What Constitutes A Successful Season? BYU 2012

All offseason, BYU fans have read about BYU having successful seasons behind a senior QB.  When Max Hall was a senior, we heard the same thing.  While the team went 11-2 and finished ranked in the top 20, there were a lot of people that would say that was not a successful season, including me.  Quite frankly, a team that went into Big 12 territory and beat a potentially top-flight Oklahoma team (Bradford got hurt and the team struggled with a freshman QB to an 8-5 record, but with a healthy Bradford, you can bet that's a 10-win OU team), shouldn't get blown out at home.  Twice.

So now, here is Riley Nelson, leading the BYU charge this year.  All BYU beat-writing experts have proclaimed BYU will thus have a successful season.  But, as is the case with the 11-2 Max Hall senior year, it is important to define what a successful season is.  If I knew BYU was going to be 11-2 heading into Max Hall's senior year, I probably would have said it was a successful season, with close losses to Oklahoma and Florida State and an MWC title the likely scenario there.  However, with a win over Oklahoma and a senior-laden team, one had to have higher expectations than the blowouts at home against FSU and TCU.  The scale changes with the Oklahoma win.

In some ways, the 2012 schedule is not very forgiving to BYU.  Playing at Boise State 5 days after playing at Utah is tough.  BYU also faces road tests in back-to-back weeks at Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  Those are all tough teams and tough venues.  But none of those teams are unbeatable and none of those fortresses impregnable (though one could argue that Boise State is as close to it as possible).  In other ways, the 2012 schedule is perfectly set up.  There is not another of the 8 teams on the schedule that can be definitively described as being in the top half of college football right now.  Six of those other eight games are at home as well.

Riley Nelson is a senior with significant experience and expectations are high.  This much is true.  So what makes a successful season for the senior QB and his team?  10 wins?  11 wins?  Or is 9 enough, given the difficulty of the 4 toughest games?  For me, I've quietly held high expectations for this team.  The past few days and weeks, the team itself has expressed its own high expectations.  I personally believe that a successful season for BYU in 2012 means at least 10 wins.  If BYU is really a top 35 team, they absolutely should win their 8 games against inferior competition.  If I am to call the season a success, I believe that means, at the very least, a 2-2 record in the big four.

As with the Max Hall team winning in Dallas against Oklahoma: does a win at Utah up the stakes a bit?  At that point, is 10-2 still good enough?  My answer is no (especially considering I think that's a game BYU probably loses, so if they win, I up my expectations for the team considerably).  If BYU manages a win at Utah, then they are better than just a top 35 team.  They are then a top 20 team because of the MENTAL fortitude and physical ability it would require to record that win.  A top 20 team should be able to go 2-1 in games against a rebuilding Boise State, a struggling Notre Dame, and a run-heavy Georgia Tech.

A successful season is 10-2 or better.  If BYU wins at Utah, 11-1 becomes the new minimum standard for this year's team to be deemed "successful" (in my opinion).  Success isn't winning the games you are supposed to and losing most or all of the 50-50 games: if they're 50-50 games, you have to win at least 50% to be successful!  Riley and company had better win 10 games.  I'll let you know September 15th if that number needs to go up.  If that number has to go down at all, I think it's safe to say that the season was not a success.

With that said, my predictions for how BYU does are coming.  Tuesday...I know, you are all waiting in eager anticipation.