In Week 2, my model didn't do quite as well as in Week 1. It was 33-8, though it correctly identified Georgia over South Carolina and Miami over Florida. The funny thing is, one of my main motivations for creating the model was that I could NEVER seem to pick BYU right. So I wanted this to take the subjectivity out of my BYU predictions. It's 0-2 picking BYU so far! Overall, it is 64-10, though after a retroactive change (I gave the service academies a small ratings boost: I had identified a systemic underrating of the academies in the preseason, but it was evident that, as I predicted outside of the model, they would beat Indiana, so I finally made that adjustment), it changes to 65-9. I believe there are a few other teams I should apply that same logic too (Northwestern being the first and foremost).
So, here are the models Week 2 predictions:
Why Play These Games? 30+-point favorites
LSU over Kent State
Florida State over Nevada
Michigan over Akron
Northwestern over Western Michigan
Arkansas over Southern Mississippi
Kansas State over Massachusetts
Rutgers over Eastern Michigan
NIU over Idaho (at least it's a road game for NIU)
3-4 TD Favorites
Oklahoma over Tulsa
Arizona over UTSA
Boise State over Air Force
Rice over Kansas (my model likes Rice)
Middle Tennessee over Memphis
West Virginia over Georgia State
Washington over Illinois
Notre Dame over Purdue
Stanford over Army
Ohio State over Cal
Louisville over Kentucky (ACC exposing façade of SEC defenses this year)
Bowling Green over Indiana
10-20 Point Winners
Oregon over Tennessee
South Carolina over Vanderbilt
Auburn over Mississippi State
USC over Boston College
Ohio over Marshall
Penn State over UCF
Pittsburgh over New Mexico
Fresno State over Colorado
USF over Florida Atlantic
Alabama over Texas A&M
More than a FG, less than a FG/TD
Nebraska over UCLA
ECU over Virginia Tech
Utah over Oregon State (preseason, this was a toss-up)
UNLV over Central Michigan
New Mexico State over UTEP
Iowa over Iowa State
Toss-ups (within 3 points predicted)
Texas over Ole Miss (actually have two models predicting side-by-side, one has Ole Miss by 2, other has Texas by 1)
Arizona State over Wisconsin (same as with UT-Ole Miss)
Model had TCU edging out Tech: WRONG
Louisiana-Monroe over Wake Forest
Ball State over North Texas
Maryland over Connecticut
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
BYU's 2013 Opponents in Week Three
Virginia
After getting drubbed by Oregon last weekend to drop to 1-1, Virginia gets a week off to prepare for an FCS school in week 4.
Texas
The Longhorns are looking to rebound with a new DC against a rising Ole Miss team. I had Ole Miss as a preseason top 10 team. Of course, I had Texas there as well...I still believe Texas has a lot in the tank for the season, if they can avoid tearing apart at the seams. I think Ole Miss is still a bit out of their league playing such a road game: there's still a lot of young players on the squad and winning at Vandy isn't the same as winning at Texas. The SEC has shown a vulnerability to good offenses so far this young season (something I've been saying for a long time: there just aren't but one or two good offenses in their league so their defenses look amazing). Texas isn't necessarily good but they have explosiveness.
Utah
The Utes start their gauntlet run that determines just what kind of season they are going to have. After finding a way to beat Utah State, they had a glorified scrimmage against a bad Weber State team (even by Weber's low standards). They host Oregon State to open Pac 12 play. In the preseason, my model had this game as a toss-up. As a result of Utah's win over Utah State and Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington, this has moved up to a 7-point win for the Utes (Utes have moved from 49 to 35, Oregon State from 16 to 46). Dennis Erickson has been a much better offensive coordinator than the Utes have ever had. So far at least. He'll be challenged in two very different ways the next two games. Oregon State will apply pressure by scoring a lot of points. BYU will apply it by playing solid defense.
Middle Tennessee
I thought the Blue Raiders showed well at North Carolina, in spite of the loss. They host Memphis this weekend. They should win easy.
Utah State
Chuckie had a great day against Air Force, but this was meant to be a down year for the Falcons. They get Weber, who will not lose by 63 to the Aggies. 43, perhaps...
Georgia Tech
The Bumblebees play at Duke this weekend in their second game of the year (first real game). This is Duke's third game (but first real game). If Duke is to make a bowl game this year, they probably need to at least show well in this game, and probably need to win it. The Bees should win by double digits...
Houston
After a big win over Temple on the road in conference play, the Red Cougars take a breather this weekend. Next up, they play at Rice, which should actually be an amazing game...
