Over the past 10 years, (I wouldn't call myself a "Bronco apologist" but) I have come to Bronco's defense when I felt people have been overly harsh. While I still think some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to BYU football and Bronco Mendenhall, I am finding that I have two big beefs with Bronco.
1) According to Bronco, BYU has never been beat. The team just didn't execute at a high enough level. The coaching staff always had the right plays called. They always had the players properly trained and prepared. It was just the personnel that couldn't get the job done. That's crap. Some teams have better players, who work just as hard or harder, are coached as well or better: that is a fact of college football. But BYU has coaches are prone to make mistakes too. Bronco doesn't ever say that: the players always need to execute at a higher level. I'm sorry, coach, but you need to coach at a higher level too. You hold players accountable (or so you say, I don't recall Bronco ever benching anyone for poor "execution" he just talks about the bad execution after the game). Now it's time to hold Anae and Howell accountable. Howell needed to get more creative in his blitz packages in games against Houston and Virginia: so say that. Don't blame the players for not getting to the QB (or not covering on the back end). Anae should focus more on execution than on speed right now, especially if his current roster of players are having trouble performing at a high level. He needs to adapt to his personnel: he doesn't have a team captain, veteran leader at QB (or RB, or OL, etc.). So slow things down a bit, hurry up when necessary. Adapt. COACH!
2) Show some passion. The only time Bronco ever gets excited is when he's talking to national media guys about BYU's program. When he's lobbying for BYU to get into the P5, or the BCS, the Heisman, or the College Football Playoff he looks giddy. He talks about special seasons and cracks a smile. Then he gets on the sidelines and goes all LaVell Edwards stoic. It's a different game these days than when LaVell roamed the sidelines, these kids, especially at BYU, don't want football to be a business trip. Make it fun for them. Interact with them. Get excited with them and for them. Yes, a calm demeanor is generally a good thing, but sometimes your team needs a kick in the butt and you need to do it: Taysom isn't there. Craig Bills is out. Until some player steps up to be the vocal leader, Bronco needs to find some way to light a fire under these guys.
I think mentally BYU is in a very dangerous place right now. I thought heading into the season, and especially after the Ole Miss loss, that this isn't a typical Boise State team. Ole Miss turned out to be a juggernaut though. Boise has rebounded nicely and played well (excluding the inexplicable loss at Air Force), especially at home. They have a very balanced offensive attack and have played pretty solid defense. They have been tough at home, beating a better-than-expected Colorado State team and defeating rival Fresno State by double digits last week. This is a much more difficult test than I envisioned a month ago, and not just b/c BYU is struggling, but Boise is peaking.
With all that said, Boise State is beatable. Hedrick is prone to turn it over, registering 8 INTs in the Broncos' two losses. The offense also relies on him to do a lot of things with his legs. Add in Ajayi at RB and catching a lot of screens, and so much of their offense relies on those two players. If one of those guys goes down, that could spell trouble. Imagine if Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams both got hurt...oh wait. The most consistent thing about Boise has been the rushing attack, but it's very Jay Ajayi-focused. No other player has carried the ball more than 2 times in any game. Matt Miller is their medium to deep-ball threat, not necessarily because of his speed, but b/c he's like an athletic Mitch Matthews with great hands that runs good routes. I haven't heard for sure if he will play or not: he has missed the last two games but they thought he'd be ready to go by last week. Shane Williams-Rhodes is their other WR: he's very flashy and can do great things in space if he can find it.
BYU's D is stout against the run this year. It will be interesting to see strength-on-strength. Last year Ajayi had an "average" day against BYU with 150+ yards on 20+ carries. Most importantly, BYU kept him out of the end zone. I don't know that they can survive another 150 yards from him. He's also a great pass catcher and Boise likes those screens. BYU knows they need to get pressure and have had to blitz to get that done, so screens could hurt BYU, which doesn't play much man coverage, even when it blitzes. I figure Hedrick is going to throw for at least 200. If BYU's secondary plays as bad as it has at times this year, he could easily double that number to 400. So if you add 150 rushing yards to 200 passing yards, Boise should be in the game. Factor in the home crowd, now getting excited about the team again, and that should give Boise's O a little extra mojo too. The last time BYU went up to Boise, they held the offense without a TD. I think Boise's O is better this year and the BYU's D is worse. I figure that's worth at least 24-31 points for Boise State.
For BYU's O, Jamaal Williams is expected to play, though it's not 100% sure he will, this would be a great, and much needed, addition. With Mitch Matthews emerging in the passing game, Jordan Leslie still in the wings, and a Christian Stewart/Devin Mahina connection forming, BYU has some things working in the passing game. Colorado State and Nevada both had a lot of success through the air against Boise's secondary. Other teams have had great success running the ball against them too. So this isn't a shutdown defense by any stretch of the imagination. I normally want to see BYU be a little run-heavy, but I think a balanced approach would serve them well against Boise State. I don't think 50+ attempts for Christian Stewart is the answer, but, if that's what Anae dials up, I think it reduces BYU's chances of putting a lot of points on the board. BYU isn't capable of big-play TDs, so they'll need to sustain drives and be able to punch it in once they get to the red zone. That is easier with a balanced offensive attack, throwing the ball to move the sticks and running the ball to move the scoreboard. In goal to go situations, Christian Stewart throwing 3 straight fades to Mitch Matthews will end in one of two ways: FG attempt or touchback. BYU needs balance!
I think it's done though, I just don't think these guys have enough left in the tank to battle Boise for 4 long quarters. BYU will fight hard for as long as they can, but I think they fall short again, as has been the case with 2 straight 2 TD leads blown in the second half: Boise State 31, BYU 20.
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