University of Utah 2012 FB Predictions

I’ve decided to give in-depth predictions for four teams this season: Utah, Notre Dame, Colorado, and BYU.  I’ve enlisted the help of my friend Matt Roberts for this initial run-through.  He’s about the only guy I know as knowledgeable and passionate about college football as I, even if he cheers for the wrong team (CU).  So, first up on our list, we’ll discuss Matt and my favorite rival team, Utah.  They’re my rival because of 100+ years of history and tradition.  They’re Matt’s rival because the Pac 12 said that’s how it is supposed to be.  Without further ado:

Initial Thoughts

Michael: I really feel this is a bit of a make or break year for the Utes, which is something I hate to level on any program because of the ebbs and flows of college football.  I’ll explain why later.  I said before the transition to the Pac 12 that it was unfortunate they weren’t moving into the Pac with their 2012 squad, where I feel they’d have all of the pieces in place to be successful (while still having USC on probation).  As it is, I believe they have their best team since 2004 (yes, better than the 2008 Sugar Bowl team that was only “really good” in my estimation), but USC is not on probation anymore, and the Trojans have some hungry seniors that haven’t been to a bowl game since their freshman year!
Utah is “on the board” with a lot of real Pac 12 recruits for next year’s class right now, but haven’t landed any of them just yet.  It’s almost as if people are waiting to see how Utah will do with this whole Pac 12 venture before committing.  They need to finish 2nd in the South this year, I feel, or else they will go back to getting MWC-type recruits and be forever relegated to the 3-5 range in the South.  That is why I feel it’s a make-or-break season for them.

Defensively, they’re a solid team, a little green at the LB spot, but pretty solid elsewhere.  Brian Blechen is suspended for the first three games, so they’ll need to hope they have depth at SS, but realistically that should only impact them against BYU.

Brian Johnson takes over duties as Offensive Coordinator.  That should be interesting.  Since having a decent career at Utah, he sat around for a year before returning and stunting the development of Jordan Wynn as QB coach.  Obviously, I’m not too high on the hire.  I think he could be the difference in a couple of games this season, for better or (more likely) worse.  K-Whit continues to struggle getting a good Offensive Coordinator.

Matt: I agree with Michael in that this really is going to be a big year for Utah. They come in with high expectations, and some may argue a Heisman candidate RB in John White IV. Now personally I feel the Heisman is an award reserved for (most of the time) the best player (QB) on the best team in the land, unless you get the RGIII’s of the world to slap you in the face. As for White, he is a good RB but not one that will carry Utah into the land of the nation’s finest.
In the recruiting game, I feel as if Utah is in a tough spot. They don’t have the upper hand in recruiting the LDS players, as I feel BYU is the preferred destination for most LDS student athletes and with BYU’s schedule geared to playing a bowl game every year almost guaranteed, only furthers my belief there. Also, being in the same division as USC and UCLA I feel that limits the number of good SoCal HS players to go around. I feel K-Whit, barring a BCS-Bowl type season, will be relegated to getting by with the same “2nd tier” incoming talent.
Overall, I feel this year’s Utah team has the makings of a top 25 team. Their O will be pretty vanilla with lots of power running, and their D will focus around their front seven making plays and getting pressure on the QB.  

Game By Game

Northern Colorado, 8/30, 5:15pm (Mountain), Pac 12 Network
Michael: if I’m not mistaken, this will be the first ever game broadcast on the Pac 12 network.  That’s almost as cool as BYU being the first game ever on ESPN.  That’s about the only thing interesting about the game.  Utah 38, UNC 3.

Matt: This game will not be close, mainly because UNC is horrid since making the jump into FCS not long ago; to be expected I suppose. Good ‘get your feet wet’ game for Mr. Johnson as OC, but don’t expect anything too crazy. Utah should keep their game pretty vanilla and let their front 7 on both sides of the ball dominate for an easy victory. Utah 41, UNC 6

At Utah State, 9/7, 6pm (Mountain), ESPN2

Michael: there is more intrigue to this game as Utah State is certainly improving.  In 2011, the Aggies took it to Auburn and BYU on the road before falling in heart-breaking fashion.  They still made their first bowl game since 1997.  They return their QB, but lose the heart soul of both the O and the D.  This early in the season, that will be tough to overcome, even at home, on a Friday night, on ESPN2.  I like what Gary Andersen has done to the program.  He’s got a relatively tough schedule this season (by Utah State standards and with Utah State “talent”), so it’ll be tough to improve upon last year’s 7-6 record.

