think they can win at St. Mary's and beat Gonzaga and Utah State at home within a week?
With that said, this can still be a fun team to watch at times. It's a fairly young team and a few NIT home games can help them gel for what might be a decent 2013-2014 season. This just was not the year of the Mormon (Mitt, BYU Football, and BYU basketball). However, to quote my inner Cubs fan, next year is right around the corner!
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