So, we don't know much about transfers, incoming freshmen, and, in some cases, who will even start at QB for a lot of MWC teams. But knowing what I know about these programs, I'm going to make a few statements and predictions about the MWC's 2009 football season.
1. The main hope for a BCS bid rests with TCU. They will be the class of this league this season. It is definitely not a 3-horse race as most "experts" predict, though it might be a two-horse race (if BYU can survive a final stretch at Wyoming, at New Mexico, home against Air Force, and the Holy War). Even at 11-1, TCU would have a compelling argument to get into the BCS. They have two road games at ACC opponents. A split there and an undefeated run through the conference would probably be enough to warrant a bid, possibly even over a 13-0 Boise State team, or wins at Virginia and Clemson would allow for a loss at BYU. The two toughest games on the schedule are probably going to be at Clemson and at BYU. Keep in mind they will most likely play a total of 8 bowl qualifiers throughout the season.
2. Utah will be more hurt by loss of coaches than by loss of personnel. They will have size on the lines and speed on the perimeter, as usual. The defense will be solid, as usual. The offense will be sporadic, as usual. The main difference will be the coaching staff (and the loss of Louie Sakoda): 3 coaches are in their first year at the University of Utah, and they lost 4 coaches, including the offensive and defensive coordinators. Ludwig took the same position at California, after a few weeks at Kansas State. Anderson took the head job at Utah State (which is a sweet deal: he is walking into a talented team, within 2 years they will be bowling), where he is playing at Utah the first week of the season. Utah has a much tougher schedule this year, and a less-talented team. You do the math. I think 8-4 would be considered a successful year for them.
3. Colorado State and Air Force will create a lot of headaches for the "big three" this year. Many people think UNLV might sneak into the top 5 this year, but the schedule isn't very favorable to them, particularly early on in the season. After hosting Oregon State and Hawaii, they travel to Wyoming and rival Nevada before returning home to host BYU and Utah. That will be a very physical stretch for the finesse-minded Rebels. The biggest problem with their schedule is their bye doesn't come until after the 11th game of the season. On similar scheduling notes: Air Force has no bye during the season, Colorado State's bye comes after game 10, while TCU has a bye the 1st week before playing 12 straight games.
4. The 3 new coaches are going to struggle in their first year. The schedules are pretty brutal. The talent level is fairly low. They aren't coming off of good seasons and they aren't bringing in good recruiting classes. They aren't exactly great football schools either. Good luck.
5. BYU fans hoping for a BCS game, buckle up. I wouldn't be disappointed with a 9-3 season. I'd be very happy with 10-2. At 11-1, I wouldn't believe my eyes. And 12-0 puts you in the national championship game. Again, 9-3 would not be a disappointing season. Oklahoma is a National Championship contender, Florida State will compete for the ACC crown, and TCU and Utah are no gimmes either. Air Force and Colorado State will be tough as well.
Finally, my predicted order of finish:
1. TCU
2. BYU
3. Air Force
4. Utah
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. New Mexico
8. Wyoming
9. San Diego State
Glad to see your back. I was missing Mo Knows Sports. I have to agree with your predictions. And it is nice to see some informed predictions instead of ones based on completely unrealated things such as confrence affiliation or performance three years ago. Also it will be nice to watch Utah where it cannot be saved by King Louis.
ReplyDeleteI hope that TCU and BYU can win their big games. What would the BCS do if two MWC teams are 11-1 and ranked in the top 10 (or even top 8), especially if Boise State is undefeated?
ReplyDeleteFor destroy-the-BCS-now fans, the best (and actually somewhat possible) scenario to hope for is: BYU is 11-1, losing only to #1 (and playing in the NC game) Oklahoma and beating ACC champion Florida State; TCU is 11-1, losing only to BYU on the road beating Clemson and Virginia who finish in the top 3 in the ACC; Boise State is 13-0, with wins over Pac 10 runner-up Oregon and C-USA champ Tulsa who is 12-1. How could the BCS possibly justify not taking 2 of those 3 teams?
ReplyDeleteComments from my dad:
ReplyDeleteI agree that TCU is the favorite, by far. No way we beat them this year. I think you are about right on Utah's finish. They got all the breaks in games last year; so will have to pay for that sometime. I don't see us doing any better than 8-4 though and 7-5 is a real possibility. And the alums will be after Bronco. His Cougar Club signing day presentation was strictly a defense of his teams and record. We will always be good, but I can't see us making the BCS any time.
What about SDSU - it seems like they always have guys getting drafted in the first couple rounds of the draft. When, if ever, do you think the new coach and D-coordinator will start to make a difference?
ReplyDeleteInteresting thoughts about Utah State - isn't it interesting how in college if a guy wins his first year, everyone forgets that he's using the other coach's recruits!
What is up with these BYU fans accepting defeat????? Granted, I am Sooner... so you are right that OU will win.... but if the fans don't believe, who will? :)
ReplyDeleteI think SDSU's biggest problem isn't talent, it has been coaching and commitment from the school and its fans. There are too many other things to do in San Diego, and the stadium isn't right on campus either. It lacks the college atmosphere they need to succeed. However, the right coach, with the right philosophy, which philosophy matches the types of recruits he can get at SDSU, can win at SDSU. Rocky Long is the right D-Coordinator for them, the 3-3-5 suits SDSU. I'll admit I don't know a whole lot about Hoke's offensive mindset, but if he isn't a wide-open spread attack guy, his offense will sputter. SDSU can't recruit a lot of big, strong, tough linemen, but they always have a lot of speed on the perimeter. They just need a system that suits that. Chuck Long was too Big 10, that is why they didn't succeed under him, despite advancements in the talent he recruited.
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