Still, they’ll have a chance against the Utes.  With the D being potentially solid for the Aggies, and with the aforementioned questionable offensive coaching of the Utes, this could be a closer one than people think.  The loss to the Utes puts the Aggies at 1-1, on their way to at best 1-3, perhaps even 1-5.  Utah moves to 2-0 with a 20-13 dogfight win.

Matt: I disagree with Michael on this game, I think Utah will be in control of this game early and not relinquish the lead. With both teams coming off wins (assumption based on both playing FCS teams to start) I like Utah to start hot on both sides of the ball. While Utah St loses their NFL RB in Turbin they will struggle to find footing against this talented Utah defensive front. Offensively, I don’t expect Utah to show much again, with lots of short passes and lead-blocker running to eat away at the clock and USU’s morale. I expect Utah to be up 10 or so at halftime and win by a similar margin. John White will get 25 or so carries and Utah will win 31-21.

BYU, 9/15, 8pm (Mountain), ESPN2

Michael: Utah “forced” 7 turnovers against BYU en route to the biggest #fail I’ve ever seen out of the Cougars.  I use “force” lightly as 3 or 4 of BYU’s fumbles occurred without a Ute ever touching a BYU player.  Hell, Jake Heaps fumbled like 3 or 4 times on one play without a Ute getting within 5 yards of him…Utah has a huge psychological edge.  They also happen to have a better team than the one that left Provo with a 7-score victory.  Strange things have happened in this series, but it’s usually when Utah does something “weird” against a better BYU team, not the other way around.  With that said, BYU has a great D this season and the Utes have Brian Johnson…I don’t think Utah will score more than two TDs against BYU this season, unless the defense (or BYU offense/special teams) gets involved.
I don’t think this game will be as pivotal to the Utes’ season as it will to the Cougars.  Utah tends to play its best football from mid-October to end of November.  A loss here will not hold the Utes back, or prevent them from getting momentum into the tougher part of conference play.  The Cougars need this one to springboard towards Boise State and a potential 10-win season: a loss here could kill BYU’s chances.

Utah 16, BYU undecided (I can’t spoil this one before I do my BYU predictions).

Matt: This one should get interesting…after BYU took a drubbing at home last year they will be more than fired up to attempt to do the same this year at Rice-Eccles. BYU will be coming off a win against Weber St (potentially 2-0 being a 2 TD favorite against Wazzou at home to begin the season) and Utah should be 2-0, so this will be one of the better early season games you will see in all the land. This will be the first true test for OC Johnson as Utah will be up against a DRASTICALLY better D than they’ll have seen to start the season. Look for Johnson to lean heavily on White in the first half, with not much success. Coach Mendenhall is equipped with excellent LB play and will disrupt what Utah will want to do on offense.
First half will be slow paced and field position driven to the tune of 7-6 BYU lead. The 2nd half will open up a little bit more with Mendenhall putting the onus in the hands of Wynn and making him make good decisions down the field. Van Noy and co. coming off the edge will get JUST enough hits on Wynn to make him rattled and make a few mistakes—leading to turnovers. BYU will capitalize on the short field by cashing in on those mistakes while Utah also knows the weakness of BYU lies in their secondary and will be able to make a couple splashes down the field.
BYU will earn their revenge in another thrilling matchup in this rivalry game by using smart coaching and a strong front-7 effort (and a little luck) to win 24-22.

At Arizona State, 9/22
Michael: ASU heads into the season with a new coach, Todd Graham, who I believe is a horrible fit for the Sun Devils program.  He has a huge rebuilding project there in Tempe.  However, there’s still a lot of “talent” down there, he’ll just have to make it mesh with his disciplinarian style.  It certainly will not have come together by the time the Utes roll into town in Week Four.  Utah 27, ASU 17.

Matt: Utah will be infuriated by their loss to their rival and this fury will get let out against ASU. I believe ASU will struggle to put up with Coach Graham’s toughness and mentality and they will have a poor season. Look for Utah to come out firing and for ASU to crumble in a way that only ASU has perfected. Utah 35-6

USC, 10/4, 7pm (Mountain), ESPN (that’s 9 Eastern, FYI, and I have a Final Friday Morning!)

