BYU 2012 FB Predictions

Michael: This is Riley Nelson’s (aka Tiny Tim) senior year, with one of the best defenses BYU has had in a while (2006), an experienced offensive line, three quality WRs, and a couple of RBs with high expectations placed on them.  The schedule is simple enough: four tough road games.  Everything else is either easy or at home.

Expectations should be through the roof for BYU this year as this is their opportunity.  With no significant challenge from any other non-BCS school to "steal" a BCS bid, even 11-1 would probably be enough to get them an at-large berth to a BCS game.  There are essentially 8 automatic bids these days: 6 auto-bids to conference champs, a second to an SEC team, and the loser of the Pac 12 Title game probably gets one, assuming it's Oregon or USC at 11-2.  That means 11-1 BYU would be fighting with second-place Big Ten and second-place Big XII for the 9th and 10th spots.

With ESPN’s power within the current BCS and their unique relationship with BYU (and, therefore, interest in BYU succeeding on a national level), it stands reasonable to assume that 11-1 could secure them a seat over a 10-2 or 10-3 Big XII/Ten team.  Any great team would go 12-0 or 11-1 with BYU’s schedule.  A good team goes 10-2.  A reasonably good team wins 9.  Can they rise up?

There are some question marks, in general, at TE and RB on offense and I have my own personal questions with the depth at OL, WR, LB, and CB.  BYU has had a lot of young, supposedly talented RBs before that never panned out.  Michael Alisa is good, no doubt, but he can’t carry the ball 20 times a game for 12 games.  One of those many guys with "potential" behind him has to produce: there is no PROVEN guy there right now.

Several of the TEs have been injured, but that just means a lot of them have gotten reps in practice, so at least one of them has to stay healthy and makes plays.  There is little to no game-experience behind Hoffman, Apo, and Falslev at WR.  That doesn’t mean the other WRs aren’t capable, just that they have only proved it IN PRACTICE, against BYU DBs.

A successful OL has to go 7-8 deep to make it through a season.  BYU is probably right around 8 guys right now, but with Michael Yeck listed as a back-up on the two-deep, there clearly isn’t depth across the board.  Improvement is one thing, but did he magically get more coordinated in the past 10 months?  I highly doubt it.

At LB there is certainly an amazing amount of quality in the starting ranks.  But Kyle Van Noy and Brandon Ogletree have had some injuries.  KVN’s backup got injured about a week ago.  Zac Stout, a backup MLB, is coming off a season missed due to injury as well, and his health is already questionable (I heard he is now out indefinitely with an Achilles injury).  Is there enough depth there?  They’ll need 6 guys anyway, which seems like about all they have.  If one guy goes down, they can recover, but if they lose two guys, that unit could go from “best ever” to “biggest disappointment ever.”

DB is always an interesting position at BYU.  But I trust the four safeties in the two-deep.  The corners are just always a wild-card.  Even the "good" ones BYU gets aren’t that good.  They seem to tackle well, but they never cover well and their reaction to the ball in the air is worse than a Utah high school freshman B team.

Matt: BYU has established themselves in the annals of NCAA football history as a pretty decent team, and I personally like the way they’re set up going forward. Due to them being unaffiliated with any conference it allows them freedom to schedule on their own (which has its pro’s and con’s) and more importantly their own TV deal with ESPN to allow many games to be broadcast nationally. I think this setup is good for BYU because they will play high profile games such as @ Boise and @ ND, games that will be shown nationally and really pose no downside for BYU. No downside because barring disaster, BYU will make a bowl game and be playing in the postseason. If they win these tough road games they’re looking at potentially one of the “higher” bowls, perhaps even a BCS bid under the most miraculous of circumstances.
This year I look for a very good BYU defense to be coupled with an efficient running attack to control the ball and clock en route to wins. The schedule has its difficult stretches (i.e. @ Boise the Thurs following Utah) as well as its easy stretches (the last three games), which should keep BYU fans on their toes. BYU could realistically win anywhere from 7 games (a terrible year) to 11 games (a great year), and that volatility surrounding the team should keep people tuning in to the Cougs this season.

