MWC NCAA Outlook

New Mexico:
Seed: 3
1st Round Opponent: Montana
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Marquette or Washington
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: West Virginia
How Far CAN They Go: There is no reason this team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16.  They could even beat West Virginia.  They were a fade-away bank 3-pointer at the buzzer from being being a 3 seed themselves.  If they manage to make the elite 8, Wisconsin will end their run towards the Final Four.
How Far WILL They Go: I think they likely get eliminated in the Second Round.  They've been able to win close games against MWC opponents.  No offense to BYU, UNLV, and SDSU, but Marquette is much better at closing out close games.  Washington has shown resilience in non-road games as well.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: New Mexico has had a lot of trouble dispatching inferior competition over the past 3 weeks.  If things are close down the stretch, we all have seen how Montana's Anthony Johnson can take over a game in the closing minutes: he scored his team's last 20 points in a come-from-behind win at Weber State in the Big Sky championship game.  The same Weber State team that clobbered the Utah team that New Mexico struggled against.  Confused yet?  Anyway, we are long overdue for a 3-seed upset in the first round (historically it happens 2 out of every 3 years and it's been 3 years since the last one).

BYU:
Seed: 7
1st Round Opponent: Florida
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: K-State or Kansas State or the Wildcats from Kansas State University
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Minnesota
How Far CAN They Go: After getting over the frustration of another under-seeding in the NCAA Tournament, I looked at the 10's and the 2's in the NCAA Tournament and I think BYU scored.  Florida is the 10 they matchup with the best, and Kansas State is the 2 that BYU has the best chance of beating (no way they could stop Evan Turner, Scottie Reynolds, or De'Sean Butler).  If they can get past Florida and K-State, it would set up an intriguing matchup with Minnesota, whose starting center is the son of Ralph Sampson Jr, who played at the University of Virginia in 1981 and practically single-handedly knocked Danny Ainge and the BYU Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament during their biggest, most magical run ever in the Tourney.  Playing K-State in Oklahoma may appear to be a homecourt advantage for K-State, however, with Kansas playing the game immediately following, a lot of KU fans could be there to cheer AGAINST K-State.  I think at best, it's a neutral court.  BYU could get to the Elite Eight and try to exact revenge on the Syracuse McNamaras, I mean, Orange, in Salt Lake City.  With their ability to shoot the 3 against the 2-3 zone, a win there isn't out of the realm of possibilities.  This is all a theoretical exercise.  They COULD get to the Final Four.  I'm not a nut: the Wall Street Journal and a writer from SI predicted this.  Joe Lunardi has BYU in the Elite Eight.  (A lot of the other "experts" have a first-round exit, however.)
How Far WILL They Go: I look to see them get to Saturday this time around and falling to the foul-mouthed Frank Martin and his K-State Wildcats.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: They haven't done it in the last 7 tries, spanning 18 years.  The 7 seed loses roughly one out of every 3 games, so BYU is a likely candidate to make sure that holds true.

UNLV:
Seed: 8
1st Round Opponent: Northern Iowa
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldridge, the Morris Twins, Xavier (Zavi-ay) Henry
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Michigan State
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round
How Far WILL They Go: First Round Exit
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Northern Iowa's strength matches up with UNLV's strength: their halfcourt O.  The reason UNLV can beat a team like BYU 8 consecutive times at home is because BYU isn't as efficient in the halfcourt offense.  The Panthers excel in the halfcourt, and they prefer the grind it out, bore you into submission type of game: kind of like the Utah Utes, but with talented players and a good coach.

SDSU:
Seed: 11
1st Round Opponent: Tennessee
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Georgetown or Ohio
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Ohio State, maybe Georgia Tech
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round against Georgetown, but they have no answer for the big-bodied Monroe for the Hoyas.  I'm not sure anybody does besides KU.
How Far WILL They Go: They already are as far as they are going.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Tennessee has the best collection of wins of anybody outside of the top 2 seeds and Purdue.  They are well-coached, they've been there before, and even if Billy White stops Wayne Chism, there are several other scoring options that SDSU won't be able to slow down.  Maybe next year, SDSU.

Overall: 2-4
First Round: 2-2
Second Round: 0-2
Well, this was a "banner" year for the conference, but it sure has a ways to go...I hope they prove me wrong (at least BYU and SDSU, I hope UNLV and New Mexico get obliterated in the first round).