Boise State
The Broncos get a Friday night opportunity to embarrass Air Force. Both teams were involved in blowouts last weekend, though on opposing ends. I suspect the same will happen here. I wish I had better vibes for Air Force this season, but by all accounts, it's just one of those years where they don't have the horses.
Wisconsin
We know absolutely nothing about Wisconsin after their 2-0 start. Now we find out something: they play at Arizona State. My model has Badgers #27 and Sun Devils #34, with a 1-point edge to the home team. I expect a somewhat higher-scoring affair.
Notre Dame
Time to see how the Irish respond after losing a regular season game. It's a solid, but not spectacular offense paired with a spectacular front 7 and average DBs. Last week, Michigan was able to exploit them. This week, Purdue will not do the same. Model says ND by 3 TDs.
Nevada
The Wolfpack are actually the biggest dog I have in terms of BYU's opponents as they play at Florida State and my model says they lose by 40 points...will it really be that bad? We shall see. But it wouldn't surprise me...
Overall
My model says 7-2 for BYU's opponents this week, with a loss by Wisconsin at Arizona State and by Nevada at Florida State. That's 21-9 on the season (if my predictions are correct) for BYU's opponents this season, which is great at this point!
After getting drubbed by Oregon last weekend to drop to 1-1, Virginia gets a week off to prepare for an FCS school in week 4.
Texas
The Longhorns are looking to rebound with a new DC against a rising Ole Miss team. I had Ole Miss as a preseason top 10 team. Of course, I had Texas there as well...I still believe Texas has a lot in the tank for the season, if they can avoid tearing apart at the seams. I think Ole Miss is still a bit out of their league playing such a road game: there's still a lot of young players on the squad and winning at Vandy isn't the same as winning at Texas. The SEC has shown a vulnerability to good offenses so far this young season (something I've been saying for a long time: there just aren't but one or two good offenses in their league so their defenses look amazing). Texas isn't necessarily good but they have explosiveness.
Utah
The Utes start their gauntlet run that determines just what kind of season they are going to have. After finding a way to beat Utah State, they had a glorified scrimmage against a bad Weber State team (even by Weber's low standards). They host Oregon State to open Pac 12 play. In the preseason, my model had this game as a toss-up. As a result of Utah's win over Utah State and Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington, this has moved up to a 7-point win for the Utes (Utes have moved from 49 to 35, Oregon State from 16 to 46). Dennis Erickson has been a much better offensive coordinator than the Utes have ever had. So far at least. He'll be challenged in two very different ways the next two games. Oregon State will apply pressure by scoring a lot of points. BYU will apply it by playing solid defense.
Middle Tennessee
I thought the Blue Raiders showed well at North Carolina, in spite of the loss. They host Memphis this weekend. They should win easy.
Utah State
Chuckie had a great day against Air Force, but this was meant to be a down year for the Falcons. They get Weber, who will not lose by 63 to the Aggies. 43, perhaps...
Georgia Tech
The Bumblebees play at Duke this weekend in their second game of the year (first real game). This is Duke's third game (but first real game). If Duke is to make a bowl game this year, they probably need to at least show well in this game, and probably need to win it. The Bees should win by double digits...
Houston
After a big win over Temple on the road in conference play, the Red Cougars take a breather this weekend. Next up, they play at Rice, which should actually be an amazing game...
Boise State
The Broncos get a Friday night opportunity to embarrass Air Force. Both teams were involved in blowouts last weekend, though on opposing ends. I suspect the same will happen here. I wish I had better vibes for Air Force this season, but by all accounts, it's just one of those years where they don't have the horses.
Wisconsin
We know absolutely nothing about Wisconsin after their 2-0 start. Now we find out something: they play at Arizona State. My model has Badgers #27 and Sun Devils #34, with a 1-point edge to the home team. I expect a somewhat higher-scoring affair.
Notre Dame
Time to see how the Irish respond after losing a regular season game. It's a solid, but not spectacular offense paired with a spectacular front 7 and average DBs. Last week, Michigan was able to exploit them. This week, Purdue will not do the same. Model says ND by 3 TDs.
Nevada
The Wolfpack are actually the biggest dog I have in terms of BYU's opponents as they play at Florida State and my model says they lose by 40 points...will it really be that bad? We shall see. But it wouldn't surprise me...
Overall
My model says 7-2 for BYU's opponents this week, with a loss by Wisconsin at Arizona State and by Nevada at Florida State. That's 21-9 on the season (if my predictions are correct) for BYU's opponents this season, which is great at this point!
