BYU at Texas: Mo's Prediction

Far and away, the biggest game of BYU's season is Texas.  Bronco and the players can say "one game at a time" or "the game in front of us is the biggest game" all they want.  BYU fans know better.  Without a win at Texas on September 6th, it almost doesn't matter what the Cougars do the rest of the season.  BYU fans will still tune in, root with all they have, and hang on Taysom's every run.  However, without a ranking, without an outside chance at one of the big bowl games, without wins against their toughest opponents in the toughest environments, without any ranked opponents on the schedule, BYU fans will be the only ones paying much attention to the Cougars after this week if BYU loses.

So, yes, BYU needs to win this game.  If they don't win this one, the others have significantly less meaning.  BYU needs to be nationally relevant in October and November.  This isn't about an audition for the Big 12 (if the Big 12 ever has to expand, BYU will be one the top 3 choices regardless of the outcome of this game), or even launching a potential Taysom Heisman run, it's about getting noticed and recognized by people other than your own fans (and those Utah fans who love nothing more to see BYU fail).  BYU needs to stay on people's radar throughout the season for their on-field performance and that won't happen if they lose to the only top-notch opponent on the schedule.

Texas is still Texas.  I don't expect them to compete for a national championship this year, but I expect them to be very competitive in one of the best conferences in America.  I heard one BYU fan try to play role reversal to determine what we might expect from Texas.  Imagine BYU had to play Wisconsin again this year, a team that controlled much of the game against BYU last season.  Now, kick a half-dozen BYU players from the two-deep off the team in the offseason.  Pretend Taysom Hill and our best offensive lineman got hurt against Connecticut.  Suspend another starter and back-up the week of the game.  How would BYU fans expect the Cougars to perform, even at home?  To that I say: if BYU were Texas I would still have high expectations.

Every single player on Texas' roster was recruited to play at one of the premier college football programs in the country.  They were vetted by some of the greatest college football minds and recruiters to come sport the Burnt Orange and play in front of 100k+ fans in Austin.  They might be inexperienced and playing in a new system, but once upon a time they were MVPs of championship-winning high school teams, teams that sent multiple players to play Division I football.  They were well-coached in high school and have been for 2-3 years in college.  So, no, I expect them to come out guns blazing and playing with a chip on their shoulder, and to have the physical abilities to match the intensity of their play.

Where this might hurt Texas is later in the game.  These young, former back-ups can't play 4 straight quarters, every play.  Their back-ups are now former scout team players, pressed into action because they need to be.  While these players may be athletic, physical, or fast, these are the guys BYU can take advantage of.  They are both young and inexperienced instead of just being inexperienced.  They are playing in their first meaningful football game (last week doesn't count).  They have been hearing from their friends, family, and community that they need to take BYU to the woodshed.  That can cause over-aggression, which isn't always a good thing in football.

In short, to me, the game means everything for BYU's season.  And, while it doesn't mean the same for Texas, I expect Texas to come out ready to play.

Honestly, like the oddsmakers, I have no clue what to expect from this game.  With a new QB, I suspect Texas will try to lean on the running game.  By all accounts, in spite of injuries throughout their careers, Texas has 3 quality RBs.  Will they be able to make plays behind a very inexperienced offensive line?  My heart says BYU will be able to stop the run, if not with the front 7, then by stacking the box with an 8th or maybe even 9th guy.  They will force a young QB to beat them with his head and arm.  But my gut says that Bronco will play bend but don't break defense, which will give the OL confidence, open some creases for the backs, and give Swoops some time to get settled in his first collegiate start.  My gut tells me that Texas will still break several back-breaking big plays to keep the crowd amped and put BYU on their heels.

Looking back at last year's game, Texas didn't lose this game because their offense wasn't performing well.  In fact, they put up more yards and points than any other team that played in Provo last season.  Only Houston and Notre Dame moved the ball better on BYU's D than Texas.  It was the defense that lost the game.  The offense may not be as dynamic, this is true, but the defense is significantly improved.  Add a raucous home crowd itching for revenge and this will be a test.  What if Taysom gets hurt?  What if Anae gets an early lead and goes into uber-conservative mode like he did last time in Austin? Or, worse yet, what if Taysom gets stopped and Anae doesn't know how to get things jump started?  Are we in for one of those 7-6 defensive slugfests/offensive slopfests?

My model gave Texas a TD win.  Even before the injuries and suspensions, I felt the model overrated Texas (of course, I also feel it overrates BYU, so I guess it balances).  Removing the players that were injured/suspended, Texas moves from 7.5-point favorite to 4.5-point underdog.  If the Cougar offense moves the ball half as well as they did in Provo last year, I suspect BYU will take control of the game and win easily, 4 points would be way too little.  If Texas steps their D up a huge notch and BYU struggles to move/score, Texas could blow BYU out of the water with big yardage plays, forced turnovers, and special teams.

Texas is ready for this game, regardless of who suits up and takes the field.  They have all been wanting a chance to prove that last season's game was an anomaly and it was not Texas football.  BYU had better be ready too.  If they come out flat, nervous, or just even-keeled, which they have been known to do in some of their bigger games, it may be over quickly.

Texas, on the backs of a few big plays, will find ways to score on BYU.  Emotions will be high for the Longhorns, guys will make plays, errors will be made by the D if BYU doesn't match the intensity, and Texas will make BYU pay for it with some big plays.  BYU, on the other hand, is the more mature team, they will match Texas' intensity (and long-yardage plays) with sustained drives and by keeping Texas guessing.

I'll trust my model and the Texas defense: Texas 27, BYU 21.  I'd love to be wrong.  I'd also love to say BYU 40, Texas 21, but only a crazy person would predict BYU to beat Texas by 19 on the way to setting every single-game rushing record by a Texas opponent...