BYU and Gonzaga split the regular season series, with BYU winning by 10 at home in a high-scoring fast-paced affair and Gonzaga grinding the play out at home in an 11-point win. Gonzaga travels well, but so does BYU (well, really, they have fans everywhere so they don't even need to "travel"). I also envision fans of both Saint Mary's and San Francisco will be pulling for BYU, after the Zags have dominated conference play for a decade and have earned the ire of all fans in the league at some point over that stretch. So, slight home-court edge for BYU.
As far as the teams: Gonzaga is a bit less diverse offensively than BYU is when at full-strength. However, BYU isn't at full strength with Hartsock's knee injury and sharp-shooter Stephen Rogers never really recovering from mid-season surgery. Gonzaga shoots the ball with a higher percentage, but BYU scores more points, mostly a result of combining their fast pace with offensive rebounding and sharing the basketball. Gonzaga tightens the screws down in their halfcourt defense a lot better than BYU. They really prefer a nice slow, halfcourt, out-execute you type of game.
San Diego didn't really challenge Hartsock on the defensive end very much. Gonzaga will go right at him. Elias Harris scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the meeting in Spokane without Hartsock, so Harris will look to be aggressive and test Hartsock's knee, and try to force BYU into more zone defense than they would like to play, which opens up their catch-and-shoot guards. Harris can also more aggressively guard Hartsock on the defensive end than USD, as he won't have to fear Hartsock taking him off the dribble because of the large athleticism (and health) advantage Harris has. If Harris neutralizes Hartsock it's game over, unless someone else can step up. One thing is for sure: BYU can't use Zylstra at the 4 for too long on Saturday night: Harris will absolutely eat him up.
After a 12-point performance tonight giving him back-to-back double-figure games, perhaps that man to step up is Brock Zylstra? No. Not a chance. As I highlighted earlier in the week, he has shot 23% from the field, 9% from three, in BYU's losses and didn't score in double figures in a game against any team in the RPI top 100, except for Weber State at home in early December.
Actually, I think the most likely candidate to have a chance at a big night is Anson Winder. Gonzaga had to see how Carlino failed to handle the pressure tonight and try to give him all they can, but they don't really have the guards to pester him for 40 minutes (Marquise Carter COULD but he's such a liability on the offensive end...), so he will likely see some double teams or traps. They will not leave Davies or Hartsock, which leaves Zylstra, Abouo, and Winder as the open guys (and I don't think Abouo's head is right for some reason right now). Winder struggled tonight, going 1-5 from the field. But he's from Vegas and he'll probably feel more comfortable on Saturday. I think perhaps the nerves of playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season were certainly there, and those will be gone the second time around on Saturday night. Usually in these tournament type settings, a guy has a big night one night and doesn't the next, a guy has a poor night shooting and responds with a great night on Day Two. Winder is that X-Factor guy that can give BYU that kind of night. Well, only if BYU is serious about winning.
Gonzaga wisely chose to schedule a meaningless blowout win on Monday night. With the bye and a week between games, it's good for them to get a little bit of a tune-up the week of the tournament. This isn't their first rodeo. Mark Few knows how to best handle his team in this scenario. His team will be prepared and they will be rested. But, on the flip side, they start a few freshmen and bring a few sophomores off the bench. How will those guys respond in their first tournament game? Thus far, the WCC tournament has shown some stellar performances by freshmen and some reasonably lousy ones. If Pangos and Bell come out of the gate swinging, if Dower and Stockton come off the bench and play beyond their years, BYU has their hands full. If one or two, or all, of those guys struggle to find their footing in their first taste of elimination basketball, BYU could jump out early and make it a struggle for the Zags to keep up with their pace and ability to score.
Ultimately, the matchup Gonzaga wants to exploit is Harris-Hartsock. BYU doesn't really have an offense where they can exploit any mismatches except Carlino and the post players. Gonzaga doesn't really have anyone that can guard Abouo, but he's shown such a lack of discipline and a propensity to get in foul trouble, it's tough to COUNT on exploiting his matchup. The one I look to see is Hartsock. Can he guard Harris so BYU can stay in the man-to-man longer against Gonzaga? Can he score on Harris and be a valid scoring option for at least 20 minutes? I like his heart and toughness. But he's clearly playing hurt and, man, Harris dominated the game in Spokane. If Hartsock was 100%, I'd like BYU's chances, but he's not and I don't. BYU's freshmen don't seem to have as much poise as Gonzaga's, and, even with the one-game advantage in terms of tournament experience, that may prove to be as crucial a comparison as Hartsock and Harris: Carlino and Winder vs. Pangos and Bell.
This game certainly could swing the Cougars way, but I just don't think BYU has the horses right now to contend with a resolute Zags squad out to avenge their loss of regular season conference supremacy. 11 years in a row, they were on top of the conference standings. This year they aren't. They'll be out for blood, unfortunately for BYU. Gonzaga 68, BYU 62.
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