Seeding for BYU at this point is all a numbers game. They cannot do anything more for themselves on the court (they could hurt themselves off the court, however). For BYU to nab a 2-seed, they would have to be in the top 8 teams in the NCAA Tournament. NOT going to happen. For BYU to get a 3-seed, they need to be in the top 12. Possibility that I will examine. For BYU to get a 4-seed, they need to be in the top 16. That is definitely going to be the case as there are not 16 other candidates with anything close to BYU's resume.
BYU losing the MWC Tournament Final essentially ensures that SDSU will be in the West Regional and BYU will be in the Southeast. BYU finishing as, at worst, a 4-seed ensures that they will play in Denver the first weekend.
So now, the numbers game. What would it take for BYU secure a 3-seed? First off, this would give them a 2nd round matchup with a 6/11 winner, which is generally preferable to a 5/12 winner. A 6-seed could reasonably be a non-top 25 team (though technically they would be top 24 on the S-curve), which gives a Davies-less BYU team a fighting chance. A 5-seed is most likely a top 20 team. That's a tough draw for BYU right now on the opening weekend...if BYU is to advance out of the first weekend, their best, and perhaps only, shot is to get a 3-seed.
According to Lunardi, BEFORE the games today, BYU joined the following 11 teams in the 1/2/3 lines: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, SDSU, Florida, Louisville, and Connecticut. Of those teams, Texas and Louisville lost. Pitt and Notre Dame had already been eliminated from their tournaments. The other 7 won, 3 of them winning tournament championships. Assume that BYU dropped to the bottom of the 12-pack, which is probably a pretty valid assumption: if not the bottom, then probably second-to-bottom.
So it really comes down to one or two 4-seeds jumping BYU (or 5 seeds, but none of them won today so they are out). Lunardi had the 4-seeds as: Kentucky, Purdue, Syracuse, and Wisconsin. Kentucky beat a bubble team. The others had already been eliminated from their tournaments. So the battle for the final 3-seeds come down to BYU, Louisville, Texas, and Kentucky, with 3 of the 4 getting 3-seeds and the last getting a 4-seed. BYU fans should be cheering for Florida to beat Kentucky by 18 or more on Sunday.
If you trust Lunardi's seeding (which I don't necessarily know about, though I do trust his ability to pick the field), then BYU should be OK to still make the 3-line. Comparing resumes, BYU doesn't have the high-end wins those 3 teams have, but it also doesn't have the low-end losses either. BYU has the highest RPI of the 3. It's strength of schedule is in the ballpark. And they have The Jimmer, though they are without the "sex offender." (Thank you, I'm here all week)
It really comes down to three things: Kentucky not winning the SEC Championship, how the Committee views BYU without Davies, and how much impact The Jimmer has on the Committee's mindset for BYU. His 52 points on Friday night certainly shows that he is capable of putting his team on his back in a big-time situation. It certainly couldn't hurt BYU's cause. My best guess is, BYU will end up as the last 3-seed. BYU fans would certainly find no consolation in being the highest 4-seed. For the first time in my life, I find myself being a Gator fan on Sunday. Is a blowout win too much too ask for? I've had to deal with greaseball Gator alum Noah on my Bulls for several years now (though I must admit he is a darn good player), please give me something in return this year.
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