Quick look at the brackets

1 vs. 16: never happened before, what are the odds you will pick it right when it finally does happen?

2 vs. 15: happens very rarely, but it does happen. It's usually an over-hyped ACC, Big East team against an Ivy League-er or something along those lines. If it were to happen in this field it'd be Binghamton over Duke. That is not a prediction, because I don't think we're in for that rare feat this year.

3 vs. 14: this is pretty infrequent, but it does pop up every couple of years. Kansas was the last victim losing to the Bison (of Bucknell). KU is playing the Bison again (of North Dakota State) and it is played in Minneapolis, which is the closest city to North Dakota. That is also not a prediction.

4 vs. 13: this happens about as infrequently as a 14 beating a 3. Xavier is not as strong this year, Washington drew SEC tournament champion Mississippi State, and Cleveland State played Butler tough in 3 tries, who is nearly as good as Wake Forest. There are 3 possible candidates for this rare upset, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one, but I'm also not picking any.

5 vs. 12: this will happen. First, look at the 12s to see if there are any talented teams. Wisconsin is out. The other three are still viable options, though Northern Iowa might be a little out of their league when compared with Arizona and Western Kentucky. Now look at recent tournament experience: Western Kentucky played and won twice as an 12 seed last year. Arizona has been to the dance 25 consecutive years. Northern Iowa makes frequent trips to the tourney from a mid major conference that has had success in the NCAA tournament. Next look at the 5s to see if there are teams that are overseeded, either due to hype early in the season, a frenetic run down the stretch, or some other unknown reason. Illinois is there because of early hype. Purdue is there because of a good stretch run. Utah is there for some other reason, b/c they didn't play great down the stretch (had a two-game lead with 3 games to go and ended in a 3-way tie for the conference championship) and they didn't get any hype all season, in this sport at least. Arizona over Utah or Western Kentucky over Illinois are your best bets.

6 vs. 11: this inevitably happens. Candidates: Utah State playing Marquette in Boise. Marquette is playing without 4-year starter Dominic James and lost 6 of their last 7 games. VCU is playing UCLA in Philly and this isn't exactly their first dance. UCLA never really got their act together this season after losing so much talent to the NBA. Some people say Temple over Arizona State, but I'm not so sure. They did have a great run through the A-10 tournament, but the A-10 wasn't as strong this year and Arizona State didn't do so bad in the Pac 10 tournament either.

7 vs. 10: sometimes I look at the teams and can't tell who is the 7 and who is the 10. This year, most all of the 7s fell to 7, after being projected higher for most of the season. California and Clemson peaked in late January. Texas peaked in December. Boston College was a constant rollercoaster ride (and probably is seeded too high as a 7 anyway). All of them could lose. USC ran through the Pac 10 tourney, I think they take down BC. Michigan beats Clemson. I'm not willing to call Maryland a winner, they seem to be loaded with talent every year and do just enough to get into the tournament. I think they can win, but I'll give Cal the benefit of the doubt (doesn't matter, either will lose to Memphis on Saturday). I don't see Tubby Smith's Gophers beating A.J. Abrams and the Longhorns either.

8 vs. 9: 9s actually win this game more often than not. So let me tell you the 8s I like: Ohio State, not because I like them but because the game is played in Dayton and I think Siena should probably be a 10 or 11 seed. I also like BYU because I attended there, oh, and because of Jimmer Fredette, who is the rare breed of player that most first-round-exiting BYU teams never had. This is the best BYU team in 25 years. They are better than last year's team that lost to Texas A&M in the final minute, and A&M is not as good a team as they were last year. That's it, I like the other 8s to go down. Tennessee probably should have been a 7 seed, which is bad luck for Oklahoma State in the Orange Bowl. Butler isn't as good as it has been, but they are probably seeded too low as well. Plus LSU isn't very good.

I won't go into second round and beyond. You'll have to figure that one out on your own for now, but I'll give you some thoughts as we advance. I do think that this is the most top heavy the tournament has been in a long time, maybe since I've been following (about 13 years). The 1s and 2s are so far ahead of the 3s and 4s (with the exception of Duke-the worst 2-and Kansas-the best 3-who are fairly even). The 5 seeds and the 11 seeds could all switch places and it wouldn't look all that odd. I think we're in for a bumpy ride early in the tournament, but when the dust settles by the elite 8, I think we'll see 3-4 1s, 2-3 2s, 1-2 3s, and maybe one Davidson/George Mason-like run from a double-digit seed (or maybe from an 8-seed in the West Regional!).