As conference tournaments advance, most of us watch closely to see which teams lose and are eliminated (maybe not as close as Joe Lunardi, but he gets paid to do it). Over the past few days, several bubble teams have seen their chances slip as these teams have lost early and often in their conference tournament. As I posted a while back (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-bubble-2262012.html), I had 61 teams that I believed would make the NCAA Tournament, leaving just 7 at-large bids remaining, barring any major upsets in conference tournaments shrinking that number even further. There are two of my 61 that I may slightly doubt at this point in time, but I feel supremely confident in my other 59.
Seton Hall, since I locked them in has gone 1-3, with two losses to teams they had no business losing to: Rutgers and DePaul (a 2-2 record and they could still feel somewhat safe, but alas, the Mo Jinx came back to bite them). Mississippi State I locked in some time ago, figuring that they could beat Georgia at home and win at either LSU or Auburn. Instead, they lost all three of those games before losing to Georgia again in the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, I think they probably still make the tournament, since the Committee has emphasized that wins in November and December count just as much as wins in February and March. Both may be looking at play-in game scenarios at this point. Both could easily be playing in the NIT.
Now, back to those 7 spots and the teams I was considering for them. I was watching the following teams: Xavier, St. Joe's, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
I believe West Virginia and UConn from the Big East get in. USF lost tonight and is in a precarious situation now, especially with several bubble teams still in contention in conference tournaments.
NW, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado all eliminated themselves from at-large contention a while ago, but I hadn't updated my list yet (though some argue NW still had a shot until their loss today: I think they're a feel-good story that people WANT in the tournament but they don't really have the resume to justify it).
Texas scored the biggest bubble win of the day, beating an NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State.
Colorado State, Miami, NC State, UCF, and Arizona also all won on days when others lost, though none of them beat anything resembling a tournament team.
Oregon fell just short in a late comeback against Colorado, as did Washington against Oregon State.
Xavier and St. Joe's play on Friday after a while off. Xavier should be "safely" in the field with one more win. St. Joe's probably needs AT LEAST two (though if they win three they get an automatic bid, so).
Locking in WVU and UConn, that's 63 bids (assuming Seton Hall and Mississippi State truly remain in the field), leaving four remaining. Cal was my only lock from the Pac 12. They are one of the Final Four in the Pac 12 Tournament, but it is extremely possible that one at-large will be taken away by another Pac 12 team (CU split with them in the regular season, and led both games at halftime). I am assuming that the Pac 12 steals a bid, either Arizona or Colorado: 64 bids, leaving just 4 remaining.
Other teams drawing attention lately are Tennessee, Drexel, and Iona (who I thought would just win their conference tourney). If Tennessee doesn't win their conference tournament, they will have 14 losses, and, while I wouldn't put it past the Committee to include them, it seems a bit ridiculous to include a team with that many losses, including 4 to teams outside the top 100. I believe, based on last year's experience, that either Drexel or Iona will make the field as a play-in team, despite not appearing to have as strong of a resume as others. (I personally would like to see BOTH make it, because I believe Iona would have a great chance of having a VCU-like run in this tournament, but it's probably just going to be Drexel making the field). 65 bids: three remaining.
My money would be on Xavier, Colorado State, and Washington. Texas has a legit shot for sure. NC State is right there, especially if they can score a win over Virginia on Friday, which I believe they can do (Miami has a bit more of an uphill battle with Florida State, that is playing for the chance at a 4 seed). However, if Long Beach State doesn't win the Big West tournament, I believe they would make it as an at-large over any of these teams.
After looking this over, maybe Seton Hall and Mississippi State won't make the tournament, maybe Drexel either. These bids are really coming down to the wire. It's going to be tight.
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