Since the NIT starts tomorrow night, I have to give a quick shout out before I post my NCAA commentary. Quickly, to answer a question posted previously, I am in favor of expanding the field of 65 with one play-in game to the field of 68 with 4 play-in games for all 16 seeds. I am operating under the assumption that at least one of the additional 3 spots would be given to a Mid Major team, which probably is not a valid assumption, but I would hope in the spirit of fair play it would occur. If it added Florida, Auburn, and Penn State to this year's bracket I would oppose it.
So, the Mid Majors that got ousted by the NCAA tournament committee have a chance to prove their merit in the NIT, kind of. 3 of the higher profile middies all ended up in the same bracket, with SDSU as the 1 seed, St. Mary's as the 2, and Davidson as a 6. So, only one of them can advance to the Final 4. Compare that with Florida and Penn State's brackets, which don't have any serious mid major contenders (Niagara gets a home game against Rhode Island before traveling to Penn State, then Florida, assuming they win the first two games). Auburn's side of the bracket also appears to give mid majors very little chance to get past the Tigers or Virginia Tech, with Tulsa the only viable threat. The fourth section pits Creighton (1 seed), New Mexico (3), and UNLV (5) with chances to make a run towards Madison Square Garden. The biggest obstacle there is Notre Dame, which gets AT LEAST two home games before having to go on the road at Creighton, assuming they hold serve. Other than being ranked in the top 10 preseason, I don't know what they did to warrant ANY home games in the NIT. With that said, I wouldn't be shocked at all if UAB marches in with Robert Vaden and takes down the Irish.
The MWC has a 1 seed in SDSU, a 3 in New Mexico, and a 5 with UNLV. SDSU should be able to get past Weber State with little difficulty. I think K-State/Illinois State could be a challenge in the second round, and I don't see them surviving through to the Garden. I think Davidson upsets South Carolina, and the winner of the St. Mary's-Davidson game knocks out SDSU.
New Mexico hosts Nebraska the first game. Nebraska did show some flashes of brilliance this season (when playing at home), but I don't think they walk into the Pit and leave victorious. I think they also leave not wanting to ever come back. I think defensively, they would surprise Notre Dame, and they might think they were playing one of those vaunted Big East defenses. They are that good on D. I'm not sure they'll be able to pull that game out on the road, but they'll give ND all they can handle in that game, and will be in a position to win it down the stretch.
UNLV plays at Kentucky. They will not be intimidated. They marched into Kentucky once before this season and beat the overall #1 seed in the NCAA tournament on their home floor, with UNLV's best player in street clothes. I think they can show people just how far Kentucky has fallen. With a win there, Creighton goes down next, then on to Notre Dame or New Mexico. I think they beat Notre Dame, UAB, or Nebraska, but lose if it's at New Mexico.
So there's the MWC rundown in the NIT. My final four is Davidson, Virginia Tech, New Mexico (I know, I said I didn't think they'll win at ND, but I'm going with my gut), and Penn State, with Penn State beating Virginia Tech for the title. Usually, the team that feels they got screwed the most by the selection committee lays an egg in the NIT. That would be St. Mary's this year (and possibly Florida). Of course, some years they just up and win the whole thing anyway. I don't think so with the Gaels, they've got a challenging run ahead of them. Florida obviously has a good chance with home court the whole way through, but they just aren't good, especially in tight games. Other teams to watch out for: South Carolina, despite what most of us believe they still play basketball in SEC country, sort of; Georgetown, they had a bad year but they are still Georgetown; Illinois State, always dangerous, and, as usual, under the radar; and Niagara, who played a close second to NCAA 9-seed Siena all season.
Next up: the numbers behind who got the shaft and who benefited merely from their associations/conferences.
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