Jimmer and The Draft

I have had a lot of people ask me where I think Jimmer is going in the NBA Draft.  Honestly, I have no idea where he will end up being drafted because so many things can happen.  I know where he could get drafted and I know where I would prefer that he go.  The main players are the Kings at #7, the Bucks at #10, the Jazz at #12, the Suns at #13, the Pacers at #15, and the Knicks #17.  Jimmer worked out for all of those teams except Milwaukee at #10.

The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7.  Done deal.  No one will trade up to get him higher than that.  At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender.  He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick.  But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation.  The Kings are not a good basketball team.  He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season.  And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame.  He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball.  I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).

The Bucks
I don't see this happening.  The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.

The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him."  I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense.  There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12.  If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG.  I personally think they should take Knight.  Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops.  Guaranteed.  Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY.  They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.

The Suns
Steve Nash Jr?  Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already.  Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball.  Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that.  Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix.  Especially in the long-term.  In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps.  He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.

The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer.  First, they made the playoffs last year.  Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation.  Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane.  I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term.  If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!

The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick.  The system is perfect for him.  They run up and down the floor.  Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff.  I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it.  But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities.  It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball.  But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs.  While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer.  The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.

Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7.  Nor will the Jazz at #12.  So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13.  For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have).  I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career.  The others are iffy.  It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL.  They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did.  Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver.  Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was.  Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing).  Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart.  Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!

Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12.  I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys.  But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13.  Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick.  Score some points and make the playoffs.  It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York!  Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight.  Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!