Michael: this is potentially the biggest game in Rice Eccles history.  4-0 USC will likely be in the top 2.  If Utah beats BYU, they’ll be 4-0 and likely in the top 20 as well.  I believe Utah has the D to keep the Trojans somewhat frustrated.  They’ve got the altitude.  They’ve got the student section.  They’re coming off a bye.  It’s Thursday night, on ESPN.  This is it: the season, the Pac 12 South, the Rose Bowl, and the National Championship (haha), are all on the line.  If they lose to USC, they cannot win the South and their best hope is probably the Holiday Bowl?

In the end, I believe Brian Johnson loses this game.  It’s not necessarily his fault: he is a first year coordinator against one of the 5 best teams in the country.  USC 24, Utah 10.

Matt: USC will be poised this season behind a (legit) Heisman candidate and an insanely talented supporting cast. Utah frustrated the Trojans last year in their inaugural Pac-12 game ultimately to lose a close one. Utah will have every reason to be motivated in this game while USC will continue to try and work their way back to a BCS game. With both teams coming off a bye this one should be a very entertaining game with momentum being a huge, if not the deciding, factor. To me however, I see this coming down to Barkley vs Wynn, and I think Barkley (and his very talented supporting cast) seize this one in the 4th quarter. USC 31, Utah 21

At UCLA, 10/13

Michael: this now becomes the battle for 2nd place in the Pac 12.  UCLA actually has more TALENT, but Utah has more developed SKILL and has more continuity in the coaching staff.  I believe UCLA does have the right coach for the job there in the long-run, but if you don’t have a QB, you don’t have a team.  He has no QB: Utah 31, UCLA 13.

Matt: UCLA has talent, but they’re going through a culture change down in Westwood which I actually agree with Michael, will be for the best in the long run. I like Mora and think he has the proper attitude going into this job, as long as he’s willing to see things through.

That being said, inexperience at QB and lack of cohesion will be UCLA’s downfall in this game, even at home, as Utah will look to avenge their USC loss. Utah 24, UCLA 13

At Oregon State, 10/20

Michael: Oregon State figures to be better than the 3-9 Beavers squad that got pounded by the Utes in Rice Eccles, 27-8.  However, they aren’t “back” by any means.  This is probably the lone road shootout of the year for the Utes though.  The Beavers definitely have big play potential and I suspect they’ll pull off a few of them against the Utes at home: Utah 34, Oregon State 27.

Matt: Mike Riley’s OSU teams always seem to compete, with really the exception of last year, where a 3-9 season served as the worst they’ve seen under coach Riley. I do agree that OSU will be “back” to a certain degree; they’re too well coached not to. I don’t see this being as much of a shootout as Michael advertises, due to a slow offensive pace that will be preferred. October in Corvallis will likely mean a sloppy field—advantage Utah and their running game. Utah 19, OSU 10.

Cal, 10/27

Michael: Cal is about as big of an enigma in the Pac 12 as Oregon State.   They had a couple of runs in the top 10 in the mid-2000’s and have been hanging out in the middle of the conference ever since.  This team COULD be to make a push for 2nd place in the North.  Senior Zach Maynard will have his work cut out for him against a stout Utah D.  At home, Cal dispatched Utah with relative ease.  This is the part of the season where the Utes typically turn it on, and they have some payback to administer here as well: Utah 27, Cal 23.

Matt: What to make of Cal, that’s really the question here. I attribute a lot of Utah’s poor stretch in the middle of last season to injuries and unfamiliarity to be honest. Cal should not have beaten Utah so badly and I think Utah will prove superior in this year’s matchup. Maynard will make a few plays but Utah will grind out an ugly victory. Utah 26, Cal 20

Washington State, 11/3

Michael: Mike Leach and The Air Raid invade Utah for the second time this season.  Wazu just doesn’t have the depth to last into November.  This game follows a trip to Stanford, and I think Utah handles these Cougars with relative ease: Utah 34, Wazu 20.

