I'd love to have been able to post these past few weeks a bit more, but projects, exams, and election results have been kicking my butt. Luckily, only the latter disappointed me!
So, having eyed BYU in the preseason I am happy to report that Cougar Fans have an exciting basketball team. However, I really believe this is going to be a frustrating season.
For starters, there are only 3 guys that belong in the starting lineup on any team that has designs to compete for a conference title and an NCAA tournament bid, and one of them probably isn't going to start. Haws and Davies are NBA-type talents, in my opinion. Craig Cusick is exactly the kind of calming presence BYU will need as they open games on the road. BYU has 3 "6th man of the year" candidates, but at least two of them will start. Nate Austin, Brock Zylstra, and Matt Carlino (at least the end-of-season Carlino) are come-off-the-bench, provide-a-spark kind of guys. Carlino will start. At least one of the other two will, if not both.
Josh Sharp is that 8th or 9th type of guy that can come in and play a few minutes of hard-nosed defense and frustrate some super-star 3/4. What BYU is missing is that 7th or 8th man ahead of Sharp and after whoever ends up being the ACTUAL 6th man out of the 4 candidates. There are a few candidates there for 7/8 with Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert, and Harward, but I don't put much stock into what I saw against over-matched exhibition teams. And I'm not sure any of the 4 can consistently deliver consistent offensive performances. I am confident their defensive performances will be consistent, just not the right kind of consistency BYU fans would want.
I'll admit I haven't been tracking (and I watched the games with no sound so didn't hear either) so I don't know how long Anson Winder will be out. He's a great starter at the shooting guard. If he's healthy (and Cusick starts), I would really like BYU's starting 5, regardless of who is at the PF. That would also solve the 7th/8th man problem BYU has as Austin, Zylstra, or Carlino would naturally slide into the 7th/8th man. With Winder, I like the depth of BYU a lot better.
I was a little saddened by the loss of Chris Collinsworth. Then when Stephen Rogers went down it was quite disheartening (and I posted such in this space about the depth issues that presents for BYU at 3/4/5 in terms of NCAAs and WCC Titles). Afterwards, to see Anson Winder in a tie those exhibition games was like seeing America re-elect a failed, divisive uber-liberal for president. Decisively.
I still don't upgrade my opinions about this basketball TEAM after seeing them play, though I love what I'm seeing from Davies and Haws. However, there is no consistent back-up to Davies, especially if Austin starts. Carlino still runs around like a squirrel hyped up on crack, so I don't count on him for consistency at the point guard. One of the 4 new guys might step up, but I didn't see any future stars there. Ultimately, what it comes down to is three things: 1) Can Carlino, Cusick, and Zylstra deliver in the big games, while not screwing up in the other games? 2) Can Davies dominant the paint so badly that BYU can handle some poor perimeter defending and inconsistent shooting outside? 3) Can Tyler Haws be THE guy. For 30+ games.
1) Carlino generally played great in big games, no doubt. But it was those mid-level teams that he struggled against. He'd drop 30 in the spotlight. Then have 6 turnovers in the next game. Zylstra is the opposite: he's good for 20 when it doesn't matter and 0-20 when it does. I don't know why Rose doesn't play Cusick more.
2) When Davies woke up against Baylor last season, it was awesome. He played like a beast for most of the rest of the season. He needs to come out of the gates like that if he wants to be WCC POY. And if BYU is going to have time to acclimate to early games against FSU and ND/St. Joe's, Davies is going to have to control the middle.
3) Tyler Haws is a special player. He will be one of the BYU greats. He hasn't missed a beat after being gone for two years. Can his body hold up in late January and February and consistently produce? If so, he can be the kind of guy that is un-coverable for WCC teams. Especially if he can shoot the three at a reasonable volume without hurting his percentage. He's more of a catch and shoot kind of guy from deep, but good is good. I think if BYU is going to do something noteworthy this season, he will have to carry them through a couple of contests.
BYU is probably about 12-3 in non-conference play, maybe 11-4. Conference play obviously will depend on if BYU has injuries or finds production out of the newer players, however, I'll go ahead and go out on a limb and say 12-4. At 24-7, they'll be 3rd seed in the conference tourney and win until they match up with St. Mary's or Gonzaga (my money's on SMC winning WCC again). At 25-8, they are a bubble team. The difference of getting in will probably depend on how strong the middle third of the WCC ends up being.
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