Monday, September 9, 2013
Three Texas-BYU Stats of Note
Obviously the rushing record is incredible. 550 rushing yards against anybody is incredible, even when the triple option teams play bad FCS schools, but this was a ranked BCS team (that may not be any good at all, but still). Three separate BYU players set career highs in rushing yards (Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams, and Paul Lasike), along with setting BYU and Texas records too.
Completion % Is On Anae Now
To me the biggest stat is 9-26, 36% completion percentage, for Taysom Hill. To me, this isn't an issue of Taysom Hill at this point. This is on Anae. These throws are all intermediate or deep throws. Anae isn't calling slants, quick outs, screens or swing passes. Most of Hill's throws are up the field where he just isn't comfortable yet. Let the man build some confidence and then let him get the ball up the field. BYU will not be able to run at will against Utah. The passing game has to be there. Barring another 350+ yard rushing game, anything sub-50% will be 4 years in a row of losses to a team that was maybe marginally better on average (on paper). Anae has to get Hill in better situations throwing the football!
Avoiding Three and Out
I thought the fact that BYU only had 3 three and outs was another important stat for the offense. Last week, nearly half the possessions were three and out. The difference between Virginia and Texas: 3rd and short to avoid a third straight three and out against Texas, Taysom keeps and runs for a 68-yard TD. Taysom wasn't comfortable enough doing that against Virginia. Credit Anae for making adjustments in the running game to get Taysom ready. He needs to copy that in the passing game!
Limit Texas' Big Plays
In Week One, Texas burned New Mexico State for 10 plays over 20 yards. Going into the game, I had hoped BYU would keep this number under 7, and if they could keep it to 5 or fewer, I figured BYU would have a legitimate chance to win. BYU gave up 4 meaningful plays over 20 yards and a 5th in the final 30 seconds of the game.
Mo Thoughts
If all I knew going into the game was that BYU would be -2 in turnover margin, Taysom would be under 40% again, and Texas would gain 445 yards (including 313 in the air), I'd have said BYU was dead in the water. The OL was flying around out there. They just beat Texas into submission with their physicality from start of play to the whistle (and a couple hits maybe slightly after the whistle).
Several of you have asked me what I thought of the game. It was probably about the same as you. My first initial thought was: how did BYU do something like this against Texas? Followed immediately by: how did the Cougars lose to Virginia? If BYU managed a 10-2 finish (I am not making that prediction, FYI, sticking with my 8-4), how much would it hurt to know that the one thing b/w BYU and a BCS game was Virginia...
Heading into Utah, BYU gets a bye to regroup and refocus. I would like to see the Cougars play with passion for once. This year's Utah game cannot be "just another game" as BYU has played it so many times under Bronco. BYU has to want it more than Utah this year b/c the teams are so evenly matched. Play with some fire, hatred if it must be: that has been the Utes secret weapon for so many years in the rivalry. BYU has been too "classy" on the field and it's led to complete mental, followed by physical, annihilation. Stoop to their level this year: be a little classless, Cougars!
Completion % Is On Anae Now
To me the biggest stat is 9-26, 36% completion percentage, for Taysom Hill. To me, this isn't an issue of Taysom Hill at this point. This is on Anae. These throws are all intermediate or deep throws. Anae isn't calling slants, quick outs, screens or swing passes. Most of Hill's throws are up the field where he just isn't comfortable yet. Let the man build some confidence and then let him get the ball up the field. BYU will not be able to run at will against Utah. The passing game has to be there. Barring another 350+ yard rushing game, anything sub-50% will be 4 years in a row of losses to a team that was maybe marginally better on average (on paper). Anae has to get Hill in better situations throwing the football!
Avoiding Three and Out
I thought the fact that BYU only had 3 three and outs was another important stat for the offense. Last week, nearly half the possessions were three and out. The difference between Virginia and Texas: 3rd and short to avoid a third straight three and out against Texas, Taysom keeps and runs for a 68-yard TD. Taysom wasn't comfortable enough doing that against Virginia. Credit Anae for making adjustments in the running game to get Taysom ready. He needs to copy that in the passing game!
Limit Texas' Big Plays
In Week One, Texas burned New Mexico State for 10 plays over 20 yards. Going into the game, I had hoped BYU would keep this number under 7, and if they could keep it to 5 or fewer, I figured BYU would have a legitimate chance to win. BYU gave up 4 meaningful plays over 20 yards and a 5th in the final 30 seconds of the game.
Mo Thoughts
If all I knew going into the game was that BYU would be -2 in turnover margin, Taysom would be under 40% again, and Texas would gain 445 yards (including 313 in the air), I'd have said BYU was dead in the water. The OL was flying around out there. They just beat Texas into submission with their physicality from start of play to the whistle (and a couple hits maybe slightly after the whistle).
