MWC Bubble Watch

Utah (10-2, 19-7):
Losses-SW Baptist, @Idaho State, California, @Oklahoma, @Utah State, @San Diego State, @UNLV
Good wins-Gonzaga, LSU, BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State
Down the stretch-UNLV, @BYU, @New Mexico
Thoughts-they played a great out of conference schedule and fared pretty well against top-notch competition. The early season losses to SW Baptist and at Idaho State are inexplicable, but they seem to have righted the ship. They have yet to notch a win against a quality opponent on the road.
They get in the Big Dance if...they win 3 more games, or don't lose 4-5 more games.
They get left out of the Big Dance if...they get knocked out of the first round of the MWC Tourney or if they drop their final 4 regular season games.

BYU (8-3, 20-5):
Losses-vs. Arizona State, Wake Forest, @New Mexico, UNLV, @Utah
Good wins-vs. Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico
Down the stretch-@UNLV, @SDSU, Utah
Thoughts-they are no longer invincible at home, which gives Utah a good chance to come in and steal a game. They have played well of late, but the competition hasn't been as good as it was when they were struggling. They haven't notched any good wins outside of the state of Utah. They fell short in 3 potential statement games: ASU, Wake, and UNLV, which has been a trend that, unfortunately, extends into the NCAA Tournament.
They get in the Big Dance if...they win at least 1 of their big three remaining, and win at least one game in the MWC Tourney.
They get left out of the Big Dance if...New Mexico wins the conference tourney or they lose @UNLV, @SDSU, and home against Utah.

SDSU (8-3, 18-6):
Losses-Arizona State, @Arizona, vs. St. Mary's, @Wyoming, @BYU, @Utah
Good wins-Utah, New Mexico, @UNLV
Down the stretch-@New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
Thoughts-they have nothing positive in the non-conference schedule, losing all three tough games out-of-conference. The win @UNLV was important, especially if they can hold serve at home against BYU and UNLV: that'd put them at 3-1 against conference opponents who have played in the NCAA Tournament each of the last 2 years. Their schedule lines up to give them a legitimate shot at winning the regular season MWC championship.
They get in the Big Dance if...they win the regular season championship or finish second while adding two wins in the conference tournament.
They get left out of the Big Dance if...they finish 3rd or lower in the conference or if they finish 2nd and don't make it to the MWC Championship game.

New Mexico (7-4, 16-10):
Losses-yes, frequently, at home, on the road, or on a neutral court, doesn't matter if it's a quality or pitiful opponent
Good wins-BYU, UNLV
Down the stretch-SDSU, Utah
Thoughts-they have too many losses to be a tournament team. Their only big wins have come at home, in conference. I am surprised at how well they have played this year, but, at the same time, I'm shocked at some of their losses. Even if they win out down the stretch (this would, at worst, give them a share of the conference championship), they still probably can't make a case for an at-large bid. I think the game @Wyoming will be too much to handle for the Lobos.
They get in the Big Dance if...they win the conference tournament. Period.
They get left out of the Big Dance if...they don't win the conference tournament.

UNLV (7-5, 19-7):
Losses-California, Cincinnati, @TCU, @CSU, SDSU, @New Mexico, @Wyoming
Good wins-Arizona, @Louisville, New Mexico, BYU
Down the stretch-BYU, @Utah, @SDSU
Thoughts-they sure can get up for the big games on the road (@Louisville, @BYU), but can't beat some bottom-of-the-packers in the Mountain West away from the Thomas & Mack (TCU, CSU, Wyoming). Because the tournament is in Vegas on their home court, not winning it would be held against them more so than other MWC teams.
They get in the Big Dance if...they don't lose any more games to non-top-50 RPI teams and win 2 games against top-50 teams. Let it be said, I think they will win the conference tournament and get in that way...
They get left out of the Big Dance if...they lose early in the conference tournament or drop two more regular season games.

I'll put my predictions up for final standings, etc. Friday night or Saturday morning prior to the start of any MWC games.