WCC Tourney Thoughts

The WCC Tourney is officially underway.  I don't expect the 8/9 winner to give San Francisco a whole lot of trouble tomorrow night.  Both teams are kind of scrappy but just not very good.  The Dons are a "live by the three die by the three" type of team, so I suppose it's possible LMU could take them down.  Portland has no shot though...the winner of San Francisco-LMU/Portland gets Santa Clara on Friday night.

Looking ahead to the other first round game USD-Pepperdine (winner plays BYU): San Diego could potentially be a surprise team in the tourney.  They were very streaky during the season, and March is here: the ultimate rewarder of streaky.  They are a guard-oriented team but have a couple of bigs that are capable of controlling games for (very) brief stretches.  Pepperdine is a lightweight, even for a 7-seed in the WCC Tourney.  Johnny Dee really is one of those guys that can push USD to the Semis or even the Finals single-handedly.  He only has 5 games scoring over 20 points, but I imagine he'll have at least two more of those in the WCC Tourney.

Peering into the Quarters:
I think Santa Clara is good for a win here, almost regardless of who they match up against.  Their biggest problem: they didn't beat ANYBODY in the WCC, or in the non-conference really, excluding one win at St. Louis early in the year.  They went 0-6 against the "Big Three" and were the only team in the WCC to lose to Loyola Marymount.  USF could give them some trouble, particularly b/c 3-point shooting teams always seem to shoot the three better their second game of tournaments.

I am curious to see the USD-BYU matchup.  I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see BYU get shell-shocked early, and, if Davies is in foul trouble (again), it might be tough for them to climb out.  BYU doesn't seem to have a tournament mindset, generally speaking, which is why it has been 11 years since BYU's last tournament championship, in spite of a bunch of regular season titles over that period.  However, Carlino is a little different than BYU's typical PG.  He can play like a Tournament Champion PG...it's just been so long since he's done it, I wouldn't count on it!

Looking Ahead to the Semis:
The Zags and St. Mary's are clearly the class of the league and they await the survivors in the Semis on Saturday.  I think the advantages of the double-bye can be disadvantages.  In March, I think it's a slight advantage to play a game against an inferior opponent before getting tested (which may also accurately describe Gonzaga's Semifinal game more than the Quarterfinal game for Santa Clara).  With Gonzaga, they don't really have anything to play for.  They are in the NCAA tournament as a 1 or 2-seed.  I can't imagine them tanking it in the Final, so if they are going to go down, it would have to be here. St. Mary's won't have any trouble advancing against whomever opposes them on Saturday.  BYU hoops plays against St. Mary's like BYU Football plays against Utah: beneath their "privileges."

My Finals Prediction:
Gonzaga should win if they survive Saturday night.  St. Mary's should win if the Zags get upset.  It is March and I'd love to predict a major upset.  The only two teams that are at all tempting to pick are San Francisco and BYU.  I just don't trust USF to beat Gonzaga for a third win in three days, even with the curse of #1 resting on Gonzaga and the benefit of two back-against-the-wall games for USF.  They'd have to be really on from the outside for at least the second time in the tournament.  BYU's traditonal tournament failure makes it tough to pick them, especially knowing they would have to beat USD first, then need to find anything resembling mental fortitude against St. Mary's, and then trying to figure out how to compete against Gonzaga with WCC refs that treat Olynyk like he's LeBron/Kobe/MJ.  However, one might say BYU underachieved this season, and, with a guard-oriented attack, they are built for tournament success.  Their D is too bad and Delgado and Winder (their two best defenders) can't possibly see the floor enough b/c BYU can't afford to have them on the offensive end of the floor.  BYU just doesn't have enough players that know what to do on both ends of the court!  Winder and Delgado can play D and hit wide open spot-up threes.  Ambrosino is zero D and a very good, but streaky, shooter.  Sharp is all D/hustle and no O (unless he's wide open under the basket).  Austin can only score from one place on the floor and on D he's good for a foul or a charge on almost every possession, meaning he can't ever be counted on for meaningful minutes.

My final answer: Gonzaga...