Several of you have asked me what I thought of the game. It was probably about the same as you. My first initial thought was: how did BYU do something like this against Texas? Followed immediately by: how did the Cougars lose to Virginia? If BYU managed a 10-2 finish (I am not making that prediction, FYI, sticking with my 8-4), how much would it hurt to know that the one thing b/w BYU and a BCS game was Virginia...
Heading into Utah, BYU gets a bye to regroup and refocus. I would like to see the Cougars play with passion for once. This year's Utah game cannot be "just another game" as BYU has played it so many times under Bronco. BYU has to want it more than Utah this year b/c the teams are so evenly matched. Play with some fire, hatred if it must be: that has been the Utes secret weapon for so many years in the rivalry. BYU has been too "classy" on the field and it's led to complete mental, followed by physical, annihilation. Stoop to their level this year: be a little classless, Cougars!
Saturday, September 7, 2013
Notre Dame at Michigan Prediction
I've been known to be a bit down on Michigan heading into this season, and with good reason. They don't have a ton of experience in their depth chart, they're relying on a ton of freshmen to have immediate impacts, they have an above average QB (that hasn't faced anything similar to ND's D), and their schedule is pretty difficult. I can see them winning 8 games, but perhaps only 7, or even 6. But I don't see them contending for a Big Ten title this season. They'll be eliminated one or two losses before getting beat by Ohio State.
Now enter Notre Dame to a prime time game. The environment won't stress Notre Dame. If anything, the late start might have an impact on them more than anything. Rees has grown up a lot the past two seasons. He found some playmakers last week and looks equally confident in throwing the ball to 4 or 5 different guys. The OL was very assignment sound last week against Temple, which cannot be overlooked in its importance. Physicality is one thing with an OL, which ND has, but if they aren't blocking the right guys, it doesn't matter. They should hold their own against the Wolverines front line. They blocked against better LBs all summer. Honestly, the Michigan D should not bother Notre Dame too much. The Irish can sustain drives and put pressure on Michigan's O to do the same.
However, they may have to put up points. Devin Gardner had a "nice" game against overmatched Central Michigan. But everybody on the offense did. How will Gardner handle the kind of stress the ND front 7 can bring? Connor Reilly, who will be a pretty decent QB for Temple, had a tough time getting things going and ended up completing just 50% of his passes. That will not do. It's got to start with the running game for Michigan. They have the horses to get a nice rhythm going in the ground game, they just can't afford to turn the ball over.
As a Michigan fan I would worry about turning the ball over. Gardner has been known to make poor decisions and got away with quite a few bad throws/decisions last season (in the few games I saw, there were at least 5 or 6, even while throwing 5 picks in 126 attempts, which is maybe slightly above average). Notre Dame does a great job of making you pay for your mistakes. This isn't Central Michigan or Northwestern. You cannot mess up and get away with it.
Notre Dame beat Michigan (in one of the ugliest games I've ever attended) last season. Two years ago, the game had the wild finish with Michigan emerging victorious in the most improbable of manners (that I missed as I was driving from Austin to San Antonio after one of the other ugliest games I've ever attended, BYU at Texas). I can't to see what the 2013 version has in store. If I were a betting man, I'd see that line at -4 to Michigan and I'd take Notre Dame on the money line, just to squeeze some extra juice into my winnings. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 17.
Now enter Notre Dame to a prime time game. The environment won't stress Notre Dame. If anything, the late start might have an impact on them more than anything. Rees has grown up a lot the past two seasons. He found some playmakers last week and looks equally confident in throwing the ball to 4 or 5 different guys. The OL was very assignment sound last week against Temple, which cannot be overlooked in its importance. Physicality is one thing with an OL, which ND has, but if they aren't blocking the right guys, it doesn't matter. They should hold their own against the Wolverines front line. They blocked against better LBs all summer. Honestly, the Michigan D should not bother Notre Dame too much. The Irish can sustain drives and put pressure on Michigan's O to do the same.
However, they may have to put up points. Devin Gardner had a "nice" game against overmatched Central Michigan. But everybody on the offense did. How will Gardner handle the kind of stress the ND front 7 can bring? Connor Reilly, who will be a pretty decent QB for Temple, had a tough time getting things going and ended up completing just 50% of his passes. That will not do. It's got to start with the running game for Michigan. They have the horses to get a nice rhythm going in the ground game, they just can't afford to turn the ball over.
