Hey loyal readers, yes, all 8 of you that have been anxiously awaiting my next college football rant. Or waiting for me to jump off the Heat bandwagon onto the Spurs' one. I'm still here. I'm working on "quantifying my gut" for college football right now. I am essentially creating a mathematical model that will output what I think when it comes to preseason predictions. Because there are 126 teams, and no one pays me for this, this is taking quite a while. The early returns are looking promising though. It has spit out a couple of the teams I was eyeing as surprise teams. I think there are 3 or 4 good BCS buster candidates (Boise State isn't even one of them) and my model has predicted that same possibility. I believe the math and my gut are going to be pretty similar. I will also convert the model into a predictor tool to suggest what everyone teams' record will be. I will update it each week throughout the season and see how I do.
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
I suppose it would be different if all the role players (Ray Ray, Battier, Birdman, Mike Miller, etc) were all in their prime, then you'd have a truly great team. Heck I just noticed Rashard Lewis was on the end of the bench, imagine if he was the Rashard Lewis of old too. Still lack a PG and a true post presence...anyway, good analysis, as always.
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