Quick, Initial Thoughts on BYU's Draw

The BYU Screw Job: Not This Year
Every year, BYU fans have a quasi-legitimate gripe about their seeding, matchups, locations, etc.  Not so this season (Utah State got the BYU screw job instead, though they earned it by intentionally playing an easy schedule).  The Jimmer factor must have played huge, if it overshadowed the loss of Brandon Davies and kept BYU on the 3-line.  The best part about BYU's set-up is that they will not likely see a frontline that they could not compete with until the Regional Finals (Elite Eight).  So the hating that usually takes place for BYU was handed to Utah State.  Still, to seed them BELOW the play-in teams is a bit of a slap in the face for a team that got a better seed last year with a worse record and only slightly better schedule.

First Round
Wofford is a dangerous 14, in that they made the NCAA tournament last season, where they scared the bejeebers out of Wisconsin fans in the first round before falling 53-49.  But BYU should have no trouble scoring and rebounding against them, which were the two big issues in their most recent losses.

Round of 32
Should BYU dispose of the Wofford Boston Terriers, they would await the winner of the 6/11 game, which is St. John's against Gonzaga.  BYU should not be intimidated by either one.  St. John's overachieved this year.  They were really tough at home, but didn't have to play anybody as tough as BYU away from home that they actually beat.  They also haven't played at altitude this season.  Gonzaga came on late, winning 9 in a row to close the season out.  They are BYU's toughest threat as far as rebounding is concerned, which is the Cougar's biggest weakness right now.  BYU should not be intimidated by a future conference opponent, particularly one that had a worse record in an easier league than BYU did this season.

Potential Sweet 16 Opponents
Should BYU advance to the Sweet 16, they would probably get either Florida or Michigan State, though I suppose UCLA is also a potential opponent.  Michigan State is a team built for tournament runs, so they could be dangerous: not sure BYU would have an answer for Draymond Green, he's too big for Abouo/Collinsworth, and too athletic for Hartsock.  They have a lot of big bodies.  UCLA is still a year away, in my opinion.  On a truly neutral floor, BYU would probably have beaten them earlier this season.  Florida is the same team that BYU beat last year in the tournament, like literally the same players.  If it is to be believed that the current BYU team is better than last year's (which by seeding they would appear to be), then it is certainly a winnable game, not one that I look at and say BYU couldn't win.  I fully expect, with the pod coming out of Tampa, that Florida's homecourt advantage will push them into the Sweet 16.

Elite Eight
If, and we are getting into several if's by this point, BYU should advance to the Elite Eight, Pitt would certainly be a tough opponent, with their size and athleticism.  I think they are a bit over-hyped as a 1-seed personally, not that they are not a very tough team, but they got the 3rd #1 seed without playing a single non-conference road game and losing 3 of their last 6 games.  They are first Big East Champion in my memory to have an RPI of 10 or higher.  They also got bounced in their first Big East Tournament game, by a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament (Connecticut), which would theoretically be a team as tough as BYU.  Theoretically.

Kansas State and Wisconsin are the other two major possibilities in the Elite Eight.  They are certainly nothing to be extremely afraid of for BYU.  This year's K-State isn't as good as last season's that knocked BYU out.  Wisconsin was a dominant home-court team (16-0 at home), but didn't even play .500 away from the Kohl's Center (7-8).  Honestly, I guess Pitt advances by default, unless Pullen puts the K-State team on his back like he did for stretches in February.  With that said, they might lose in the first round if they don't pick it up in the paint...

Overall Look at the Southeast Region
There isn't a team in the region that the Cougars could not beat.  That is not a Final Four prediction, just to be clear.  Just a statement that BYU could have had it a lot worse.  St. John's is a 6-seed that BYU could easily beat if the Cougars shoot the ball well.  Though there aren't any 6-seeds (besides maybe Georgetown) that I think present a really bad matchup for BYU.  BYU would have more confidence going into a game with Florida than they would with any other 2-seed.  And I think the 1-4-5 combination of Pitt, Wisconsin, and K-State presents fewer matchup problems than any of the other combos: Ohio State, Kentucky, and West Virginia; Kansas, Louisville, and Vanderbilt; and Duke and Texas (BYU beat Arizona by over 20 points in each of the past two seasons.  Also I do not think the Wildcats have any chance to advance to the Elite Eight).

All in all, BYU got the best draw that they could have gotten as a 3-seed.  I am definitely happy they got the 3-seed.  I guess the Committee gets a pass from BYU fans this year.  Now, there are legitimate gripes from a lot of other teams, but that's for another post...