Final Expansion Thoughts

First off, if any BCS conference invites any non-BCS team, that team is accepting the invite.  There has been speculation that somebody would turn down an offer.  Nobody or institution is that stupid.  You take the money and are content moving to the bottom of the standings.  Utah would never turn down an offer from the Pac 10.  BYU would never turn down an offer from the Big 12 (unless the invite came with a "you must play on Sundays" mandate).

Secondly, if the Pac 10 expands to 12, I don't see any scenario where they don't take Utah.  The rest of the Pac 10 won't allow another California school (as if they were attractive options anyway), and Colorado needs a nearby travel companion (and CSU isn't up to par athletically for the Pac 10).  I also don't see any scenario where they would take BYU.  Furthermore, I don't see any scenario where Utah is competitive in the Pac 10/12 in football or basketball for quite some time.  The football program is in much better shape to be competitive, but the big issue with Utah under K-Whit is remaining focused from week to week.  Utah always gets up for the big game but frequently lets lesser competition play with them.  With more big games each season (Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State) and with lesser competition that is more competitive (Washington, UCLA, Arizona), the losses would probably add up a lot faster.  I think they would still make bowl games each year, but conference titles, dougle-digit wins for a season, and BCS games are much less likely.  Basketball: they are not even in position to be competitive in the MWC, so the Pac 10 is out of the question.

Thirdly, adding BYU is a tricky proposition for any conference.  Because of BYU's standards, rules, and regulations, they came to the table with a list of demands.  Every other non-BCS team comes to the table hoping for scraps.  That's tough to compete with.  I do believe that if the Big 12 needs to add two teams, they'd be foolish not to have BYU in the top 3 (with TCU and perhaps Houston or New Mexico).  If you talk about academics, athletic prestige, stadium sizes, fan base, money, etc, there is no non-BCS team anywhere close to BYU when you wrap it all up into one presentation.  You also can't discount the Mormon factor, as much as you would like to think it isn't an issue in these days; days when a scrawny, awkward black child can grow up to become President of the United States: you just don't know how that is going to be evaluated.  Realistically however, the Big 12 just has to do a balancing act to determine if the demands BYU brings to the table are exceeded by the positives.  As a BYU follower, I believe what BYU brings to the table outweighs the demands that follow them wherever they go, but, as a fan and follower, I can't see things clearly and entirely from the Big 12 Executives' perspective.  No matter how objective you TRY to be, it is impossible to step completely out of your shoes and into another person's.  That's why the mock draft experts did such a poor job outside of the top 9 picks in the NFL draft: they aren't in the rooms with each team's ownership, they don't know what each team is looking for or at, and they can't see beyond their own biases.  It's the nature of sports.

Fourth, enough talk already: let's see some expansion in action!  The NCAA tourney got the ball rolling (thankfully it didn't roll too far!), let's see the Pac 10 or Big 10 make a move.  Soon.