BYU to NCAA Tourney? Improbable, as of 1/16/2013

I know I've been a naysayer for most of this football and basketball season, and I'm going to continue that here: I think BYU will have to see significant improvement before they can make it into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  To me, it's simple math: their RPI will be good, but it won't be high enough to account for the fact that they didn't actually beat anybody.

RPI
Currently, depending on who you believe, BYU is somewhere between 30 and 40 in the RPI.  Their non-conference strength of schedule was pretty good actually.  This is for two major reasons: one, they played four potential NCAA tournament teams; two, they played a lot of games away from home (5 true road games and 4 neutral site affairs).  Wins against Santa Clara, Weber State, Virginia Tech, and Montana, which looked like they might potentially be top 100 RPI wins are all getting worse as the season progresses (it was to be expected from Weber and Montana in the Big Sky, where they keep winning but dropping, but the other teams are losing lots of games and dropping as a result).  The loss to Florida State wasn't necesarily bad (except when viewed in the context of the actual game or final score) when it happened, but as FSU continues to struggle, that loss is starting to look quite bad.

The RPI is also kept high b/c 8 teams they played are between RPI 100-200.  Lastly, none of their opponents are below the 300-line for RPI.  Given their remaining schedule, if BYU performs reasonably well (even 12-4 in conference play should keep them there), their RPI should stay in the 30-50 range, which is good enough to warrant consideration as a bubble team.

Quality Wins
Quite simply, BYU has ZERO quality wins.  Teams from non-BCS leagues typically need to have at least two top-100 RPI, non-conference wins, if not three or four.  BYU was 0-4.  They beat Santa Clara for their lone RPI top-100 win.  They have probably 7 more games this season against top 100 opponents: Gonzaga (twice), Saint Mary's (twice), Santa Clara (at home), Utah State (at home), and another RPI top 100 opponent in WCC tournament.  This assumes that Santa Clara and Utah State remain top 100 teams, which is no guarantee, particularly if they both lose to BYU.  Gonzaga will beat BYU twice.  Saint Mary's COULD beat BYU twice.  Let's just say BYU goes 3-4 in the remaining 7 games (which I believe is about right): that's still just 3-8 in 11 games against top 100 opponents.  It's also 1-6 against the RPI top 50, i.e. the tournament teams.  That probably puts them on the wrong side of the bubble.

If BYU manages to somehow go 4-3 (a win at home against Gonzaga or against St. Mary's in the WCC Tourney), they are 2-5 against the top 50 and 4-7 against the top 100 (with potentially another game/loss against Gonzaga in the WCC Final).  Just as with the RPI, it would be good enough to warrant consideration.

Bad Combination
I think if BYU is hoping to do well enough to "warrant consideration" they will end up on the bad side of it this season.  They provided a very entertaining play-in game last year but were down double-digits for 35 minutes against Marquette.  Perhaps the field worsens this season.  Perhaps UConn's postseason ban and UNC's struggles open up two additional slots into the tourney that are typically full and that's enough to get BYU in.  Maybe something happens to improve BYU's chances.  Maybe Santa Clara and Virginia Tech can start winning again and make those wins look better.  Maybe Utah somehow miraculously competes in the Pac 12 and that somehow magically moves them into the top 100.  Again, these are all outside of BYU's control.

What can BYU do to stay in it?  Well, a loss to Saint Mary's tonight closes the door entirely.  A win keeps it open for a while longe.  But BYU will need to sweep the rest of WCC play, excluding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's.  They'll need a split against both of those teams.  They'll need to beat Utah State.  They'll need to advance to the championship game of the WCC Tourney.  And compete against Gonzaga there.

In short, until BYU starts looking like an NCAA Tournament team, I believe they'll be on the outside looking in.  They played most of November and December looking like a young, inexperienced team with two great players.  They'll need to play the rest of January and February looking like the contender they weren't their first four tests...