BYU's 2015 Seniors

8-5.  8-5.  8-5.

BYU Sports Nation has lived through three straight years of 8-5.  During BYU's off-season, if you read any quotes, watched any interviews, or followed BYU at all, you'd know the players believe a 4th consecutive season of 8-5 is not acceptable.  With this year's schedule, while 8-5 may not be acceptable, it is certainly possible, some might say probable, others might even suggest it's a bit hopeful.

While understanding that with missions, red shirts, gray shirts, transfers, etc. 4 years doesn't necessarily define a senior class, I looked at the best and worst 4-year records since LaVell started coaching in 1972 to see where this year's seniors would stack up in the tradition of BYU.

LaVell's first four-year group in 1975 went 25-19-1 for a winning percentage of 56.7%.  The following year's seniors went 27-18-1 (59.8%) over their careers.  The next 23 groups of seniors finished with winning percentages at 63.3% or better (in a 13-game season that equates to 8.25-4.75).  17 of those groups finished over 70% for their careers (9.1-3.9 or better).  7 of them finished over 80% (10.4-2.6 or better).  The post-Sarkisian seniors, finishing with LaVell's final season, had a rough go, finishing at 29-20 and 59.2%.  LaVell Edwards coached 26 groups of guys from freshmen to seniors.  23 of the 26 groups averaged better than 8-5 for their careers.  The first two groups and the last group didn't.  However, every other group under LaVell averaged better than 8-5 for their careers.

There are very few guys who were coached by Crowton that saw 8-5 in a season, let alone as an average for their careers.  So, throw the years out from 2002-2006.  Crowton was a disaster.

In 2007, guys who had Bronco Mendenhall as head coach for two years graduated with a win percentage for the 4-year seniors that crept back over the 63.3% mark to 67.3%.  In 2008, the 4-year win % was 74.5%, then 82.7%, 75.0%, then 73.1%.  Following that, the runs of 8-5 started.

Putting this into perspective, if BYU finishes at 8-5 in 2015, the seniors would be the 2nd worst group of seniors not coached by Gary Crowton since 1977.  They would be the worst group of seniors since 1977 not coached by Crowton or quarterbacked at any time by Kevin Feterek.  The players have their history right: 8-5 would not be an acceptable finish, given the tradition BYU has had over the past 40 years.

If BYU finished:
8-5: 61.5%, 34th out of 41 seasons (ahead of 1975, 1976, 2000, 2002-2006)
9-4: 63.5%, tied for 31st (tied w/2013)
10-3: 65.4%, tied for 28th (w/2014)
11-2: 67.3%: tied for 27th (w/2001)
12-1: 69.2%, tied for 23rd (w/1989, 2012)
13-1 (make playoff and championship game): 69.8%, tied for 22nd (w/1988)
13-0 (undefeated but no play-off): 71.2% tied for 18th (w/1992, 1999)
14-0 (undefeated and win championship): 71.7%, 18th

This year's team would have to play in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game or make the College Football Playoff for the seniors to finish in the top half of BYU senior class careers since 1975.  Doing so, however, would cement them as having probably the best single season in BYU history, even if they struggled over the course of their careers.  I'm going to state that any win total of 12 or above is unlikely, meaning that in the W/L column, Independence has not been kind to this group of players.