1. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to me on a prediction. If I predict a double-digit seed to go Sweet Sixteen, pick them to lose first round. Any 1 or 2 that I say won't make Elite Eight, you may want to consider having them win it all. You have a better chance of being right. I mocked my wife for picking Kansas over Memphis in the Championship game a few years back stating, and I quote, "those two teams NEVER make it as far as they are supposed to. You are guaranteed to lose both title game teams the opening weekend." One Mario's Miracle later, she wins the pool, I lose. Badly. Two years ago, it was UConn, she wins, I'm in the bottom half of a pool with 75 people...thankfully for me, she's won back all the money that I've wasted with my entries into pools...
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
If I may interpose one more theory...if you've exhausted all of the "expert" analysis and still can't quite decide who to go with after your sixth iteration of your bracket, pick the more dominating mascot. This has failed me only once and that's when the Green Wave made the tourney. What's going to stand up to a green wave?
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you what can: the Holy Cross Crusaders. After all, Chuck Norris is the Ultimate Crusader. I'd like to see a Green Wave stand up to Chuck Norris...
ReplyDelete