Gonzaga-BYU Preview

How They Got Here
BYU got an at-large bid, after compiling a 30-4 record, including a share of the MWC Regular Season Championship.  They then beat 14-seeded, and second-time in a row in the NCAA Tournament, Wofford by 8, 74-66.  They won the game by valuing the basketball (only 10 turnovers), sharing the basketball (14 assists on 24 baskets), and great team rebounding (4 players with 5 or more rebounds).

Gonzaga got an automatic bid by beating St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference Tournament.  They then beat 6-seeded St. John's by 15, 86-71, and it wasn't that close.  They won by dominating the glass (41 rebounds to 18 by St. John's), making the extra pass (9-15 on threes, 20 assists), and by defending well without fouling (only 15 team fouls).

How They'll Get Past Here
The formula for BYU is simple: makes shots and score points.  BYU will find it difficult to beat Gonzaga shooting 39.3% from the field.  They will need to do better than making only 6 threes, especially in 22 attempts.  They probably will need more than 74 points.  They will probably need more than 10 fast break points.  Making more shots, along with getting some offensive rebounds and they will win easily.  The reason Gonzaga dominated St. John's on the glass was getting 29 defensive rebounds to just 4 offensive rebounds for St. John's.  That ratio needs to be a lot closer to 3:1 than 7:1 for BYU to have a chance, unless they decide to shoot 60%, then it won't matter...
Defensively, they need Noah Hartsock to stay out of foul trouble.  Noah is a solid defender, with decent size, good agility, and good rebounding sense.  The dropoff to James Anderson is ridiculous, and Logan Magnusson just isn't big enough to do anything against a guy with 6 inches and 40 pounds on him.  Hartsock can also make Gonzaga pay on the offensive end, as Sacre has to guard him too.  They'll need 32-34 minutes out of Hartsock.

Gonzaga offensively needs to exercise good shot selection like they did against St. John's.  They made the extra pass, giving up a good shot for a better shot.  They pushed the tempo when they had numbers, but they didn't force what wasn't there.  They controlled the pace of the game from start to finish (which is easy to do when you grab every rebound on the other end).  All of these things together allowed them to shoot 54% from the field, 60% from three.  Anything close to those numbers again and it'll be on to the Sweet 16.
Defensively, if they do not allow second chance opportunities, they should be fine.  They might be better served to play BYU straight up, and let Jimmer get his and keep everyone else in check.  They have a human eraser under the basket in Sacre, so if they take Jimmer's outside shot away, make him drive into the 7-footer, while staying home on shooters, they will stifle BYU.  Unless Jimmer gets Sacre in foul trouble...

Mo Predicts
BYU will play better than they did against Wofford.  Gonzaga will play worse than they did against St. John's.  That means: the fans will get a good game.  If either Jackson Emery or Stephen Rogers can give BYU three 3-pointers (or five combined between them), with aggressive driving by Collinsworth and Abouo, BYU will be tough to stop.  I foresee this game playing at BYU's tempo though.  If the game is close in the last 7 minutes, BYU just has a knack for making the plays that set them up down the stretch.  Kemba Walker may be the guy you want on your team in the last minute, but I'll take Jimmer the last 6 minutes any day.  He does his work then so he doesn't have to hit the big shot at the end.  As thin as BYU is, as fatigued as they will be, if they can stay within 2-4 points of Gonzaga, I like Jimmer and the Cougars to have a late surge and win the game.  BYU 79. Gonzaga 73.  Jimmer scores 41.