Back to Hoops Again

Well, the deadline for underclassmen to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone.  There were only two MWC players involved: New Mexico's Darington Hobson and BYU's Jimmer Fredette.

Hobson is going to take the money and run.  He brings the same skill set to the NBA that Lamar Odom did as a rookie.  He will have to, as Odom has definitely done, improve in two major areas to earn time in the NBA: outside shooting and strength.  He was "strong" for a MWC SF/PF, but he won't get the job done at his current size at the next level.  Strength is probably going to be easier to improve for him than his outside shooting, so I would say he should do what Odom did: put on 20 pounds of muscle his first 3 seasons in the NBA.  He was a streaky outside shooter, so maybe hope isn't lost there.  Most sites project him as a late-first round pick.  This was a good move for him.  He might have improved his stock somewhat with another year in college, but it's doubtful he was going to end up in the lottery anyway.

Fredette is taking the other route, opting to return to school for another crack at improving his stock.  His superb ball skills and shooting ability put him as the number 2 or 3 PG in the draft, depending on who you trust, but it wasn't enough to guarantee a first round pick.  True to his word (which was kind of a ridiculous "ultimatum" for a slow underclassman PG), if he had no first round guarantee, he would be back for his senior year.  His toughness has been well documented as well as his clutch play.  However, he struggled mightily against the better, higher pressure defenders he faced, and nearly all of the players he would face in the NBA would be better than those who shut him down in college.  He could definitely improve his stock by another year in college.  Realistically, he isn't going to move into the lottery either, but he could move up into the late-middle of the first round.  Whether he does or not, we shall see.  If he has a phenomenal year, he could move into the top 20; if he has a better year, late first-round; if he has the same type of year, early second round; and if he sucks it up, he might not get drafted at all.

How it impacts the MWC race:
The MWC landscape is definitely changed from what it appeared to be at the end of the season based on the following semi-major events: Michael Loyd Jr. transferring from BYU, BYU landing high-profile JC Forward Stephen Rogers, Nate Garth transferring from New Mexico, 4 Utah players transferring out, Utah landing a quality JC PG, Fredette returning, and Hobson leaving.  BYU is losing some of its depth.  Utah is losing most of its proven offensive firepower.  New Mexico is losing 3 of their 8-man rotation instead of just 1.

New Mexico definitely loses its position as the MWC favorite.  Utah's slide down the standings probably continues into next season (though in their grind-it-to-a-halt type of O, if they have a PG who can create for himself and others, you don't want to underestimate them: I'm just not sure yet if Josh Watkins is that guy or not).  BYU still remains near the top and in the hunt.

BYU is probably my favorite to win the REGULAR SEASON conference championship at this point for the following reasons (SDSU is a close second):
1. Home dominance: BYU might lose one conference game at home.  Might.  But never more than one, and they often make up for it with a win at SDSU or (more rarely and less recently) New Mexico.
2. They beat who they should beat: BYU has not lost a game to anyone that finished in the bottom half of the MWC standings since Rose's first year at the helm.  That includes home, road, and conference tournament games.
3. UNLV and SDSU are probably too inconsistent to string together a championship run: each year these teams lose at least one game they have no business losing.  SDSU lost at Wyoming each of the past two years.  UNLV lost to Utah twice this past season and at TCU, CSU, and Wyoming the previous year.  Losing one game you shouldn't in this league is enough to separate you from that coveted conference title.  If New Mexico would have lost even one last year, they would have had to share the MWC crown.  For the past 4 years, this has been the case.

I think UNLV obviously has the leg up when it comes to the MWC tournament, playing at home (though SDSU has knocked them out each of the past two seasons).  SDSU is probably going to have the best showing in the NCAA Tournament, purely based on athleticism and experience.

Updated predictions:
1. BYU
2. SDSU
3. UNLV
4. New Mexico
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Air Force
8. Utah
9. TCU