Sorry for a bit of a prolonged absence, I've spent a lot of the past few nights finalizing details for my trip to New Orleans. Of course, it all comes down to flying standby tomorrow and getting on the necessary flights, so keep your fingers crossed for me! I do have a ticket to the game, just hope I can use it!
How Sweet It Is
No player from either of these teams has played in a Sweet 16 game. For Florida, this is the 4th NCAA Tournament game for the majority of their players (Vernon Macklin has played in 7 after transferring from Georgetown, where he lost to the Stephen Curry-led Davidson team...). For Jimmer Fredette this is game 7, for Jackson Emery, Noah Hartsock, and Charles Abouo, this is game 6 (while James Anderson has dressed for 6 games). Logan Magnusson will be in his 5th game. So while no one on either of these teams has had the experience of playing in the second weekend, there is a slight experience edge to BYU. For BYU, as is well documented, this is the first taste of the Sweet 16 since 1981. Florida has recently won national championships under Billy Donovan, but not with any of these players.
What to Expect from the Gators
I've seen only 4 or 5 Florida games this year, but all of them were against NCAA Tournament teams. My initial impression is that they are not a 40-minute type of basketball team. They have their ups and downs within a game. For a shooting team like BYU, that is a great matchup for them: even if the Cougars get off to a cold start, with Florida's inconsistency in scoring the ball, they will not necessarily be out of the game. The bigger Gators are prone to foul trouble, though without inside scoring threats for BYU, that may not be an issue, unless Jimmer, Abouo, and Collinsworth are able to penetrate and get to the rim and draw contact. But they have more quality size and depth on the frontline than BYU, so it may not matter unless 2 of the 3 main guys get in foul trouble. Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus are both seniors, so they may do better at staying out of foul trouble than the freshman Patric Young.
Chandler Parsons is a solid player. He's the third-leading scorer, leading rebounder, and leading assist-man for the Florida Gators. In last year's game he grabbed a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds, plus he had 6 assists, but he also had 5 turnovers and shot pretty poorly.
Erving Walker is a great point guard, and he will undoubtedly remember the job that Jackson Emery did on him in last season's game. He is quick, can shoot from the outside, and makes decisions once he gets into the paint. With BYU playing more zone this year, keeping him out of the lane will be crucial to BYU's success. Last season he was 4-16 shooting (including 3/13 from 3-point range) and had 7 turnovers. BYU made him an outside shooter, and when he drove, they took it away from him.
Kenny Boynton is definitely a wild card. He had about the same kind of season offensively as he had last season. He seemed to be an improved defender in the games I watched (and that is using the solid job he did on Jimmer during regulation as a baseline). But he is coming off the ankle sprain, so is he going to be able to "hold" Fredette to 20-something points in 40 minutes AND score over 20 points himself? If he can do either, Florida should be happy with that, given the injury.
If Boynton isn't himself or if he reinjures his foot, Florida has the same depth issues as BYU: 3 big men and 4 guards. Florida's frontline goes 6'10" 245 (Macklin), 6'9" 245 (Young), and 6'8" 220 (Tyus). Logan Magnusson and James Anderson may not be able to get the job done, one being dramatically shorter and the other amazingly unathletic. With that said, those two guys have played BIG in several games this season, against foes that were bigger, better, faster, and more coordinated than them.
Mo's Keys to the Game
Florida
1) Limit the roles of the role players. Keep Jackson, Noah, and Rogers from getting open threes, and keep Collinsworth and Abouo from getting in the lane. If Jimmer scores 52, but everybody else combines for 15, the Gators would have to feel good about their chances.
2) Aggressively attack the BYU zone. Walker needs to penetrate and Macklin needs touches in the paint. Force BYU to double team or get them in foul trouble.
3) Hang on to the ball. If BYU forces turnovers and gets out in transition, the game will get a lot easier for the Cougars.
BYU
1) Hit open shots. Somebody is going to have open shots, whether it's Jimmer, or whichever player is left open when Jimmer gets doubled, they MUST hit.
2) Defend the paint. Florida isn't the greatest 3-point shooting team. They score on post feeds, dribble penetration, and post feeds off of dribble penetration.
3) Rebound as a team. BYU is going to lose the battle of the boards, but they cannot get demolished. They must secure a lot of defensive rebounds (and run off of it where possible). They need a half-dozen offensive rebounds. If 4 players can get 5 or more rebounds, they should be OK. This formula has worked against other teams that outmatched them on the interior (Gonzaga, SDSU, and New Mexico)
Mo's Prediction
In a high-scoring affair, I like BYU. In a low-scoring affair, I like Florida. The mental aspect of the game is going to be huge. Last season, BYU didn't have the confidence that they could win the game. This year, they will. But, on the flip side, BYU sounded really happy just to get to the Sweet 16, as if that was their goal. Is 5 days enough time to refocus and set the goal higher? Florida will want revenge for last season's loss. But will Florida have the confidence that they can stop Jimmer, especially if Boynton isn't 100% or if Jimmer gets out to a hot start (like he did against New Mexico in the MWC Tourney)? How will a trip to the Bayou impact Florida? BYU players will sit in their rooms and read the Book of Mormon. Florida players, well, they may have other plans. I do give a slight mental edge to Florida right now, but reserve the right to see how the teams warm up...
Vegas has this game pegged as a 76-73 win for Florida. Mo says, 81-72, BYU. Every time I expected BYU to choke so far this season, they didn't. I fully expect Florida to win this game, so why not the Cougars? Let the Jimmer Fredette-About-It Train ride on for at least one more game.
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