BYU actually got a pretty good draw for opposing QBs this season. They don't face any of the upper echelon stars of the college game. In fact, probably only 4 of the QBs they will face are probably in the top half of FBS QBs in 2011. They have a couple of "stars in the making" on the schedule, but they have their own one of those as well. They face a few mobile QBs, but they will see mostly drop-back passers. Keep in mind, my rankings reflect not just the starting QB, but also takes into account the depth at QB.
1) Hawaii
2) Oregon State
3) Utah
4) Texas
5) UCF
6) TCU
7) Ole Miss
8) Idaho
9) New Mexico State
10) Utah State
11) San Jose State
Hawaii's Bryant Moniz is the most polished QB BYU will face this season (no doubt a relief to their defense that a former walk-on, former pizza delivery man is the best QB they will see this season). He is mobile and tough, which can cause fits with Hawaii's 5-wide, spread, run-and-gun passing attack, because there simply aren't enough defenders to cover 5 guys while keeping an eye on the QB. He threw for over 5,000 yards last season, completing 65% of his passes, with 39 TDs to only 15 INTs. Because Hawaii throws so much, I would anticipate similar video game-like passing numbers from Moniz this season. He is backed up by another senior, Shane Austin, who is in his fourth year under the tutelage of Offensive Coordinator Nick Rolovich. They are an experienced bunch already, and they'll have 12 more games under their belts before playing BYU.
Junior Ryan Katz returns as the starter for Oregon State, his fourth year in the program, all under the brilliant offensive geniuses (or is it genii?) Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf. He completed 60% of his passes last year, for 2,401 yards, 18 TDs, and 11 INTs. And that was with his best receiver hurt most of the season. He has a very experienced group of WRs, behind what should be a pretty decent OL. He is backed up by third year sophomore Cody Vaz.
Utah's Jordan Wynn returns from surgery this offseason after an average sophomore season. He has been in the program for 2.5 years already and showed some signs of excellence early last season (before suffering a shoulder injury at Iowa State). He has 15 career starts, has thrown for over 3,600 yards, with a 60% completion percentage, 25 TDs, and 14 INTs. The backups have some time in the program, but have no significant game experience (Tyler Shreve has never suited up for Utah after some off-the-field issues prior to the 2010 season). If Wynn gets hurt, Utah is in trouble.
I suppose that begs the question of why I have Texas below Utah: I just said the Utes have an above average QB with no back-up. Texas has two guys that could start for the University of TEXAS. The problem is: one of them stunk up the place last season (Garrett Gilbert had 10 TDs, 17 INTs), and the other (Case McCoy, younger brother of Colt) only has one pass attempt in his career. The other reason I put Texas here: Texas hasn't really picked a starter yet. I think having a clearly defined #1 guy with experience gives you an advantage over a potentially better QB situation where there is nothing clear. Also in the mix is redshirt freshman Connor Wood and incoming freshman David Ash who was at Texas in the spring. They are deep in talent, but shallow in leadership. Until a leader emerges, Utah edges them out in my rankings. They are also dealing with a new offensive coordinator this season: he is a good one, for sure, but he's still new to these guys.
UCF returns dual threat sophomore QB Jeff Godfrey. Last season Godfrey had more of a run-first mentality, but he still completed 67% of his passes for 2,159 yards, with 13 TDs to 8 INTs. He also added 10 rushing TDs. He was Conference USA's Freshman of the Year last season, after leading UCF to a C-USA Title and 11-3 finish. He supposedly beefed up a bit in the offseason as well. He needed to: the Knights cannot afford to lose him to injury. He is backed up by redshirt freshman Blake Bortles, with WR Rob Calabrese at #3 on the depth chart. I don't think he'll have as big of a green light to run, in light of that fact.
Andy Dalton was a HUGE key to TCU's success the past 3 seasons. Replacing him will be very difficult, and why I believe TCU will not win 10 games this year, though I realize I am alone in that opinion. Taking the reigns is sophomore Casey Pachall, who has very limited experience. He may have more "potential" than Dalton did at this point in his career, but the guy hasn't taken a meaningful snap in college yet. They don't have any experienced backups anywhere either. Pachall may be a good player, but there is a reason experience matters as much as it does at the QB position.