Game-By-Game

Washington State, 8/30, 8:15pm (Mountain), ESPN

Michael: This is the one that sets the tone.  We will see BYU’s usual weakness (the secondary) vs. Washington State’s strength (the passing game).  I will say the advantage BYU has here is the OLBs.  They are vicious and Mike Leach typically relies heavily on quick passes and screens.  I suspect 1.5 quarters of that will have the WRs asking coach to call something else.  At that point: can BYU get a pass rush for the deeper drops/longer passes?  The defense will probably give up 2-4 big plays, as a result of limiting live tackling in fall camp.  It happens.  There is nothing Bronco can do about it: players have to tackle in live situations if they are going to repeat that in games.

The other factor is the Wazu defense, which is bad anyway, but add in a coach who doesn’t even care about the D, and it might be historically bad.  Can BYU dominate time of possession and force Wazu’s O to rush and try to score quickly?  I believe that will be BYU’s game plan.  If Doman can hack it, I believe it will certainly work out in the BYU Cougars favor.  Alisa for 100+, Nelson adds another 50 on the ground, and an unnamed RB steps up to contribute 6 yards/carry with 5+ carries.  BYU typically struggles against BCS opponents in the ground game, but I don’t think that happens here against Leach and the Washington State Cougars: BYU 37, Wazu 28.

Matt: Pretty tough opener for BYU in that Wazzou gives you a big case of the unknown. Well, we know they’ll pass, but what we don’t know is if they’re going to be any good. I personally feel like Wazzou is getting WAY too much this hype this offseason because they’ve got a competent QB (Tuell) and a very good WR (Wilson) and their coach likes to throw…a lot. Well, that fails to mention the terrible defense and poor OL play.
BYU will establish their run game and their good D will keep them ahead of Wazzou for the majority of the game. BYU 31 Wazzou 23

Weber State, 9/8, 1pm, BYUTV
Michael: A nice tune-up a week ahead of Utah.  Nice paycheck for Weber: BYU 44, Weber 13.

Matt: BYU doesn’t have to break much of a sweat here. BYU 34 Weber 6

At Utah, 9/15, 8pm, ESPN2

Michael: There isn’t much room to argue that BYU should win this game.  BYU lost at home by 44 points.  The wheels came off, which probably doesn't happen again.  But still, BYU now travels north, away from home, to face a Utah team, which is better than the 2011 version that won the game by 44.  I believe it would take some miraculous play by BYU to win.  I’m not saying they can’t win.  I’m just saying I don’t think they will.  I think they’ll look back at this game and realize this was one that cost them a great season.  Instead, they’ll have to settle for a good season.  This is the last game for anyone on this Utes team against BYU at Rice-Eccles, since BYU doesn’t return until 2016, and that gives the Utes the added motivation they need to win a defensive battle: Utah 16, BYU 13.

Matt: See Utah prediction for explanation. BYU 24 Utah 22

At Boise State, 9/20, 7pm, ESPN

Michael: I have long thought this was a winnable game for BYU, in spite of playing it just 5 days after the rivalry game.  Boise State, no doubt, is tough to prepare for, especially on such short notice.  Their home dominance has been well-documented: it’s something like 64-3 over the past decade.  The loss to Utah will either strengthen BYU and help them play like world-beaters or the seniors will allow the team to wilt, feeling their last chance at a BCS game has passed them by.  I think they do rally, and win this game on sheer determination, and inexperience on Boise State’s side: BYU 27, Boise State 23.

Matt: Tough break here for BYU as they have to play on short rest and travel to Boise rest after a relentless, emotional win against Utah. Boise has one of the best coaches in the nation and one of the best home field advantages to boot. By no means will this be a blowout. I think BYU starts strong but fades at the end, too many intangibles going against them. Boise 31 BYU 23

Hawaii, 9/28, 6pm, ESPN

Michael: Initially I thought this was going to be a somewhat difficult contest.  After a thorough review of Hawaii (which I never actually got around to posting), I downgraded the difficulty of this game, feeling this will be an easier W for BYU than the game at SJSU will be later.  Talent level is low at Hawaii right now, lower than I ever remember it being.  There is almost certainly some pressure on Norm Chow (not external pressure, but pressure he puts on himself), who FINALLY gets a shot at a head-coaching gig.  I am sure he’s learned a lot in his years in the profession, but he’s never had to learn them from the head coach’s seat.  There’s a lot of storylines going into the game, but the one coming out: BYU 38, Hawaii 24.

