Before the Season
As the season was getting started, I looked at BYU's big men and had happy thoughts. Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth were all good players offensively and defensively. Stephen Rogers was a potential Tavernari-type. Logan Magnusson had worked himself to be a team captain in the offseason. James Anderson was supposedly improved. Then as the season started it became apparent that Rogers was too skinny to defend in the post. Magnusson's effort is only enough to overcome his lack of size against lesser PFs, and offensively he still isn't any good. Anderson may have been improved, but his shots still weren't falling and his lack of coordination and athleticism was readily apparent on the defensive end as well. Then Collinsworth went down with a season-ending injury. Kick Davies off the team and Hartsock is the only one left that BYU can count on. They went from a load of potential to a load of...something else.
Deep Tournament Runs?
There were some NCAA Tournament games that BYU was not going to match up well in. Those teams that BYU might face in the Elite Eight or Final Four were going to be tough as it was: Kansas, Ohio State, and Purdue. Now those teams are unbeatable for BYU. BYU was going to have a tough time slowing the Morris twins, Jared Sullinger, or Purdue's two-headed beast in the post. Now there simply are not the bodies to compete. How is Charles Abouo or James Anderson going to slow down guys that 6'8" big-bodied, athletic, well-coached players have had a tough time slowing down? Against KU, BYU would lose the rebounding battle by 10-20. Much like, prior to the football season, BYU had no chance against Florida State and TCU, if BYU has one of these teams in their path, they will be eliminated.
BYU's Sweet 16/Elite Eight Prospects?
Games that were going to be really tough match-ups in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, now become uphill battles: Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, and San Diego State. These teams have solid players at both the 4 and the 5. BYU will have a tough time keeping them from getting good shots in teh post and keeping them off the offensive glass. I wouldn't like our chances against any of these teams either, though it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Round of 32 Struggles Too?
Games that BYU might have struggled a bit in the Round of 32 will suddenly become really tough games: Kentucky, Georgetown, George Mason, and Texas A&M. I think offensively, BYU can still compete with these types of teams, it's on the defensive side that BYU is really hurt here.
Overall Outlook
BYU will really have to shoot well in the tournament. They will have to outscore people now. The prospects for stopping other teams and securing defensive rebounds will be a whole lot tougher now. The good news is: they can do it. The bad news is: even great shooters have an off-night every 6 games (it takes 6 NCAA Tournament wins to win it all...). With Jimmer, you can never count BYU out, even if the matchups are completely out of whack on the interior.
Even though whatever Davies did was a personal choice, probably knowing it was wrong, you can't help but feel for the young man. BYU was in the midst of a magical season, with quite possibly their best team ever. How will he handle the feeling of disappointing his teammates, his family, and BYU nation? They went from Final Four contender to "can they get out of the first weekend" again. I hope he can overcome this and become a better man. BYU will have its own struggles to overcome this and not become a worse team. They are still a good team, but they took a big inside hit. Does the Jimmer have it in him to carry the team on his back for 4-6 NCAA Tournament games? If BYU can't stop anyone inside, would it be enough anyway?
BYU very much resembles a poor man's Big East team: all about the guard play, with one big body down low. Looking even further, BYU has essentially become a similar team to last year's team with no real inside scoring presence. The other downside is the lack of offensive rebounding and the defense BYU gets from the 4 is that much worse. At this point, BYU should be able to still secure a trip to the Sweet 16. At that point, it's all about matchups. And the chances are not good that BYU will match up well from that point on...
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