As a Michigan fan I would worry about turning the ball over. Gardner has been known to make poor decisions and got away with quite a few bad throws/decisions last season (in the few games I saw, there were at least 5 or 6, even while throwing 5 picks in 126 attempts, which is maybe slightly above average). Notre Dame does a great job of making you pay for your mistakes. This isn't Central Michigan or Northwestern. You cannot mess up and get away with it.
Notre Dame beat Michigan (in one of the ugliest games I've ever attended) last season. Two years ago, the game had the wild finish with Michigan emerging victorious in the most improbable of manners (that I missed as I was driving from Austin to San Antonio after one of the other ugliest games I've ever attended, BYU at Texas). I can't to see what the 2013 version has in store. If I were a betting man, I'd see that line at -4 to Michigan and I'd take Notre Dame on the money line, just to squeeze some extra juice into my winnings. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 17.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Texas at BYU Prediction
Currently, Vegas has Texas as only 7-point favorites. I heard several ESPN Commentators mention today and during the BC-Wake Forest game talking about BYU's defense being a real test, and potentially a wake-up call for Texas. So BYU fans are not alone in thinking BYU can stay in this contest.
BYU, defensively, can make it hard for Texas. There is no doubt about that in my mind. Until the flood gates opened the last 32 minutes of the game last week, Texas could not sustain drives at all. After that first big play TD, NMSU couldn't hold the Horns to plays of less than 50 yards. If BYU can force Texas to drive down the field on them, it'll be a long night for them offensively. Especially at altitude. Except for the redshirt seniors (who actually played as freshmen), no one on the roster has played a collegiate game over 1,000 feet above sea level.
However, on the flip side, BYU didn't do much offensively at Virginia. Conditions were different, obviously, but BYU could not get back-to-back first downs for basically the entire game. They had a drive here and a drive there, but that was it: here once and there once and never again. New Mexico State had some success against Texas throwing the football. They broke 100 yards rushing, but averaged just 2.7 yards/carry (with only 1 sack, meaning that 2.7 was 37 times trying to run the ball).
Texas, while squelching the run, didn't get to the QB last week. BYU has a nimble QB and, while the OL has been underperforming for too many years ow, a better line than the NMSU Aggies. A first year starting QB completed 70% of his passes against the Longhorns. BYU's WRs should be better, even if Andrew McDonald is a better QB at this point in time than Taysom Hill. Hill, after completing a paltry 32% last week in a monsoon, should see that creep up north of 60%. If not, BYU is in trouble. Jamaal Williams can run the football, but if there is no threat of a passing attack, Texas can key in on him and man-up in the passing game.
To win, BYU needs to eliminate big offensive plays by the Longhorns. They need to average at least 3.5/carry and run the ball 30-40 times. They need to complete 60% of their passes and average over 6 yards/attempt and over 10 yards/completion. They need to possess the ball at least 28 minutes. They can't get caught running 90+ plays in 26 minutes. If they can get the Texas offense impatient (which they won't do with 6 play 75 second drives), it might lead to opportunities for turnovers. There is no reason they couldn't do any of those things. Doing all of them, on the other hand, might prove difficult.
Texas has some studs at WR. They have coaches that know when to push pace and when to slow it down (though I think they have a tendency to overthrow, which may be especially tempting given BYU's concerns in the secondary). BYU probably won't be able to contain big plays for 4 quarters. So they'll need to generate a few of their own. If Hoffman plays, if Van Noy gets in the zone, if Taysom's legs get rolling, then there is potential for some fireworks.
So yes, BYU could win the game. However, I marked this one down as an L as soon as spring practice was over. My statistical model (which admittedly has a slobbering love affair with the Longhorns) initially liked Texas by 13, but now it's down to 9 points. I think there will be some offense in this game for both teams. Texas is vulnerable on D and BYU should be able to get a couple of plays down the field. But I think Texas brings too much firepower and BYU's red zone O is unproven (and I think will be proven ineffective against Texas' front 7). It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU in it, possibly even leading in the 3rd Q. But ultimately Texas wins a game where the final score is not indicative of the game: Texas 34, BYU 23.
That's my thoughts, how about you? #TEXvsBYU #BYUFootball
BYU, defensively, can make it hard for Texas. There is no doubt about that in my mind. Until the flood gates opened the last 32 minutes of the game last week, Texas could not sustain drives at all. After that first big play TD, NMSU couldn't hold the Horns to plays of less than 50 yards. If BYU can force Texas to drive down the field on them, it'll be a long night for them offensively. Especially at altitude. Except for the redshirt seniors (who actually played as freshmen), no one on the roster has played a collegiate game over 1,000 feet above sea level.
