1st Round MWC Predictions

New Mexico dispatches Montana, 72-61.  Not much to say here.  If New Mexico isn't ahead by double-digits late in the game, well, they might just not win this one.  They will, though, by at least 10.

BYU controls the tempo and knocks Florida from their first tourney since back-to-back titles 3 years ago, 76-69.  I am not confident in BYU's margin of victory, but I am supremely confident in their victory.  Unlike previous 1st round exits, BYU is CLEARLY the better team in the matchup.  Florida does not have a dominant big man that will rebound and score whenever he feels like it, they don't have a lights out 3-point shooter that can get hot and go on a run all by himself, and they don't have a slashing point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants and has a pull-up J to boot.  Those are the 3 types of players that have taken over the games and beat BYU the last 3 years.  Florida has none of the above.

UNLV drops one to Northern Iowa.  I think the Panthers will be a little rusty out of the gate, having not played in nearly two weeks, but UNLV is coming off a frantic 3 games in 3 days and will run out of gas.  UNI is great in the halfcourt and will be able to turn the Runnin' Rebels into the can't get out in transition at all Rebels.  UNI 54, UNLV 48.

SDSU puts up a noble effort, but Tennessee is just a superior team.  This one certainly could be an upset, but I don't like SDSU's ability down the stretch to make plays.  In a tight game, they often run out of gas playing only 7 guys, miss free throws (under 70% on the season), and get lazy on the boards.  Add in the nerves these guys will be feeling in their first NCAA Tourney game, and it's tough to imagine a scenario where they can win on this big stage.  Tennessee pulls away late, 68-60.  If they can find a solid PG, I like SDSU's chances next year, however.

I'm open to your arguments, disagreements, predictions, etc.  I think I'm right.  UNLV gets upset, BYU and New Mexico do not, and SDSU falls in a valiant effort.