2011 MWC Tourney Predictions: First Round

Play-In Game
Wyoming over TCU, in the ultimate "who cares" game.

BYU vs. Play-In Winner
BYU may get a little scare, but that's a long way from a first-round exit.  BYU wins, perhaps closer than it should be, but the game will never really be in doubt.  Jimmer scores whatever he needs to in order to establish that BYU will not be an easy out.

CSU-New Mexico
I think one thing people vastly overemphasize heading into conference tournaments is who came in on what kind of roll.  CSU came limping into the tournament dropping 4 out of 5 games to end the season.  New Mexico came in with guns blazing, having won 3 in a row including a rare win at the Marriott Center.  That doesn't matter.  Both teams are in desperation mode.  Both team's only chance at an NCAA tournament bid is to win the MWC Tourney.  Which team is hungrier?  Which team can play within itself with so much on the line?  I think ultimately New Mexico wins this game because 1) they have more shooters, 2) they have a battle-tested PG who has come through in the clutch before, and 3) they smell the chance to play BYU one more time.  It will have nothing to do with being a hotter team, and everything to do with being a more tournament-ready team.

SDSU-Utah
SDSU couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent, except for maybe Wyoming.  Their complete domination over the Utes in San Diego was very telling of the direction of the two programs.  Flashback two years ago: Utah knocks off SDSU in the Tournament Final.  Since then, it has been totally opposite directions.  Utah goes to the NCAA Tournament and gets thumped in the first round as a 5-seed.  SDSU went to the NIT, where they advanced to the Final Four in Madison Square Garden.  The next season, SDSU goes to the NCAA Tournament after winning the MWC Tournament and comes within a basket of upsetting Tennessee.  Utah gets blown out of the Conference Tournament to finish the season with a losing record.  This year, Coach Fisher gets Co-Coach of the Year in the MWC as his Aztecs share a conference title and are in line to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Boylen is on a very hot seat as his team will finish the season with a losing record again.  What a difference two years makes.  With all of that build-up, Utah still has some very talented, albeit inexperienced, players, they just have a terrible coach.  SDSU has more talented players, more experienced players, and a much better coach.  SDSU may get a little scare of their own, but it won't last long.  They do their job to set up a Semifinal showdown with UNLV.

Air Force-UNLV
If you are going to knock UNLV out, it's better to do it early.  Their fans may show up on Friday if the opponent is good, but usually they wait to turn out in droves for the Championship Game on Saturday.  Thursday is the best chance to get a somewhat neutral crowd.  UNLV and Air Force played the worst game I have ever followed on Gametracker earlier this year at the Thomas & Mack.  UNLV, smelling blood in the water, will play a much better game and advance to play SDSU.

Looking Ahead
I hate to pick chalk (besides 5th-seeded New Mexico "upsetting" a team that they are actually better than), but the conference is so top-heavy that it's tough to imagine an upset in the Quarterfinals.  If I had to pick a team with the best chance at an upset, I'd say Air Force over UNLV.  UNLV is riding high right now and may very easily overlook the Falcons with SDSU up next.

If my predictions are right, my early thoughts are to take a BYU-UNLV Final.  No way BYU loses for a third time to New Mexico, and the same thing with UNLV against SDSU, especially not on a Friday night in front of a packed and very partisan Rebel crowd.  UNLV remembers that it was SDSU that knocked them out of the tournament last year!  Besides, Tre'Von has a bone to pick with Jimmer, because apparently the first two beatings weren't enough to convince Mr. Willis that the Jimmer was more than just supposedly the best player in the MWC.  He is, in very deed, the best player.  And it was unanimous.

Plus, really, how could the final MWC-As-We-Know-It Tournament NOT have another BYU-UNLV Final?  They have produced some of the most dramatic moments and games in the history of the MWC tournament.  Utah-SDSU had an eventful title game decided on the last possession two years ago, but in front of a half-full arena with only 102 combined points scored, it's tough to call that electric.  It's got to be BYU-UNLV, one last time.  Who is with me?