Utah got the gift/chance of a lifetime: an invitation to join a BCS conference. And not just any BCS conference: the Conference of Champions. Utah's access to the BCS National Championship Game increased, Utah's access to the Rose Bowl increased, and Utah's access to televisions across the nation increased. However, with that said, the road to the National Championship Game and Rose Bowl just got a lot tougher as well.
The road changed from a narrow, windy, dangerous mountain path where one false step means doom, to a four-lane highway with cops perched at every stop along the way where a lead foot might land you a ticket, but not prevent you from getting to your destination. They don't have to go 12-0 to get there, and if they go 12-0 they should absolutely get there. But then, even going 11-1 is going to be difficult. There are no Wyoming's, New Mexico's, or UNLV's in the Pac 12. Even lowly Washington State would finish around 5th or 6th in the MWC.
Can Utah compete in the Pac 12? In football, they can be competitive against every team in the conference, perhaps with the exception of an Oregon team (whom they wouldn't play until the Pac 12 Championship Game anyway), that looks poised to set up a little dynasty up north. Whether that translates into competing for a conference title is yet to be seen. While I believe the 2011 Utah Utes will not be as good as the 2010 Utes were, they still have a good shot to win the Pac 12 South [and in a one-game, winner-take-all Conference Championship Game, anything can happen]. Consider this: the Pac 12 South has one team that played in a bowl game last season. Utah does not have to play the top 2 schools from the North, and the team predicted to win the South by most "experts" (excluding USC, who is not eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game) is a perennially overrated Arizona State team that Utah gets at home, in altitude.
However, the big question for me is how will the 2011 Utes fare against a schedule much tougher than their 2010 one? If the schedule is harder and the team is not as good, it would seem that 10 wins would be a difficult thing to repeat. The good news is they may not need 10 wins in the weak South, with USC ineligible to "win" anyway.
The front seven on defense will be very formidable, even in the Pac 12 (the trenches is where BCS teams usually dominate non-BCS schools, but Utah is not little, slow, or any of the other weaknesses typically associated with non-BCS schools!). The secondary, however, will be tested in a traditionally pass-happy Pac 12. I would expect the front 7 to help the secondary in their progression by stopping opponents' rushing attacks and pressuring the QB in passing situations. With Robert Anae taking over at Offensive Coordinator at Arizona, Utah should be able to shut them down and knock out one of the two main competitors for the Pac 12 South.
Offensively is where the bigger issues will lie. They were able to lean on a lot of the littler defensive fronts in the MWC. They won't be able to push Pac 12 fronts around as easily. It is a very big and experienced O-Line, however, and if Cullen is really 20 pounds heavier at Left Tackle, the line should hold its own. They have experience, but little depth, in the passing game. They have a stud freshman RB, but how much will they have to rely on him and can he handle it if it is a lot? The addition of Norm Chow as Offensive Coordinator helps, and hurts, the Utes. He knows how to attack Pac 12 defenses, having spent so much time in the Pac 12. However, Pac 12 defenses also know Norm Chow very well. And he stunk up the place at UCLA the past few years, with much more gifted athletes than what he has at Utah this season.
I believe that Utah will surprise a lot of people in the Pac 12 with how talented they truly are (at least with most peoples' expectations being low for a "non-BCS" school entering the Pac 12), but, if they can't average 24 or more points/game, they are probably looking at a 6- or 7-win season. If they manage to get things rolling on O, there is no reason to believe they won't win 8 or 9 games and the Pac 12 South. However, the offense really could hold Utah back in 2011, unless the defense really shines. Most years I look at Utah's offense like I do BYU's defense: they look like they could be good, but they just don't ever seem to put it together, with the lone exception the 2003-2004 teams.
However, watch out for the Utes in 2012. I think this year's team looks a lot like the 2003 and 2007 Utes that set the stage for BCS runs in 2004 and 2008. They need 2011 to develop a little more depth at RB and WR, and to prepare the heirs on the DL and at LB to replace the 4 senior starters they will lose in the front seven after 2011. Were I a Ute fan, I wouldn't "give up" on the 2011 season by any means, but the 2012 season definitely has a good chance to be a memorable one.
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