After 2013: Future Expansion?

I know it's been discussed a lot in a lot of different circles, but I thought I'd summarize the opinions out there as well as provide my own insight.  Question: will there be more expansion?  Let's look at the major conferences.  

[I don't really consider shuffling in the non-BCS leagues to really be expansion, to me that is more about consolidation. The WAC folded because there was one too many conferences. 10 is the right number. There may be jockeying for position, but ultimately, MWC, American, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt is the pecking order there.]

The SEC is at 14 teams.  Realistically speaking, no team would ever leave the SEC.  Their only expansion options would be ACC, from which no team will leave based on their loss of media rights and stiff exit penalty, the Big Ten, where the only real targets are unlikely to leave (Ohio State and Michigan), and the Big 12.  If they could get Texas and Oklahoma, they would.  Short of that, it is difficult to see any good expansion options for the SEC.

The ACC is at 14 teams.  They got what they could out of the Big East.  They made it virtually impossible for any team to leave the conference.  I think they will stick at 14, because there is nowhere for them to expand as the last of the BCS conferences in terms of pecking order.

The Big Ten moves to 14 teams next season.  Beyond that, there is nothing less to take from the former Big East and the SEC and ACC are off limits.  Again, that leaves the Big 12 as the only realistic possiblity.

The Pac 12 is at 12, stuck two members behind the other three major expanders.  However, geographically and philosophically, there are few options short of Texas available to them.  Unless the city/market of Boise grows astronomically and the institution gets a major move toward liberal elitism, Boise State is out.

The Big 12 seems to be the key to any future expansion.  It seems other conferences can only grow by stealing teams from the Big 12.  The Big 12 cannot poach from any other major conference.  They are basically left looking at all the ugly girls at the dance and deciding if there are any two that got overlooked by the others.  The answer for them is probably not.

For all intents and purposes, BYU, Louisville, and Cincinnati are BCS conference teams.  Based on fan base, money, facilities, wins, they are equal to many and better than quite a few that belong to BCS conferences.  However, it takes two to tango.  The Big 12 has to feel like two of these three teams are worth getting.  BYU has long been in big fish in a little pond and it is unknown how they would respond being thrown into a big pond.  Louisville and Cincy were relatively recent additions to the Big East, so none are 100% BCS, tried and true.

My guess is IF there were to be any future expansion, it would be the Big 12 adding BYU and Louisville.  However, I don't know that the Big 12 will do this unless absolutely forced to.  They have a very good, very competitive league in football and basketball.  They generate plenty of money per team.  I don't see the reasoning behind expansion for them in the near-future.  In 3-4 years, a lot can change as Louisville reaps the benefits of multi-sport success.  BYU is adding to its coffers as well.  They could both become unequivocally "BCS" (whatever that means these days).