BYU needs a fast start. They cannot afford to get behind. They need to run the football, play like a bunch of wild men on defense (and hopefully force turnovers, penalties, and sacks), and play field position. It would be a big ask for Anae to make Christian Stewart win the game in his very first start. Not that it's not possible, but UCF needs to be the one forcing him to win, not Anae.
That's what it takes. BYU starts slow: they lose. They need to believe they can win. They need "wins" early in the game. They need confidence again. They should run the ball 9 of the first 10 plays (and the other one should be a play-action pass). I don't care if that yields 3 punts. BYU has to establish the running game, or at least that they are going to run the ball. Lean on that defense, force them to play physical for 4 quarters.
I expect BYU comes out emotional. That's fine: if they build a lead with that emotion. I think the boys have been through a lot and it'll be tough to play a 4 quarter game tonight. My model, even without Taysom, has BYU as 11-point favorites.
I am not so optimistic. A 27-10 score wouldn't surprise me, and I could see either team being on the positive side of that score, but I'll go with UCF getting the 27, BYU 10.
BYU could still turn around and respond and win 9/10 games, but this is a tough game after a tough weekend.
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