MWC Hoops recap and look-ahead

New Mexico:
New Mexico has to be pleased with their season: they won the conference championship and an NCAA Tournament game, and Lobo's were awarded MWC Coach and Player of the Year.  They won 30 games.  They were a solid team that figured out how to win close games on pretty much every occasion, except the MWC Tourney semis against SDSU even with the men in stripes trying to keep them in the game...

If NBA defections don't hit them hard (Dairese Gary and Darington Hobson), they should be poised for another run next year.  Roman Martinez is the only loss to graduation.  Albeit, I think he truly was the crux of the team and his loss will be SIGNIFICANT, much more so than the loss of Hobson or Gary would be.  He may not have hit the game-winning shots or made game-winning defensive stops, but without his performance throughout the games, they would not have been in position for those plays to be made by Gary and Hobson.  They have a few incoming freshmen that look like they are going to be able to contribute early and often for them, including a big man down low who is rated the 6th best Center in the country and is an ESPN top 100 player.  They have two shaky commitments from players that are supposed to be high quality, but until they solidly commit/sign, those two are unknown.  New Mexico doesn't NEED them, but it's always nice to have solid 11th and 12th guys on your roster, just in case.

The one concern I have for them next season is the law of averages: this season, they won 3 or 4 games they easily could have lost.  They struggled to put opponents away and never really blew anybody out.  Maybe part of that was youth, maybe part of that was motivation, maybe part of that is that Alford (and his team for that matter) lacks character and the basketball gods were punishing him.  Either way, the longer you let teams hang with you, the more confidence they have and anything can happen with a one-possession game in the final minute.  I certainly think they will be an NCAA Tournament team.  I am not as confident in their ability to repeat as champions.  You could see the last 4 or 5 games of the season, they didn't play as well with the target on their backs as they did as the upstart, underdog looking for respect.  They will have to play the entire season next year with that target.  If either Hobson or Gary leave for the NBA, I think their chances for a conference championship are definitely gone.  A trip to the NCAA Tournament would be in jeopardy as well.

UNLV:
UNLV should be disappointed with their season, they definitely underachieved.  They should have competed for a conference championship, but finished 3 games behind champion New Mexico and were 2 games out of 2nd place.  Add to that a loss at home in the MWC Tournament and a first-round exit from the NCAAs, and they can't feel like they had the type of season they had hoped for.  They did lose a starter to injury midway through the conference season, but two losses to THIS YEAR'S Utah team is inexcusable, no matter what your injury situation was.

They bring a solid core of players back from the team that played Sweet 16-bound and KU-Upsetter Northern Iowa tough in the tourney (8 of the 10 in their rotation) plus Derrick Jasper, who started for 21 games of the season, will return from his knee injury.  So they have 9 solid players.  With their up-tempo, aggressive, attacking style of play, 9 players probably won't be enough to sustain them for a 30-game grind.  In addition, several teams will have the confidence to give them a run for their money at the Thomas & Mack (BYU nearly knocked them off in the MWC Tourney, SDSU did knock them off in the MWC Tourney, and Utah went 1-1 against them at the T&M).  In the 5-year history of the 9-team MWC, the conference champion has never lost more than 1 conference home game, and twice the champ has been undefeated at home.  Considering that they have only won ONE MWC conference championship in 11 years, I think it unlikely they can pull it off next year with SDSU on the rise, BYU returning 8 solid players from a 30-win team, and New Mexico defending its title while returning 9 of 10 players.

SDSU:
SDSU really got things going late in the year.  They shut down UNLV on their home floor in the conference championship game.  They nearly pulled off the upset of eventually Elite Eight-bound Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  They had the most dominating freshman in the conference.  They have the most decorated coach in the conference.  They played most of the year without one of their top 8 players, Tim Shelton, who should return from his injury next season after playing in only 9 games this year.  They lost Billy White twice to sprained ankles and still managed to beat conference champion New Mexico by 10 without him.  If they had started the year better, they could have been positioned for a better showing in the NCAA Tournament.  The loss at Saint Mary's looked a lot better after their Sweet 16 run, at Pacific and at Wyoming were both pathetic no matter how you dice it, and the loss to Arizona State isn't embarrassing, but it's a game they would have liked to get.  All in all, they did about as well as they were supposed to, but it took a late-season surge to get there.

The main problem with them winning a conference championship is by far their biggest disadvantage, and one that they can't do anything about, no matter what kind of players they recruit: altitude.  New Mexico, BYU, Utah, CSU, Air Force, and Wyoming are all up above 4,200 feet above sea level.  This year, where they lacked depth anyway, it was a problem.  They beat New Mexico TWICE when the games weren't played at over 5,300 feet in Albuquerque.  Next year could be Fisher's best SDSU team yet, but he needs a deeper team to win a conference championship.  If the incoming freshmen play well and Shelton stays healthy, they might just have the depth they need.  SDSU's freshmen always play well.

The MWC preseason media and coaches poll will probably place these three the same as they finished this year: New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU but I don't think it will play out that way.  BYU is going to be the wild card as they sustain the heaviest losses of the top 4.  I'm certainly not ruling BYU as a contender (you can't rule anybody out who has only lost 4 home games in the past 5 seasons), but I'm going to put them as the least likely of the 4 to win the MWC as of today.  I'll need to see how the Collinsworth brothers play before I can make a solid prediction on how BYU is able to do next year.  The BYU 2010-2011 men's basketball preview is still to come.

MWC Preseason Poll probably looks like this:
1. New Mexico
2. UNLV
3. BYU
4. SDSU
5. CSU
6. Utah
7. Wyoming
8. TCU
9. Air Force

Without seeing the schedules, seeing who transfers from their school or leaves for the NBA, knowing how good the new kids are, or how out-of-shape return missionaries are, I think next year's MWC probably ends up like this:

1. SDSU
2. BYU
3. New Mexico
4. UNLV
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Air Force
9. TCU

I am higher on SDSU and BYU and lower on UNLV and Utah than the MWC idiots will be.  I don't think any of those who finished in the bottom 5 this year are going to be capable of breaking into the top 4 next year.  There is not enough talent to make a sustained run through the MWC with an above .500 record.  Maybe CSU breaks through, but I doubt it: they lost to everyone ahead of them in the standings TWICE.  Until they can beat one of the big 4 in a single game, I don't see how they can beat any of them in the standings.  Wyoming will be better than Utah because of coaching and attrition (Utah is losing 2 players to graduation, and 3 or 4 players will likely transfer out of the program) and Air Force jumps up a slot ahead of TCU (maybe even two slots if Utah gets hit really hard with transfers).

I like Jimmer to be named as preseason player of the year.  Alford or Kruger will probably be preseason coach of the year.  David Foster at Utah as preseason defensive player of the year.  I really like Foster.  I just wish he had a good coach who could let him flourish, develop, and lead instead of one who constantly holds his players back with his antics and tries to be the team captain instead of the coach.