However, on the flip side, BYU didn't do much offensively at Virginia. Conditions were different, obviously, but BYU could not get back-to-back first downs for basically the entire game. They had a drive here and a drive there, but that was it: here once and there once and never again. New Mexico State had some success against Texas throwing the football. They broke 100 yards rushing, but averaged just 2.7 yards/carry (with only 1 sack, meaning that 2.7 was 37 times trying to run the ball).
Texas, while squelching the run, didn't get to the QB last week. BYU has a nimble QB and, while the OL has been underperforming for too many years ow, a better line than the NMSU Aggies. A first year starting QB completed 70% of his passes against the Longhorns. BYU's WRs should be better, even if Andrew McDonald is a better QB at this point in time than Taysom Hill. Hill, after completing a paltry 32% last week in a monsoon, should see that creep up north of 60%. If not, BYU is in trouble. Jamaal Williams can run the football, but if there is no threat of a passing attack, Texas can key in on him and man-up in the passing game.
To win, BYU needs to eliminate big offensive plays by the Longhorns. They need to average at least 3.5/carry and run the ball 30-40 times. They need to complete 60% of their passes and average over 6 yards/attempt and over 10 yards/completion. They need to possess the ball at least 28 minutes. They can't get caught running 90+ plays in 26 minutes. If they can get the Texas offense impatient (which they won't do with 6 play 75 second drives), it might lead to opportunities for turnovers. There is no reason they couldn't do any of those things. Doing all of them, on the other hand, might prove difficult.
Texas has some studs at WR. They have coaches that know when to push pace and when to slow it down (though I think they have a tendency to overthrow, which may be especially tempting given BYU's concerns in the secondary). BYU probably won't be able to contain big plays for 4 quarters. So they'll need to generate a few of their own. If Hoffman plays, if Van Noy gets in the zone, if Taysom's legs get rolling, then there is potential for some fireworks.
So yes, BYU could win the game. However, I marked this one down as an L as soon as spring practice was over. My statistical model (which admittedly has a slobbering love affair with the Longhorns) initially liked Texas by 13, but now it's down to 9 points. I think there will be some offense in this game for both teams. Texas is vulnerable on D and BYU should be able to get a couple of plays down the field. But I think Texas brings too much firepower and BYU's red zone O is unproven (and I think will be proven ineffective against Texas' front 7). It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU in it, possibly even leading in the 3rd Q. But ultimately Texas wins a game where the final score is not indicative of the game: Texas 34, BYU 23.
That's my thoughts, how about you? #TEXvsBYU #BYUFootball
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Here are the post week 1 rankings. Ole Miss moved up, as did Clemson. Georgia (loss) and Stanford (bye) moved out of the top 10. BYU still checked in the top 50 at #49.
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Ohio State |
| 3 | Ole Miss |
| 4 | Texas |
| 5 | LSU |
| 6 | Notre Dame |
| 7 | Florida State |
| 8 | Oregon |
| 9 | Nebraska |
| 10 | Oklahoma |
| 11 | Stanford |
| 12 | Clemson |
| 13 | OK State |
| 14 | Georgia |
| 15 | Miami |
| 16 | Florida |
| 17 | Washington |
| 18 | Louisville |
| 19 | Wisconsin |
| 20 | Michigan State |
| 21 | USC |
| 22 | TCU |
| 23 | NIU |
| 24 | ECU |
| 25 | Texas A&M |
| 26 | South Carolina |
| 27 | Bowling Green |
| 28 | Arizona State |
| 29 | Oregon State |
| 30 | Boise State |
| 31 | Fresno State |
| 32 | Georgia Tech |
| 33 | Auburn |
| 34 | Tennessee |
| 35 | Virginia Tech |
| 36 | UCLA |
| 37 | Arizona |
| 38 | Cincinnati |
| 39 | Utah State |
| 40 | Michigan |
| 41 | Utah |
| 42 | Ohio |
| 43 | NC State |
| 44 | Kansas State |
| 45 | Missouri |
| 46 | Rice |
| 47 | Northwestern |
| 48 | Mississippi State |
| 49 | BYU |
| 50 | Arkansas |
| 51 | Minnesota |
| 52 | Texas Tech |
| 53 | Baylor |
| 54 | Toledo |
| 55 | Vanderbilt |
| 56 | Rutgers |
| 57 | MTSU |
| 58 | Penn State |
| 59 | Marshall |
| 60 | North Carolina |
| 61 | ULM |
| 62 | Lafayette |
| 63 | Houston |
| 64 | Boston College |
| 65 | WKU |
| 66 | San Jose State |
| 67 | Wake Forest |
| 68 | Temple |
| 69 | Pittsburgh |