Matt: New coach for Hawaii and a long travel to the mainland. BYU’s D should make life plenty difficult for Hawaii who will struggle to stop BYU on offense—bad  combo for the artists formerly known as the Rainbow Warriors. BYU 33 Hawaii 20

Utah State, 10/5, 8:15pm, ESPN
Michael: Last year's Utah State was the game that turned BYU’s program around, really.  Without the poor play and miraculous comeback, BYU meddles to a 6-6 record under Jake Heaps, and would be heading in to an uncertain 2012.  A poor 2012 after an unspectacular 2011 would have diminished the value of BYU considerably as we approach the Playoff Era.  That impacts recruiting, sponsorship, fan interest, and scheduling.  Those four things are vital to BYU’s future success as an independent.
However, Nelson comes in, wins the game, and leads BYU to a 10-win season.  Heaps transfers and Nelson becomes a poor man’s/BYU’s version of Tim Tebow: a lefty who plays with grit, determination, and leadership to make up for an inferior arm and questionable decision-making.  You can bet Utah State remembers too.  I just don’t know where the Aggies O will be this season though.  A dual-threat QB can only be a threat if there are reliable RBs and WRs.  Utah State is reasonably talented at those skill positions, but also quite thin.  They should have established some leadership at this point of the season, but that may not be enough to win in Provo against a BYU team that is finally starting to believe in themselves after a 4-1 start.  Plus, Tiny Tim wants to go out on a high note against his former team, which “dishonored” his father and family name while on his mission.  At least the Aggies got an invite to join a conference next year, unlike other WAC teams: BYU 34, Utah State 16.

Matt: USU gave BYU their best shot last year, and now they’re without their NFL caliber RB. Despite USU’s best effort in the first half, I see BYU pulling away with their running attack. Nelson plays his best game of the season en route to a huge Cougars 2^nd half. BYU 41 USU 17

Oregon State, 10/13, TBA, TBA

Michael: Oregon State is one of those teams that should win 6 or 7 games every year.  Most years they end up hitting 8 or 9 somehow.  Last year, however, it caught up to them and they only managed 3.  They figure to be better.  The Beavers figure to be around 3-2 coming in, possibly still trying to establish themselves and figure out an identity.  I applaud the Beavers for their scheduling: Wisconsin and at BYU in the non-conference.  BYU needs to run the ball against Oregon State, and focus on that like they should against Washington State.  That will be there recipe for success.  They failed to run well against them in the Vegas Bowl a few years back, with Harvey Unga averaging just 3 yards/carry.  They made up for it in a big way last season, rushing for 282 yards.  I suspect BYU breaks the 150-yard mark this game, which would be enough.  If they reach 200, it should be a blowout: BYU 31, Oregon State 21.

Matt: This one is a tough one for me to call because you never know what to make of these pesky Beavers. The fact that this BYU team traveled to Corvallis last year and took care of business, I feel they can replicate that in Provo, but it will be close. BYU 28 OSU 27

At Notre Dame, 10/20, 1:30pm, NBC

Michael: I am definitely excited to see how this game plays out.  If things were to play out as I predicted for both teams, BYU would be 6-1 coming in, ND would be 5-1.  Both would be in the top 25, on account of having good records and each with a win against a ranked opponent, BYU’s win coming on the road, but ND beating a better opponent.  I think the Irish are vulnerable, but I also think they have such great athleticism that it would take a very clean game from the Cougars to win.  BYU hasn’t had anything resembling a clean game against anything resembling a quality opponent since (probably) that Vegas Bowl game in 2009 against Oregon State.  This BYU team certainly could beat this Notre Dame team.  The problem is: where BYU wins the individual battles, the Irish can make up for it with a great play from Manti Te'o.  BYU won’t be able to continually sustain long drives against the Irish D.  The Irish O will end up in the same boat.  So it comes down to the kicking game, the turnover battles, and the big plays.  BYU loses two of those three and the game: Notre Dame 20, BYU 17.