Matt: Anyone want a shootout? I believe this is where Ute fans will find one. With Leach coming to town, this late in the season, the Air-Raid should be firing at least well enough to put up some points. Problem with Wazzou is their D— it’s not good. Wazzou won’t be able to stop Utah’s running attack and look for Utah to rack up a number of sacks on Tuell. Utah 36, Wazzou 28

At Washington, 11/10

Michael: This is one of those games that Utah could win, but it will really depend on their motivation at this point of the season: if the season is going well, they’ll get it going.  If my predictions are wrong and it’s not going well, they might get rolled.  Last year, a veteran UW squad pounded a young Utah team in Utah’s backyard.  Could these veteran Utes repay the favor this year?  Both teams will be feeling the grind of a long schedule at this point and I think ultimately the winner of this game will be the team that still has their starting QB.  I’ll trust UW and Sarkisian’s depth over Utah and BJ’s: Washington 31, Utah 23.

Matt: A lone roadie sandwiched between two winnable home games, is not a great recipe for success. I don’t question Utah’s mental toughness as much as I question their ability to slow down Keith Price and that Sark offense. UW is a very tough environment to travel to, especially when the Huskies are fielding a top 25 caliber team. UW 34, Utah 21

Arizona, 11/17

Michael: As with ASU, I feel Arizona made a bad hire for their program with Rich Rod.  I actually think if ASU and Zona swapped coaches, they’d both be better off.  As it is, I don’t expect Zona to give Utah a whole lot of trouble: Utah 38, Zona 24.

Matt: I expect Zona to have a large learning curve in Rich Rod’s offense, which will not bode well for the Cats. Zona, who’s D under coach Stoops seemed to improve steadily over the years, will get neglected in true Rich Rod fashion in favor of putting up points. This isn’t K-Whit’s first hurrah against the spread offense and I think they’ll be able to maintain a consistent offensive attack against an inferior Zona D. Utah 31, Zona 20

At Colorado, 11/23

Michael: Last year, a struggling CU held on to beat Utah 17-14 at Utah with the Pac 12 South hanging in the balance.  I am still miffed about that one.  This year, both teams figure to be better, but Utah, to me, has the higher ceiling.  CU could very well be playing for a bowl bid in this game.  Utah won’t have a whole lot riding on this one except for ranking and bowl position.  I’ll take the young CU team meshing together and playing confidently against Utah: Colorado 24, Utah 20.

Matt: Let me preface this with a homer alert…I am a CU alum and believe in big things this year for the Buffs. I actually think a LARGE factor in this game will be CU’s record. At this point in the season Utah (at least according to my predictions) is looking at 8-3 and 2nd place sewn up in the South division while CU COULD be looking at a must-win in order to earn their first bowl game birth since…well let’s just say too long. Utah will be motivated on “avenging” last year’s loss at home with the South title* (USC was ineligible) on the line. CU will be in front of a raucous crowd hungry to show off in front of their newly deemed “rival.” A long season for Utah full of rising and falling in the top 25 may equate to signs of mental fatigue and wear on the Utes, while CU’s goal for the season has been transparent the whole time—a Bowl game or bust for the Buffs! Boulder crowd + budding ‘rivalry’ + different season aspirations will bode against Utah here, losing like last year on a missed 4^th quarter FG that would’ve tied the game. Colorado 33, Utah 30.

Final Analysis:

Michael: Not a bad year for the Utes, but I’m sure they will be a bit disappointed.  This team, in the MWC, is a likely BCS Buster.  In the Pac 12, they’ll probably finish 2nd in the South.  I do believe with a better OC hire than BJ, they could be 11-1.  With him, however, I think 8/9 is the cap.  The schedule is just that much tougher in the Pac 12 without a New Mexico or UNLV to “get things figured out.”

Matt: Disappointing season for the Utah die-hards, despite an 8-4 record and a bowl berth. Really, the Utes season rides and dies with that USC game in my opinion. If they find a way to win that game, they’ll be bursting with confidence carrying them throughout the season. Knowing they’d have the edge to the Pac-12 title game and potentially the inside track on a BCS game would lay great groundwork for the Utes, especially going forward.

I however, do not see Utah beating USC (obviously) and think the effects of this loss will be telling throughout the rest of the season. A season marked with tons of potential and upside ending with a middle of the Pac (pun intended) Bowl game and a long offseason will lead to questions on how they will be going forward.