| 70 | Arkansas State |
| 71 | Ball State |
| 72 | Purdue |
| 73 | Navy |
| 74 | San Diego State |
| 75 | Tulsa |
| 76 | Virginia |
| 77 | West Virginia |
| 78 | Duke |
| 79 | UCF |
| 80 | Texas State |
| 81 | Indiana |
| 82 | Washington State |
| 83 | UTSA |
| 84 | North Texas |
| 85 | USF |
| 86 | Kentucky |
| 87 | Troy |
| 88 | Connecticut |
| 89 | Iowa |
| 90 | Buffalo |
| 91 | Hawaii |
| 92 | Illinois |
| 93 | Kent State |
| 94 | Colorado State |
| 95 | Colorado |
| 96 | Syracuse |
| 97 | SMU |
| 98 | UNLV |
| 99 | Nevada |
| 100 | Army |
| 101 | Memphis |
| 102 | California |
| 103 | ODU |
| 104 | Maryland |
| 105 | South Alabama |
| 106 | CMU |
| 107 | Iowa St |
| 108 | Air Force |
| 109 | Tulane |
| 110 | Wyoming |
| 111 | Kansas |
| 112 | Southern Mississippi |
| 113 | Louisiana Tech |
| 114 | UAB |
| 115 | New Mexico State |
| 116 | Georgia State |
| 117 | UTEP |
| 118 | EMU |
| 119 | WMU |
| 120 | FAU |
| 121 | New Mexico |
| 122 | Miami OH |
| 123 | Akron |
| 124 | U Mass |
| 125 | FIU |
| 126 | Idaho |
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Checking Mo's Model in Week One
So I spent hours and hours this summer putting together a statistical model to attempt to predict individual games and season record for teams. Here is a brief recap of how it did.
The model missed all 8 of the FCS wins over FBS teams. My model isn't really designed for finding which of those FCS "upsets" will happen, since I only include data for FBS schools. In looking back at the actual losses that occurred, my model would have predicted 3 of the 8 games correctly if I had included the FCS data into it.
Excluding FCS games and looking at straight winners, not looking at the point spread, the model went 32-2. The only misses: BYU at Virginia and Colorado State vs. Colorado.
So the model was accurate in predicting the other upsets and close games that occurred over the weekend. It got Clemson over Georgia, LSU over TCU, Ole Miss over Vandy, Washington over Boise State, Fresno State over Rutgers, Cincinnati over Purdue, Northwestern over Cal, Texas Tech over SMU, Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Texas State over Southern Mississippi, UTSA over New Mexico, and Troy over UAB.
If you are in a Pick'Em League, here are my "upset" (or close game) picks for the week:
Boston College over Wake Forest
Miami over Florida
Temple over Houston (Houston better team, but on the road)
Bowling Green over Kent State
Ball State over Army
Utah State over Air Force
Georgia over South Carolina
Duke over Memphis
Indiana over Navy (Navy better team, but on the road: I personally will pick Navy here)
Texas over BYU
Notre Dame over Michigan
UTEP over New Mexico
I haven't actually looked at the FCS matchups yet, I'd put UMass, Akron, Western Michigan, and Georgia State on upset alert. Kansas, Colorado, and Vanderbilt are the 3 BCS teams I think most likely to lose...
The model missed all 8 of the FCS wins over FBS teams. My model isn't really designed for finding which of those FCS "upsets" will happen, since I only include data for FBS schools. In looking back at the actual losses that occurred, my model would have predicted 3 of the 8 games correctly if I had included the FCS data into it.
Excluding FCS games and looking at straight winners, not looking at the point spread, the model went 32-2. The only misses: BYU at Virginia and Colorado State vs. Colorado.
So the model was accurate in predicting the other upsets and close games that occurred over the weekend. It got Clemson over Georgia, LSU over TCU, Ole Miss over Vandy, Washington over Boise State, Fresno State over Rutgers, Cincinnati over Purdue, Northwestern over Cal, Texas Tech over SMU, Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Texas State over Southern Mississippi, UTSA over New Mexico, and Troy over UAB.
If you are in a Pick'Em League, here are my "upset" (or close game) picks for the week:
Boston College over Wake Forest
Miami over Florida
Temple over Houston (Houston better team, but on the road)
Bowling Green over Kent State
Ball State over Army
Utah State over Air Force
Georgia over South Carolina
Duke over Memphis
Indiana over Navy (Navy better team, but on the road: I personally will pick Navy here)
Texas over BYU
Notre Dame over Michigan
UTEP over New Mexico
I haven't actually looked at the FCS matchups yet, I'd put UMass, Akron, Western Michigan, and Georgia State on upset alert. Kansas, Colorado, and Vanderbilt are the 3 BCS teams I think most likely to lose...
