Monday, March 12, 2012

Initial Thoughts on the Bracket

Selection
I really don't have any beef with the teams selected to be in the tournament.  I stated over the weekend that I really wanted to see Iona in the bracket over the likes of Seton Hall, NC State, or even Drexel, so I like the choice though many others don't.  I would rather see UW (Pac 12 regular season champ) over NC State (5th place in an extremely top-heavy ACC).  Great job by the Committee

Play-In Screw Up
I really think the tournament made mistakes when it came to the play-in.  One, how did NC State avoid the play-in game?  But that's the side of me that wasn't sure they should be in the tournament, period, so.  Two, how did the second play-in game move down to the 14-seed line?  I recognize that the tournament committee doesn't like to have to "cater" to BYU, but why punish Iona similarly?  How could you not "fit" them in on any of the 13-seed lines or the 12-seed, where most people would agree they belong?  It isn't tough to argue the 4 teams in the play-in game shouldn't necessarily be there, although I personally would say Cal probably shouldn't be involved.  However, NC State not only avoided the play-in game but got seeded a whole group higher than those in the play-in game.

Lot of Jacked Up Seeds
Which brings me to my biggest beef with the bracket: seeding.  There are a lot of baffling seeding decisions, the most puzzling to me was Colorado as an 11, when they finished 6th in a conference that only placed one other team in the field?  Typically, that's a 13-seed all the way.  If they are an 11, that would theoretically mean that they would have made the tournament even had they lost their conference tourney.  That is just simply not the case.  There are a lot of teams that are higher than they would seem to deserve.  I've already highlighted my complaints about NC State's seed.  UNLV started the season great, but had a rough last month of the season, yet mustered a 6 seed as the 3rd place team in the MWC that lost on their home court in the semifinals of the conference tournament.  Texas probably should have been closer to a play-in type game as well, along with Xavier, but they got 11 and 10 seeds, respectively.  Connecticut played a tough schedule, and they even won a couple of those tough games, but a 9-seed as a reward for that?  I wonder if the Committee Chair being a former UConn AD had anything to do with that seeding?  St. Louis and Alabama were other 9's that may have gotten a little extra love from the Committee.

Teams that are potentially too low: Long Beach State, Florida, St. Mary's, and obviously I feel that Iona/BYU as a 14 is too low.  Now, with that said, every team in the tournament has an opportunity to play and prove if they were overseeded or underseeded.  Win and prove the critics wrong, lose and people like me will say: see?

The Bracket Itself
I don't see a lot of major advantages for the 5-8 seeds.  Any one of them could lose their first game.  Any one of them could go to the Sweet 16.  This bracket, at least to the Sweet 16, is about as wide open as I can recall.  It should be fun to fill this thing out.

As far as potential surprise teams, I have a few on my mind.  Obviously, because I was such an Iona fan, I would say them, but Marquette (and first, potentially BYU) are a huge EARLY obstacle for them, but if they can swing it, I could certainly see them giving Mizzou a run for their money.  I like Colorado's draw against an overachieving UNLV team and then matching up against a very familiar Baylor team.  I like Purdue's draw with St. Mary's and Kansas, both are teams they could beat.  Cal could make some noise as well, but winning three games in 5 days against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams may be too much to ask of them.

Thoughts on Iona
I have watched a couple Iona games this year and was quite impressed with them, hence my hoping that they would make the tournament and be given a chance.  They have a very athletic, but undersized, PF, with enough skill to run the fast break.  He doesn't stretch the defense necessarily with good outside shooting, but he'll be a tough guard for BYU.

I expect BYU to play a lot of zone to keep Iona's guards out of the lane.  Iona can shoot.  I think they are very similar to St. Mary's offensively: they don't get much from their post play, but they get enough; most of their points come from the drive or the drive and kick-out for open outside shots.  BYU didn't fare well against St. Mary's this year and I don't anticipate they will match up well against Iona.  On paper, BYU would seem to be the favorite, but on the court, this BYU team is just too church ball to take on a scrappy, high-scoring Iona team.  Just my initial thoughts, maybe I'll change my tune before tomorrow night.

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