Matt: This game to me is what will determine JUST how good this BYU team is. A win for the Cougars and they will have confidence in knowing they can win any of their games on their schedule. A loss could make for a nationally forgotten season for BYU. Both ND and BYU have high expectations, high ceilings assuredly, and no conference affiliation. The talent of ND and well, being at home, drives ND to victory. ND 31 BYU 22

At Georgia Tech, 10/27, TBA, TBA

Michael: The triple option of Paul Johnson can be extremely difficult to defend.  Here is the true test of the BYU seniors, because a loss at ND puts a BCS game entire out of reach at 6-2.  Do they rally, knowing that this is the last true test of their mettle in their collegiate careers?  I think they probably do on an individual level.  However, this game will be about preparation, execution, and playing within your assignment, not playing on emotion.  As mature as BYU typically is, I think they could lose some of that team concept and everybody goes out trying to make a play, and the Bumblebees take advantage: Georgia Tech 31, BYU 20.

Matt: Very difficult follow up for BYU after going to ND as Georgia is a long way from home. GT is a triple option team that will give most teams fits, but BYU should be very good at stopping the run. Offense will be difficult to come by at first for both teams as the pace will start slow and time of possession will be at a premium. From a fans perspective, I anticipate this will be one of the best of the year in terms of entertainment value. GT 27 BYU 26…failed for 2 point conversion in OT

Idaho, 11/10, TBA, TBA

Michael: With a bye week to clear their heads and a light opponent on the schedule, BYU returns to form on Senior Day.  I think this is the highest point total for BYU on the season: BYU 49, Idaho 13.

Matt: I agree with Michael here, no reason BYU shouldn't take full advantage of a lesser opponent after their tough road: BYU 36, Idaho 10.

At SJSU, 11/17, 2pm, TBA
Michael: This game isn’t as easy as I originally thought.  After reflection on last season’s game, BYU was actually lucky to win.  SJSU has developed some quality in the trenches for the first time in 30+ years.  They also happen to have some very talented skill position players, perhaps more talented than they have ever had in the program.  They lack any kind of depth, however, and, even with an easy schedule, there are just enough tough opponents to put some doubt that their five stars will be available for this game.  Without all five, they can’t beat BYU: BYU 28, SJSU 17.

Matt: Bloppy game but BYU shouldn't have too much trouble staying ahead on the scoreboard.  BYU 29 SJSU 16

At NMSU, 11/24, 1:30pm, TBA
Michael: BYU goes out in style.  The Boise State game gave BYU fans hope that they could pull off the improbable march to 11-1, but Bronco’s 9-10 win total remains consistent, even with this team that seemed so capable early in the year.  Anyway, New Mexico State may have already fired their coach, and if they haven’t, he’s probably scrambling to try to save his job.  There is not enough talent, coaching, or security for NMSU to reign: BYU 41, NMSU 16.

Matt: NMSU is not good, plain and simple.  BYU 33 NMSU 9

Final Analysis

Michael: I see this team as very similar to the 2009 team, which didn’t exactly underperform, but certainly failed in a couple of games to play up to what should have been their potential.  After beating Oklahoma, in Dallas, they got killed at home by Florida State and TCU.  While this year’s team will not lose any games that badly, they probably add an extra loss compared to the 2009 squad.  I always try to project when BYU’s offense and defense will come together to put a truly great team on the field.  I was right on 2006.  I was the TCU game away from being right in 2009.  This was the next year I targeted (apparently Bronco operates on a 3-year plan).  So as a true Cubs and BYU fan, I expect the team to underperform against my expectations.

I do believe once they hit the magical 2-loss mark that they will struggle as a team the following game.  If that comes after Boise State, perhaps they can still win at ND and Georgia Tech.  If ND is the second loss, I think the Georgia Tech game will also be an L.

This season will be good enough, and the TV schedule is set up well enough, to keep people interested, but that doesn’t mean “relevant.”  Next year figures to be a rebuilding year.  Plus it has a very difficult schedule from start to finish.  So this is BYU’s chance to become relevant on a national scale.  They have the talent, they have the experience, they have the coaching.  Unfortunately, they just have too many tough road games to expect the 11 wins necessary to do that.   BYU will continue playing on Friday nights in primetime and Thursday nights post-primetime until they can prove they belong on Saturday night in primetime.  Another 9/10-win season will not get that done.

Matt: Decent season for BYU, but not a special season. No reason to complain as they are continuing to adapt in their role as an independent, and as they get to go to another bowl game (that they should win). I truly believe they’re a year or two away from being a consistent top 20 team every year, but for now, they get what they signed up for. When they decided to go independent BYU had to figure this would be their fate, lots of 7-10 win seasons and top 25 finishes, but very little national splash otherwise.