There are three reasons BYU has no shot against Gonzaga tonight on the road.
1. They have no one that can guard Elias Harris. He is too strong for Josh Sharp or Brock Zylstra. He is too quick for Brandon Davies. Davies might be the best chance for BYU to stop Harris.
2. Kelly Olynyk is too big for anyone to guard but Davies or Austin (so Davies can't guard Harris). Olynyk knows how to draw fouls so if both of those guys get in foul trouble, it'll be up to Bronson Kaufusi. While I admire his toughness, I don't think Kaufusi is ready to handle a skilled, albeit uncoordinated, foreign-born player.
3. If BYU could somehow magically stop those two guys, it probably means that Kevin Pangos has extra space to roam the perimeter. If he has space he can hit threes or create off the dribble, which means more easy baskets for Olynyk and Harris.
Those three guys will score over 50 points, record 15 rebounds, and have 10 assists. BYU will be lucky to score 65. The Zag have 15 points from the other 6 guys that will see the floor (well, 9 guys after they clear their bench the last 5 minutes of the game).
I'm sure BYU will play some spirited ball, but I suspect they'll fall in an early hole, battle back before halftime, only to give up a little run before halftime that crushes the Cougars' spirits and chances. That has been a pretty consistent story through most of BYU's losses: early deficit, first half spurt, poor end to first half, poor start to second haf. Tonight's 12-point halftime deficit ends up as a blowout W at home for the Zags. Gonzaga 81, BYU 63
Wow - only off by two . . . take you to Vegas
ReplyDeleteImpressive, Mo. For one night, we'll forget all the wrong predictions and let you bask in this one.
ReplyDeleteMeh, sometimes this past football season, I've been duped (or homerized) by the hype. But I've been pretty right about this basketball team since October when I said it was an NIT team.
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