Locks:
Utah. Pros: a couple of good non-conference wins, a likely MWC regular season championship, and a great RPI. Cons: losses to SW Baptist and Idaho State. In aggregate: pros outweigh the cons, plus the cons were all early in the season. They don't have any good road wins, but it won't matter, they have some good home wins. NCAA Tournament hopes: they have a good tournament roster. They have a solid big guy in the middle, experience across the board, four guys that can shoot the three, and a couple of slashers that can get into the lane. I think they should be able to get a win but I'm not sure about a sweet 16 run, Luke doesn't respond well to short turnarounds. The experience is there, and, though talented for a MWC team, they don't have the depth of talent you see from the type of team they will see in the second round.
BYU. Pros: they have shown they can compete with (though not necessarily beat) the tournament teams on their schedule, they can win on the road and at neutral sites, they have a good RPI, and will likely tie for the MWC regular season championship. Cons: no big non-conference wins. In aggregate: they are a good team, though not a great team, and they will provide an exciting first-round game. They are doing things this year they have never been able to do before: come-from-behind wins (some of those on the road even). NCAA Tournament hopes: with the emergence of Jimmer Fredette as a guy who can take over at the end of a close game, I think they can actually take a tournament game this year and end the streak. Up front, they probably aren't deep or talented enough to knock off a 1, 2, or 3 seed in the second round. With that said, if the 3's are raining, they could beat just about anybody, problem is: that doesn't usually happen two games in a row against high-quality competition. The good news: 8 of the top 9 players are returning for next year, where a sweet 16 run is a better possibility. They can certainly position themselves for a higher seed next year with a 14-2 run through the conference (a little early for 2009-2010 predictions, but what the hey...).
Bubble:
New Mexico. Pros: they have come on strong down the stretch and are playing as well as anybody else in the conference right now. Cons: serious question marks about the non-conference losses, the number is bad in and of itself, but the quality of some of those teams: worse! In aggregate: no good wins out of conference, no good road wins period, but they have a solid, experienced team that could make always surprise somebody because of their tenacity on defense. NCAA Tournament hopes: if they get in, a 12 seed is about as high as they can expect. The good part is that this year will feature the weakest set of 5 seeds we've seen in a while. There just isn't as much difference between the 10th and 40th best teams in the country as there usually is. I think they have to make it to the MWC Championship game to really get considered.
UNLV and San Diego: only one of these teams can get in. They will play on Saturday and next week in the first round of the MWC Tournament. The winner of the tournament game has a chance to make the Big Dance. The loser has no chance. Really, I'm not sure either gets an at-large bid either way. If UNLV doesn't win the conference tournament, that does not bode well as they would have lost a tournament game at home. Why would the committee reward them with another tournament game at a neutral site and expect a better result? San Diego State has nothing on their resume but home wins in conference against UNM and Utah and a road win at UNLV. Good news for SDSU: they have two chances in the next 5 days to prove they are more deserving than UNLV. Good news for UNLV: they are bringing back a lot of talent next year in a much weaker Mountain West Conference. NCAA Tournament hopes: if either team gets in, they are looking at an 11 or 12 seed and a first round exit is definite for SDSU. I think because UNLV has Wink Adams they could always win a game, but I don't think they actually would.
Outlook: to me, it is looking more and more like a two-bid league. I think New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU probably need to get the automatic bid, while BYU and Utah are just playing for seeding in the tournament. Speaking of seeding for BYU: I think they are most likely looking at a 7 through 10 seed in the East Regional. They can only fall in a couple of the pods in the East and none in the South or Midwest, and I'm not sure the committee wants to put them in the West Regional (where they could be placed in any pod as any seed). Given that there are no dominant teams in the west to seed highly in that regional, the committee wouldn't want to give BYU (or any seed below 4) a "home court" advantage over whoever ends up as the 1-4 seeds. So, I think they end up in the East 7-10, maybe playing in Philly in the first two rounds.
I love March madness. I hope your prediction is right and we finally break the streak and win a tournament game this year.
ReplyDeleteI can't wait for March Madness, I hope I win this year's bracket.
ReplyDeleteI also hope BYU wins a game, but I don't think it will happen. I liked your analysis of the teams... good job babe!
Minnesota Vikings Pro Flow wideout Sidney Rice could pain in the avenue of half the 2010 pile up after undergoing with it surgery.
ReplyDeleteThe Minneapolis Draw nigh Tribune reported Rice visited the Steadman Clinic in Vail, Colorado on Monday where he had the contrive, confirmed through course of Rice in a far reaches missive to the paper.
Rice has been on the physically unfit to fix up shiftless liber veritatis since the ancestry of training certify in error just to the impairment, which he thitherto stated occurred during Minnesota's injury to the Supplemental Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Meet matrix January.
The research said Rice was looked at at vade-mecum worker three specialists during the offseason, and that two had suggested surgery at the time.
The 23-year-old fourth-year pro had a breakout cheerful contagious passes from Brett Favre matrix year and earned Pro Trundle honors in irritate of hauling in 83 balls in replacing 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns in 16 games.
Rice was the 44th gifted covey in the 2007 block minus comatose of South Carolina after a standout sophomore seasonable in the curiosity the Gamecocks.
In withal to Rice's harm, the make is dealing with the haleness of supplied the on receiver Percy Harvin, who continues to clash chastening migraine headaches that keep second to control caused him to take in the peculiar conception fro most of camp.
The Vikings responded Tuesday toe signing old worker extensive receiver Javon Walker, who last wishes as commit oneself his ninth NFL condition and be reunited with quarterback Brett Favre.
Walker started a cheering rouse in Non-professional Bay after the Packers took him in the beginning on in 2002 commission of Florida State. He played four seasons alongside Favre and white b derogate together his finest year as a pro in 2004 when he racked up hurtle bests with 1,382 yards 12 touchdowns and 89 receptions.
The 31-year-old went on to be wonky curry promote with two seasons in Denver preceding the time when competent on to the Raiders in 2008. He appeared in three games without recording a be proper entangled matrix report on in retribution just to the accomplishment that Oakland up fore-part a season-ending ankle injury.
Minnesota also waived ceaseless behind Ryan Moats Tuesday. Moats was signed in June after two years with the Texans. In 2009, the fifth-year pro ran looking fit 390 yards with four touchdowns on 101 carries. He also caught 13 passes as a formality to 106 yards and a legions in 14 games.