BYU Scheduling Notes

I'm sure anyone reading this right now has heard that BYU and Southern Mississippi have agreed to two games, the first in 2014 in Provo, and the second in Hattiesburg in 2015.  I think it's a good series.  It is two quality programs squaring off.  BYU fans should believe that BYU will win both games, while Southern Miss fans should believe they could win both games.  That's exciting.  However, that is not the purpose of this current post...I like the series.

BYU's 2012 schedule is "nearly complete" according to Bronco Mendenhall.  BYU is missing the final two pieces of the puzzle.  BYU has 4 scheduled home games and 6 scheduled road games.  So the two games left are both going to be home games, unless ESPN flexes its muscle and gets a game moved for BYU.  BYU has 6 quality opponents on the schedule already (Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, and at Notre Dame), so, at most, BYU would only be looking for one more.  My guess would be ESPN will try to help them get a decent name school on September 29th, 2012.  The other game will probably be a "pay day" game (either a I-AA or small non-BCS school with an opening) the end of October or early November.  It's a little too late in the game (and there are too few early season weekends available) to get two big names to agree to games in Provo.

2013 presents a similar conundrum.  BYU already has home games against Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, and Utah (is it too early to order my season tickets for 2013?  Wow!).  They have road games at Hawaii and Notre Dame.  BYU will probably add one or two more bigger names, maybe they go for broke with 3, probably mostly on the road, but most of the rest of their 2013 scheduling is going to be smaller schools.  I do think 2013 may be the first year BYU adds a Mountain West Conference school, especially since BYU may be willing to start a two-game series with a road game in 2013, with a return trip in 2014 or 2015.  I'm looking at New Mexico, SDSU, or Wyoming as the most likely scenarios.  I know Brady Hoke said SDSU would never play BYU again, but he's gone and Rocky Long isn't Brady Hoke.  I could see him actively pursuing a game with BYU, particularly if they can get the Cougars to San Diego first.  Rocky is a classy guy and he was a mentor to Bronco Mendenhall.

2014 has its road games on the schedule already, so BYU is looking to add only home games.  BYU is at Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, UCF, and Utah.  The only home game is the aforementioned Southern Miss game.  Hawaii is on the schedule but the location is TBD.  Bronco said that he wants to play 7 homes games each season.  By my count, that's 6 to go (either Hawaii is a home game, or BYU will play at Hawaii and be eligible for a 13th game, i.e. 7 home and 6 road games)!  BYU has 7 perennial bowl teams on the schedule in 7 games.  So I wouldn't expect more than 2 more similar-type teams.  There have to be easier games on the schedule too.  Even the great SEC teams have 4 or 5 games they should win by 3-4 TDs between their non-conference schedule and Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

As far as scheduling rumors go: I wouldn't believe them.  There have been internet rumors that BYU is playing just about anyone and everyone.  Don't buy into it.  BYU is probably in discussion with just about anyone will to talk to them about games, and that's where the rumors start.  Being in discussions about scheduling is different than having games scheduled.  Remember BYU has to get 12 games a year for the next 8 years (in four seasons they will likely be eligible for 13 games).  They only have contracts for 41 games out of the 100 they'll have in those 8 years.  They better be talking with at least 30-40 teams.  And realistically, they should be talking to about 60 teams in the hope that they can get deals done with the 30-40 teams they'll need in order to get that all filled.

I would anticipate BYU will schedule with Utah State for at least 4 more games in that period.  I would anticipate BYU to get at least 2 of the "2-for-1" deals Tom Holmoe mentioned at Media Day.  Who the opponent will be is anyone's guess at this point (and there are a lot of people guessing, and they are making a lot of guesses too).  There, I have scheduled 10 games for BYU...

ESPN will probably continue to work on neutral site locations.  However, what BYU really needs is people to travel to Provo.  They can't schedule many 2-for-1 deals.  They can't take too many neutral site games.  They probably can't afford to take any one-and-done road games unless it is an Ohio State, Alabama, Florida-type team.

Another anticipation that I have from BYU's schedule is to see some Big Ten teams.  They have to make something work with a Big Ten team.  They can't afford stay out of the Midwest (besides the four trips to Notre Dame).  Even if they add a former Big XII North team, they have to get a few games in the middle of the country.  I would also anticipate some Big East teams in the future.  But both of those are probably farther out.  BYU's biggest need is to fill its schedules the next two years, and I expect a lot of rummies getting added those years before we see much in the way of big name programs being added down the road.

Dabble in the rumors if it is fun for you, but don't expect a high rate of return, or satisfaction on those.  Keep in mind that the places purporting these deals said that some were done, and that BYU was just waiting for the right time to announce them.  Well, a week ago BYU held its Media Day, and didn't announce a thing.  That seems like it would have been the perfect time.  Now, here we are, a week later and BYU makes the big announcement of a game with...Southern Miss.  The people spreading the "news" have been wrong enough the past 6 months to make me feel like they don't have any more inside info than I do (and I have none, but I can think, perhaps that is where my advantage lies).  Rumors of series with Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, UCLA, USC, and Arizona State may end up being right in part, and may be really fun to think about.  But I would be shocked if BYU played more than 4 or 5 of those 7 schools in the next decade.  And I wouldn't waste my time on it.  Stick to the facts, and you'll be less disappointed.  The fact, right now, is that we are 6 weeks and 1 day away from kickoff!