Ole Miss' QB situation is a bit of a mess. They have a JC transfer that wasn't good enough to be the back-up last season for a 4-8 team. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at Louisville. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at West Virginia. Now granted, these are guys that COULD be good. But, like Casey Pachall for TCU, until they have proven it in games, there is just potential. I also believe the fact that Ole Miss didn't name a starter after spring hurts too. No guy got starter reps in spring. No guy gets starter respect from other skill position players in the offseason. No guy will get starter reps early in fall camp. For BYU fans, this should sound familiar, and that turned out a bit nightmare-ish for the Cougars. I don't expect, in game one, that the Rebels will win the QB battle against BYU.
Idaho has a new starter in Brian Reader, but he's a senior in his third year in the program. He had some experience as a spot starter for the 8-5 Vandals team in 2009 (including throwing for over 300 yards against Boise State). He is the kind of guy a coach doesn't mind using in a transition year as he grooms his next multi-year starter. He's been around the block. He's a pretty good QB. He has some good weapons around him. He has NFL size. And everyone expects big things (down the road) from redshirt freshman Justin Podrabsky, who is listed as #3 on the depth chart post-spring. As near as I can tell from Moscow, he's really 2b at this point, and with a good fall camp, he may very well take over as #2. He is the QB of the future in the dome.
New Mexico State returns all three QBs that started last season. Andrew Manley is the heir apparent, the man supposed to remind NMSU Aggies fans of Chase Holbrook, but he's still just a true sophomore. He completed just 52% of his passes last season (in the WAC) and had 1 TD to 6 INTs (again, in the WAC). So while the good news is that they have 3 guys with game experience, the bad news is it's the same guys that played last season and combined for a 2-10 record. The "depth" may be no worse than the starter, so from a depth standpoint, they are set. From a talent standpoint, they are a bottom-feeder WAC team.
Utah State may have the better collection of QBs, when compared with New Mexico State, however, unlike NMSU, they haven't named an official starter and none of the 3 guys in contention have any career pass attempts. The good news for Aggies fans: whoever emerges as the starter will be around for a while, as the guys in contention are Junior (JC transfer) Adam Kennedy, redshirt freshman Alex Hart, and true freshman Chuckie Keeton.
San Jose State has more experience than Utah State but haven't named a starter yet. And the experienced players (senior JC Transfer Matt Faulkner and sophomore Dasmen Stewart) are likely to be #3 and #4 on the depth chart. It's quite plausible that BYU will face a true freshman in game 6 (and a 2-star recruit at that). But, hey, San Jose State isn't going to get good recruits, the best they can hope for is that they have an experienced QB, which they won't have in 2011.
I would slate BYU's QB situation right around Utah at #3. After the Utah game last season, I thought Heaps was clearly the better QB, only to find out a few days later that Jordan Wynn had been playing hurt and had season-ending surgery, so all I really knew was that Heaps at 100% was clearly better than Wynn at 60%. Wynn should be back to 100%, so that changes things. Wynn is getting his third OC in three years, while Heaps is getting his second in two (though his new OC was his QB coach last season). Both of them have been through two sets of spring practices (Wynn was injured and didn't participate in 2011).
Certainly BYU has a better situation with their depth with Riley Nelson, James Lark, and Jason Munns, as they were more highly recruited players with more time in the program than what Utah has right now. But I believe Wynn and his 15 starts trumps Heaps and his 10, six of which were against bottom 30 defenses. Watching Wynn over the past two years, sometimes he is just uber-efficient, probably 4 or 5 times a season I look at his stat line in awe, he'll be like 80% with 250 yards and 2 TDs. We've only seen uber-efficient Heaps twice, but, while both were away from home, they were both were against atrociously bad defenses. Texas hasn't seen an uber-efficient performance from any of the QBs on the roster. As of now, Wynn is the best QB among those three schools, BYU has the best depth, and Texas has the best "recruits" (which doesn't really count for anything, and why I rate them at the bottom of the pack).
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