MWC Tourney

New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force winner: this game shouldn't be close, but you never know with New Mexico.  Their biggest "weakness" is that they play to the level of their competition.  New Mexico trailed in the second half to EVERY team in the conference, several of them at home, excluding Wyoming (whom they beat by 2 on the road, but never trailed).  But they also won at BYU and at UNLV, something NOBODY else has done since Coach Rose and Coach Kruger joined the MWC.  Either way, I don't see New Mexico falling to either of these teams.  It is probably closer than it should be, like a lot of New Mexico's conference games have been, but New Mexico probably pulls out a 10-12 point win over Air Force or a 15-20 point win over Wyoming.  I think they will play Wyoming, because every time I pick Air Force to win, they lose...

SDSU vs. CSU: the Rams have lived by the 3 and died by the 3 this year.  That is a bad way to be in a tournament setting: 3-point shooting cannot carry you through a 3-game, winner-takes-all, tournament: particularly when you aren't very good in other facets of the game (i.e. offensive rebounding).  SDSU is playing well.  They want it.  They need it.  And they take it.  I'll put the spread around 8, with SDSU getting into the low-to-mid 70's, 72-64.

BYU vs. TCU: well, if TCU can shoot 83% for an entire game, they can beat BYU (that was their shooting % through 5 minutes and a 14-point lead over BYU on Saturday).  The problem is: you can't shoot that well all game.  You can somewhat throw the result on from Saturday's contest when projecting ahead to this tournament game.  BYU won't win by 30.  This could be a 15-18 point win however.  BYU probably steps off the gas pedal the last 5 minutes, but I anticipate a game in the low 80's for BYU, 83-67.

UNLV vs. Utah: with a season sweep, Utah is probably somewhat confident going into this game.  This game could go one of two ways (both are good for BYU): 1) UNLV comes out with vengeance on their mind for allowing Utah knock them off of the NCAA Tourney "locks" list and onto the bubble with two losses.  They shoot 60% from the field and drop 80+ on Utah.  2) Utah does present a lot of matchup problems for UNLV and it's a struggle, playing late into the night and scrapping to a close win.  UNLV is not a great shooting team, so if they have a lights out game on Thursday, the odds of them turning around and doing the same thing on Friday isn't very likely.  Or if the game is a nail-biter, drag-it-out, punishing, physical type of game, they will have to turn around and play BYU roughly 22 hours later, who will be better rested and more focused.  I don't think Utah can win this game, particularly if Foster and Tillie don't play (last I heard, Foster was "done" for the year, no word on Tillie).  Even if they do play, beating UNLV in Vegas AGAIN probably isn't in the cards for the slumping Utes.  Then again, it is Utah.  I say: Rebels by 20, 83-63.

That sets up New Mexico vs. SDSU and BYU vs. UNLV.  Fans want to see New Mexico vs. BYU in the championship game  I am not really confident it will play out that way.  SDSU beat New Mexico at home without Billy White and lost to them in overtime by 2 at the Pit.  Neutral site: I think SDSU can take it.  Not to mention that SDSU (who is currently projected to make the tournament) will not make it WITHOUT this win over New Mexico.  All of the "bracketologists" seem to agree on that point: if the season ended today, SDSU would be in, but the season doesn't end today and a loss to New Mexico would likely push them into the first four out (again).  In a game destined for mid-60's to low-70's, SDSU wins by 5, 72-67.  However, in games against Air Force and Utah, New Mexico benefited from some blatantly bad officiating down the stretch, if they get a little more of that, they'll be tough to beat!  Of course, what goes around, comes around, maybe New Mexico gets the rough end of the deal this time around...

For BYU, if you are ever to beat UNLV at the Thomas & Mack, this is the time.  UNLV has never lost in the Finals, but they have been susceptible to the early knockout, before their fans show up in droves.  I have described how I think they beat Utah: shooting amazingly well and dropping over 80 points.  They haven't shot over 50% two games in a row but a couple of times this season, and it wasn't against back-to-back defenses like Utah and BYU.  If BYU plays as a team, and Jimmer scores 20+ points, they win this one something like 82-74.  (If they go into scramble mode as they often do in big/tournament games, UNLV wins 86-75.)

This sets up BYU vs. SDSU in the Championship.  BYU is a better team.  They are a deeper team.  They would probably have a lot of success doing exactly what they did in the Marriott Center: run, run, and run some more.  SDSU just doesn't have enough players in their rotation to win 3 games in 3 days (7, maybe 8).  I think the winner of the BYU vs. UNLV game will win the tournament, regardless of whom they play, but I don't believe that SDSU is capable of beating either of those teams in this setting.  New Mexico is capable of beating either, but UNLV in a Final is a gimme for the home team.  And with BYU-New Mexico, given how nearly exactly even the two teams are (both games decided by 4 points or less), I don't see any way that New Mexico can get a 3-game sweep against them. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is beat a team 3 times in a season, particularly when you aren't that much better than the opponent, if at all.  But I digress.  Back to where we started: BYU beats SDSU 79-63 to claim the MWC Tournament Championship and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico gets a 3/4-seed in the West/South Regional.  BYU gets a 4-seed in the West/East Regional.  UNLV gets a 9/10-seed in the Midwest/East.  SDSU gets a 12-seed in the Midwest/South.  Of course, if the tourney plays out differently than I stated, those seedings are probably way off...I'll update as we go along, just like all of the Bracketologists do!