SDSU-BYU, Round III Preview

The First Two Matchups
The first two matchups, BYU just needed to shoot well to win.  With Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth to keep the rebounding from getting completely out of control, and with the Aztecs being such a 'meh' shooting team, it just took some scoring to win the game.  Jimmer shot really well in the first game.  The team shot really well in the second game.  Defensively, BYU did what it needed to do.  James Anderson blocked some shots in the first game (5) and Noah Hartsock did the same in game two (4 blocks).  Jackson Emery held D.J. Gay to 8 points in the two games combined.  Kawhi Leonard got his, but nobody else did, and that was the difference.

What BYU Needs
This is a matchup where James Anderson and Stephen Rogers can actually contribute.  For some completely baffling reason, Malcolm Thomas struggles with Anderson's length.  With Billy White's tendency to float around on defense, it could leave the Cougar 4-men open on the perimeter.  While that isn't Collinsworth's strength, Rogers can certainly make the Aztecs pay from the outside (and Collinsworth could do by getting dribble penetration and dishing once the defense collapses on him).  And, of course, if Jimmer can score 52 again, what does any of that other stuff really matter?  No way SDSU could score enough points to win a game where Jimmer scores 52.

Three Times
I do not believe that BYU is a vastly superior team to SDSU.  Even if they were, it is very difficult to beat a team three times.  Just look at all of the upsets happening in conference tournaments around the nation if you don't believe me.  On the other hand, however, I have become less and less impressed with the Aztecs, even as their win total rises.  They don't really do anything well on the offensive end, other than crash the boards.  They don't really shoot well.  They don't really get a lot of dribble penetration.  They don't have any dominant scorers in the post.  They don't play much team offense.  They really just rely on exploiting when opponents get out of position and then on Kawhi Leonard hitting his jump shots inside of 12 feet.

Yes, D.J. Gay can put up points and James Rahon can shoot threes.  But Gay only has 4 games this season with 20 points or more, and he has yet to score in double figures against BYU.  And Rahon can only get shots off of other people and cannot create anything for himself (not to mention he is a defensive liability).  Honestly, I am amazed that they keep finding ways to win.  But they do keep winning, so maybe I am selling them short.  I certainly won't be picking them for a deep NCAA Tournament run: they resemble the Big East teams too much, and I think that is a very bad thing when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  If BYU can zone them and win twice, imagine what Louisville, Syracuse, or others with athletic, high-flying guys can do.

Prediction
I think the loss of Davies makes this one of those toss-up games, otherwise I really believe BYU would take it to SDSU.  It will all depend on BYU's ability to keep SDSU off of the boards, more so than I thought it would either of the first two games.  I anticipate this being a lower scoring game.  Championship games almost always are.  Familiarity and fatigue are too prevalent for great shooting performances, although Rahon and Rogers both have seen limited minutes the past two days and should be fresh and capable.  Though fatigue can work both ways: defenses may not be as good so it makes for more open shots, tired turnovers can lead to more fast break opportunities, and sheer adrenaline can make for explosive first half performances.

In the end, I think this is the game where the loss of Davies PHYSICALLY hurts BYU too much to win.  BYU has got over being MENTALLY hurt (the loss to New Mexico last week), and now it's about matchups.  If BYU can get even 5 good minutes out of Anderson and 10 good minutes out of Rogers, they could win.  But I think that's putting a lot on guys that have never performed on this big of a state before, regardless of how good they are (or in Anderson's case...).  SDSU should be a bit more tired, as the game with UNLV was more physical, stressful, and full-court (and finished 3 hours later) than was BYU's against New Mexico.  BYU's zone could actually benefit the more tired Aztecs.  I believe the first one to 65 wins this game.  I hate to doubt The Jimmer and the Cougars, but it would be tough for them to play that well two nights in a row against two teams that consider BYU their primary rival.  "The BYU Factor" ends BYU's run: SDSU goes off (relatively speaking): Aztecs 70, BYU 65.