Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Signing Day Notes

Supposedly this is a big day because you find out where the best players are going, and who got the best recruiting classes. Yada, yada, yada. Here are a few thoughts on the recruiting hype. I will break down a few teams' signees later (maybe only BYU's), but for now:

First: the best recruits don't always make the best players. Sometimes a kid just develops earlier than others but, after 2 or 3 years of college, others catch up. Also, a lot of blue-chippers are treated like gods in high school, in recruiting, and sometimes early in their collegiate careers. These false idols often don't have the same work ethic or brain capacity as other recruits and may not improve as much as their lower-rated cohorts.


Second: the star system is biased. If a kid is recruited by better schools (or more schools), it is assumed that he will be a better player and he receives a higher star rating. If a kid "commits" as a sophomore to one school, he is recruited by fewer schools, or none at all, and receives a lower star rating.


Third: academics or off-the-field problems can weed out the top of a lot of recruiting classes. Again, being treated as idols they don't always work hard in the classroom, have the best attitudes, or know how to avoid stupid situations. Some of that just comes with being an 18-year old boy, some of that comes from being told you are a 4 or 5 star recruit.


Fourth: the number of recruits is often as important as the quality of them. Sometimes a warm body is better than no-body. A team can develop depth if they have people to work with, but you can't develop a back-up if you don't have enough players at the position. A two-star recruit back-up is usually better than a walk-on (aka, former ZERO star guy).


Fifth: the best classes don't always make for the best teams. For all of the reasons stated above, and adding the coaching element, the teams that get the best recruits aren't always the best teams. However, going the other way, the one common thing among the best teams are getting great recruits. A good recruiting class doesn't guarantee success, but it doesn't hurt.

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