Monday, September 22, 2014

Virginia at BYU: Mo's Reaction

I'd like to start by apologizing: I jumped on the bandwagon and my influence over the sports universe was on full display Saturday afternoon as BYU struggled mightily against Virginia.  The offense wasn't as sharp as it had been the first 10 quarters of the season.  The defense looked as bad as it has in about 4 years, probably one of the 5 worst defensive games BYU has had in the Bronco Mendenhall era.  First, the offense.

A lot of BYU fans have been jumping on Taysom for his accuracy issues.  Yes, he did not have 100% accuracy against Virginia, or in the first half against Houston.  There is one weakness Taysom has always had and it has nothing to do with his arm: fear of overthrowing the ball.  For three years now, we have watched Taysom underthrow deep outs and sideline or comeback routes.  It's not that he doesn't have the arm to hit guys 15 yards down the field on the sideline.  Watch him throw in pre-game, or in drills, or watch him chuck the ball 40 or 50 yards up the field: he can get it done with his arm.  But during the games, on those routes, he wants to make sure only his guy can get it, and the throw ends up being one where not even his guy can get it.  Yes, this is a problem.  Or Anae can change up the playbook or play-calling to adjust.  I'd rather take the 2 addition completions a game than get 1 completion and 1 interception.

But let's step back for a minute and look at Taysom as a whole: he is completing 66% of his passes on the season.  There are only 23 QBs with higher percentages than Taysom.  Looking at those 23 players there are three things that stand out to me that apply to most of them: easier schedules so far, lots of screen passes (or other short/safe passes), and phenomenal WRs.  3 of BYU's 4 opponents are in the top 50 in multiple pass defense metrics (and the one that isn't is Virginia).  BYU has thrown maybe 5 or 6 screens this season and only 25% of his completions are to RBs: those numbers would be much higher for a large majority of the 23 players with higher percentages.  None of BYU's WRs are getting drafted: Alabama may have 3, including a top 10 pick.  BYU hasn't played nobodies like most teams to this point and Taysom has to earn his completions by throwing more difficult routes to less-talented receivers.  Yes, he made some bad throws the past two games and missed a couple of open receivers, but every QB does that multiple times every game. He isn't going to complete 80% of his throws.  Turn it down a notch.  He didn't turn the ball over and he threw two TDs while leading the O to score 34 points against a team that gave up less than 30 points to 2 teams expected/projected to be better than BYU this season.

Now, on to the defense.  There are legitimate complaints about what the D did this week.  BYU went from an aggressive attacking defense the first three games to a bend-a-heck-of-a-lot-but-don't-quite break D against Virginia.  In the first half, BYU could not stop the run very effectively.  In any passing situation, it seemed UVa's QB, or back up QB, could literally just throw it up and get a completion or a pass interference.

In retrospect, what we saw was a defense that was completely shell-shocked in the 1st quarter and totally exhausted in the 4th quarter.  BYU gave up 19 points to UVa last season and even that was somewhat of a fluke.  So when UVa ran the opening kickoff back to midfield and scored in 3 plays, I think they were surprised: they had expected to win by just showing up.  They slowed Virginia down on the next drive before UVa converted a bunch of third downs in their last drive of the 1st Q.  In the 2nd quarter, though, the front seven looked much stronger on 1st and 2nd down.  The back 4 looked awful on 3rd down though.  In the 3rd Q, BYU's defense again held their opponent scoreless (3 out of 4 games this season, with Texas the exception who scored a meaningless TD in the 3rd Q), but BYU's O wasn't on the field very long while putting up 14 points (less than 5 minutes time of possession in 3rd Q while outscoring the opponent 14-0).  By the 4th, they were just out of gas and had no choice but to just keep everything in front of them and force long drives.  Then Adam Hine had the nerve to return a kickoff for a TD after the D had just given up a 12-play drive that lasted over 5 minutes, where BYU held them to a FG.  It was bound to happen.

Now, it can't be explained away in those two phrases: shell-shocked and tired.  They could only get pressure when they brought 5 or 6 guys at any point in the game, and even then, that wasn't a guaranteed QB hurry/hit.  Even though they played good coverage in the secondary, for the most part, they couldn't prevent completions.  In the first half, it felt like everyone passively played their assignments in run defense, which led to a lot of 4-6 yard carries.  In the second half, guys attacked their assignments and actually filled the holes instead of standing in them, and it led to a lot more 0-2 yard gains.  The D gave up just 2 scoring drives in the 2nd/3rd quarter combined and both were FGs.  So it wasn't all bad.

Consider what BYU has shown this season: the ability to mold its defense and still have success/win games.  LSU is an attacking, in your face kind of a defense that is usually one of the best in the country.  But they got beat down at home this weekend by a previously unranked opponent because they didn't have the ability to change their defense enough, or in time, to give their O a chance to win.  BYU's D figured it out and slowed Virginia down enough to let Taysom take over in the 3rd Q and for BYU to emerge victorious.

With that said, I do not want to see another game like the Virginia game this season.  It felt like BYU lost b/c they had been so dominated.  Statistically, in a lot of ways, it was the worst game in the Bronco era.  I was physically and mentally exhausted by game's end; I can't imagine how the players must have felt!  But in spite of that, the Cougars did enough to win.  At the end of the day, the W matters.  The way I see it, I don't anticipate another game like this.  BYU has 2 types of opponents the rest of the season: ones that BYU will take too seriously for a repeat performance and ones that don't have the ability to repeat this performance against BYU's D.  The sky isn't falling.  BYU is still 4-0 and has the week off to refocus.  It seems like the perfect time for everyone to step back, get healthy, and correct some issues.

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