New Mexico-BYU, Round 3

The New Mexico Mystery
This is the matchup that BYU had to want.  Beating CSU for a third time says nothing.  Beating New Mexico says a lot.  Of course, losing a third time to New Mexico says a lot too...although I think it says as much about New Mexico as it does about BYU: why can't they treat every game like it's against BYU?  There is no way a team that beats BYU 3 times in a season should lose twice to SDSU, UNLV, and Utah!  They shouldn't lose at Wyoming.  They shouldn't have a 3-game and a 4-game losing streak in conference play.  They shouldn't be a 5-seed.  And they shouldn't have finished .500 in the conference.  Their only two MWC games to this point where they scored more than 80 points were against BYU (though they did score exactly 80 against TCU).  In 15 other MWC games, against some pretty bad teams, mind you, their two best games were against BYU.  Lobo fans probably love the fact that they could beat BYU three teams.  I would hate it.  I would wonder why my team was probably going on the road in the NIT if they were that capable, but that's just me and my high expectations.

Why It's Big and Why Both Teams Could Struggle
Both teams need this game: New Mexico to have a chance for the NCAA Tournament, BYU to have confidence going into the NCAA Tournament.  Mentally, New Mexico has the edge.  Physically, it's got to be pretty even.  With BYU, they have some size and depth issues.  James Anderson is the biggest body, but he proved to be entirely worthless against New Mexico last game.  With New Mexico, they have some injury issues.  Their two best defenders, that have stymied Jimmer more than anybody in the conference, are both battling significant ailments.  My guess is, once the lights go on, they won't show any semblance of their injuries and will be just fine.

Home Court for the 5-Seed
The question remains: can New Mexico make it 3-3 with amazing shooting performances against BYU?  Well, the closer the game is, the more likely that happens.  SDSU and UNLV fans will file in the final 10 minutes and turn it into a home game for New Mexico (though the smart thing to do would be to cheer for BYU so your team can get another crack at them.  Of course, I gave up on expecting smart things from people associated with this conference a long time ago).  BYU must lead, and they must lead big.

Prediction
Well, I made my prediction at the start of the tournament.  BYU wins and plays UNLV in the Final.  I will stick with that.  BYU will find ways to score against hobbled Lobos.  The Cougars will be much more aggressive.  New Mexico will (finally) miss some shots.  Realistically, I think it comes down to how tight the game is called: if they actually call some fouls on New Mexico when they foul on EVERY possession, BYU could win this game running away.  But I have zero confidence in MWC officials to be fair and objective in their final chance to officiate a BYU game.  The reason BYU plays so poorly against New Mexico is that the Lobos play so physical, i.e. they foul all the time, knowing that the refs can't call everything (I call this the Michigan State defense).  BYU players get so frustrated that the refs are missing so many fouls and play poorly.  Meanwhile, the Lobos must just laugh at how much hacking they get away with, and it allows them to play looser on offense and make everything they throw up there.

I try to be objective in my blog, but my utter hatred for the petty people of the MWC and for the vile fans of the New Mexico Lobos just spews over on a day like today.  Go Cougars.  Bury those freaking Lobos and send them back to that craphole where they came from and belong.  BYU 83, New Mexico 78