The Road of 1s and 2s

At one point yesterday, I was preparing a comparison of the 4 teams vying for the final two 1-seeds, because that seemed a bit important.  Then Texas lost.  And then there were 3.  Really, it's a bit of a theoretical exercise: BYU has to beat New Mexico on Wednesday, CSU in the semifinals of the MWC Tourney, and then either UNLV on their home floor or top-10 SDSU for the third time in three tries.  It would be a difficult road, despite how easy Doug Gottlieb may think it is.  On one other side note: the RPI that the Selection Committee will use for determining seeds and at-large bids was finalized yesterday: BYU sat at #1.
Regular Season
Whether BYU wins out or not, the comparison really comes down to Duke and BYU.  Texas is out.  Pitt is most likely in.  So Duke and BYU: not where they are right now, because BYU clearly has the edge, but where they could be in two weeks.  BYU has 1 more regular season top-100 RPI game.  Duke has a chance to play 2, Clemson at home and at North Carolina, a top-25 RPI team.  Duke catches up, but I believe they still trail.  BYU would still own 3 top-50 road wins.  At UNC would be Duke's 1st.  In addition, BYU will have 15 non-home wins in 17 games.  Duke would have 12 in 15 tries.

Conference Tournament
BYU will play a team in the 200's in RPI in their first round game.  Then they will play a top-100 RPI team in the Semifinals (top-50 if it's CSU), and a top 30-RPI team in the Final (top 5 if it is SDSU).  Duke, in their conference tournament, will play a top-100 RPI opponent their first game, followed by two NCAA Tournament teams, barring upsets.  If both teams win out, Duke will pass BYU for the 4th 1-seed.  If Duke loses even once, BYU should take a 1-seed.  If BYU loses even once, then reading this article was a waste of your time!

Advantage to 1 or 2?
Last season, 2-seeds actually had an easier road to the Elite Eight (where 1-seeds would meet 2-seeds) than 1-seeds.  Three 10-seeds upset 7-seeds in the first round (BYU was the lone 7 to get it done) and only one 3-seed advanced to the Sweet 16.  One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Round of 32.  One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Sweet 16.  1-seeds played one 4, two 5s, and a 12 in the Sweet 16.  Advantage 2-seeds in 2010.

In 2009 and 2008, however, all of the 3-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, so 2-seeds had a tough road.  In 2007, all 7-seeds won their first round games as well.  In the past 5 years, 2-seeds have faced (or would have faced if they didn't get eliminated early) only two 11-seeds, and no 14-seeds, in the Sweet 16.  1-seeds have played four 12-seeds and one 13-seed.

Numerically speaking, 70% of 2-seeds opponents in the Sweet 16 were 3-seeds, with only 10% of 11- and 14-seeds advancing that far.  Compared to 35% of 1-seeds opponents being 4-seeds, 40% being 5-seeds, and 25% being 12- or 13-seeds.  The road to being Elite is certainly easier being a 1-seed.  That is one reason 1-seeds have a higher statistical chance of advancing farther in the NCAA Tournament than 2-seeds.  The other reason is that 1-seeds are better than 2-seeds...for BYU, better a 1-seed than a 2, but in the grand scheme: by the second round you play a good opponent, and in the Sweet 16 you play a great team, period.  You just have to beat the teams that are sitting on the other bench.