BYU has been having all kinds of trouble in pass defense the past 4 games, having given up four consecutive 300-yard passing games for the first time in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In their defense, Houston didn't even try to run the ball. In their disgrace, Utah State got to over 300 yards in only 25 attempts. The next two games they face seasoned, senior QBs.
Cody Fajardo comes in averaging 234 yards/game this season, completing 62% of his passes. Tomorrow will be making his 37th career start, and 15th career road start, against BYU. Last season against BYU, he had a bit of a ho-hum game: 22-31 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Does anybody believe this year's BYU Pass D is better than last year's? They really haven't been getting to the QB, they haven't been covering well down the field, and they always give up short throws on the outside. Fajardo is also mobile so if Takitaki abandons his contain assignment to rush up the middle, Fajardo will get to the edge and make the Cougar defense pay.
Three weeks ago, it looked like BYU and Utah were both back to what they had done best for the past decade under their respective coaches. BYU was scoring a lot of points, playing solid defense, and not killing themselves on special teams. Utah was playing opportunistic defense, not beating themselves with turnovers on offense, and utilizing special teams and trick plays to put points on the board. BYU was beating teams it was supposed to beat, Utah was combining stunning victories with baffling defeats. One of the teams is still being true to themselves, the other is BYU.
BYU's defense hasn't been able to make plays on first or third downs. Even when they play well on first and second down, they don't seem to have the ability to get a stop on third and long. Teams have moved the ball up and down the field, in chunks or in drives, whatever the offense needs to do, it could. What was supposed to be the most talented and deepest BYU defense ever stopped playing well in the 2nd quarter against Houston, then had a couple of guys get hurt, and now can't really stop anything or anyone. They don't look talented and they don't look deep. They look physical, they look big, strong, and fast, but they don't look competent.
Nevada, like Utah State, is not a good team. They thrive on playing a unique brand of offense that always keeps opponents guessing, especially those that aren't fundamentally sound (a hallmark of BYU defenses under Bronco Mendenhall until this year). It isn't flashy, it isn't done on the backs of a massive OL, or made possible by a lot of play makers. But they have been getting the job done on offense, at least keeping the team in the game.
Defensively, they haven't been. But the Cougars O has left a lot to be desired, even when Taysom was healthy. BYU has had some time to rest, recover, and regroup after two consecutive weeknight games. They need to get back to establishing the run game. Anae desires his go-fast-go-hard offense to be a physical rushing attack designed to wear opponents out. But outside the first 2.5 games, it has been obnoxiously balanced, or even pass-heavy. If they want to overpower a smaller defensive front, the Cougars need to come out running the football straight at the defense. This was the game plan against Texas. Against a BIGGER defensive front. It worked beautifully. But it really hasn't been in the game plans since then.
Jamaal Williams has been averaging over 5 yards/carry on the season. Those stats aren't skewed with a couple of big long TD runs. He averages 5.2 yards/carry: give him the ball twice and it's a first down. Yet he had 13 carries against Virginia and 16 against Utah State. I realize he's not 100% now, but he was in the Utah State loss. Another baffling stat to me is that Adam Hine, who by all appearances is one of the fastest guys on the team and is trusted to return kickoffs, yet he is on pace to have the same amount of carries as he did last year. I didn't even know he had ANY carries last season! I realize he's not 100% either (and may not play against Nevada), but he was the rest of the season. Algie Brown: averaging 5 yards/carry. He only has 29 carries on the season (thanks to 22 carries in the two games without Jamaal Williams). 3 great backs and a solid rushing attack, and yet BYU couldn't find a way to run the ball in the 4th quarter or in OT against UCF. They didn't even attempt it. [Probably b/c it wasn't a consistent attack so the D was still somewhat fresh in the 4th Q.]
I realize Anae wants to show confidence in Stewart and he wanted to let the country know that Taysom Hill could throw/win a Heisman, but run the dang ball. Run it often. Have an identity. Be a physical, bruising, running football team. That will give Stewart bigger and better throwing lanes and THAT will give him confidence. To me, just from a personnel standpoint, that was the obvious thing to do. It is only magnified by the struggles the defense has been having. BYU lost the time of possession battle 2-1 against Virginia and BYU came out throwing again the next game...I understand it's not always the easiest thing to make an adjustment mid-game. But there was a bye week and a loss to get your head out of your butt and see what the team needed to happen. Anae should know better and Bronco should ABSOLUTELY know better as a defensive-minded coach!
Against UCF, BYU ran zone read with a non-running QB, then threw two incompletions and punted. Multiple times. Right out of the gate! They need to establish the run. Or else Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores.
My prediction for this game: Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores. Christian Stewart will throw the ball 50 times, to just 25 rushes. BYU will lose in excruciating fashion. At homecoming, at night, in front of at least 53,000, but not exceeding, 58,000 fans. Nevada 41, BYU 13.
On a brighter note, BYU has a remarkably decent record in games I pick them to lose. However, I think this team is mentally worse than a typical BYU team, which I normally think of as not being very mentally tough. This team has the mental fortitude of a spoiled 12-year old girl. The defense doesn't have that same confidence and consistent ability to come up big when it's needed. Actually, remove consistent: they don't have the ability to EVER come up big. The offense has a couple of guys that can go out and make a play, but Anae never seems to dial up the right plays at the right time for those guys. Mentally, the guys just don't have toughness. A team that can win in Austin as badly as they did, shouldn't need to eke out wins over Houston and Virginia, nor have losses to Utah State and UCF. I know Taysom got hurt, but what were the other 21 offensive players on the two-deep doing in the offseason? What were the coaches preparing for in the offseason? Maybe they should worry less about having a special season and worry more about each game and each week. No more lip service about one game at a time. The Cougs need to actually take it one game at a time next season. Facing 2 senior QBs the next two games, I could see the season turning really ugly for the Cougs, and in a hurry too.
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