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Tuesday Tidbits (Late for 9/3/2013): BYU vs. BCS Opponents
Over the last 5 seasons, plus 1 game this season, BYU has played 19 games against teams in BCS conferences. Much to BYU fans' surprise, BYU, in spite of many challenges, has a 9-10 record in those games (most of them think it's worse! Die-hards can't believe it's that bad). The more surprising facts come when looking deeper at the numbers.
First off, remove those 19 games and Bronco Mendenhall has won over 80% of his games, including those games that percentage drops to 70.7%. BYU has rushed for over 100 yards 8 times in those 19 games. 3 times BYU was held to under 50 yards rushing. BYU has passed for 250 yards 9 times, 5 of those were Max Hall. 5 times BYU was held to under 200 yards passing. BYU has scored 28 points or more 8 times. 5 times BYU was held to 14 points or less.
In those 19 games, BYU averaged 116 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 25.2 points/game. In all games over the course of that same period, BYU averaged 152 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 30.9 points/game. In games against non-BCS opponents in the same period, BYU averaged 171 yards rushing, 262 yards passing, and 34.0 points/game.
If someone wanted to quantify BYU's struggles against BCS conference opponents (which I do), this will do it. BYU averages 55 fewer rushing yards, 6 fewer passing yards, and 8.8 fewer points/game. Another key stat that perhaps I will research prior to Utah, appropriately, is how BYU does in the turnover margin against BCS conference opponents.
Anyway, everyone can agree that BCS opponents are more difficult in general, but here is exactly how much more difficult BYU has found them since 2008. It is amazing how big of a difference 61 yards of offense/game makes.
I did some other number crunching to try to get a rough estimate of what BYU needs to accomplish to beat BCS conference opponents. By my calculations BYU needs 135 rushing yards, 250 passing yards, and at least 29 points to win. Additionally, home-field advantage has had some, but minimal, bearing on the outcome of games against BCS conference opponents: BYU is 3-2 at home (60%), 4-6 on the road (40%), and 2-2 at neutral sites (50%).
First off, remove those 19 games and Bronco Mendenhall has won over 80% of his games, including those games that percentage drops to 70.7%. BYU has rushed for over 100 yards 8 times in those 19 games. 3 times BYU was held to under 50 yards rushing. BYU has passed for 250 yards 9 times, 5 of those were Max Hall. 5 times BYU was held to under 200 yards passing. BYU has scored 28 points or more 8 times. 5 times BYU was held to 14 points or less.
In those 19 games, BYU averaged 116 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 25.2 points/game. In all games over the course of that same period, BYU averaged 152 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 30.9 points/game. In games against non-BCS opponents in the same period, BYU averaged 171 yards rushing, 262 yards passing, and 34.0 points/game.
If someone wanted to quantify BYU's struggles against BCS conference opponents (which I do), this will do it. BYU averages 55 fewer rushing yards, 6 fewer passing yards, and 8.8 fewer points/game. Another key stat that perhaps I will research prior to Utah, appropriately, is how BYU does in the turnover margin against BCS conference opponents.
Anyway, everyone can agree that BCS opponents are more difficult in general, but here is exactly how much more difficult BYU has found them since 2008. It is amazing how big of a difference 61 yards of offense/game makes.
I did some other number crunching to try to get a rough estimate of what BYU needs to accomplish to beat BCS conference opponents. By my calculations BYU needs 135 rushing yards, 250 passing yards, and at least 29 points to win. Additionally, home-field advantage has had some, but minimal, bearing on the outcome of games against BCS conference opponents: BYU is 3-2 at home (60%), 4-6 on the road (40%), and 2-2 at neutral sites (50%).
Wednesday Waffle, 9/4/2013
Obviously, the easy thing to debate this week is the 3rd and 6 play call by BYU late in the 4th. Although, I don't think anyone is really waffling about that play: it stunk, and everyone knows it! Even Anae admitted as much...
BYU managed to squeeze 93 plays into 1551 seconds of possession. That means BYU got off one play every 16.7 seconds. The average of each play is generally 5-6 seconds, so realistically, that amounts to running a play 11 seconds after the previous one. Now this approach to measuring plays is a bit simplistic as it doesn't account for incompletions (of which there were many) and brief clock stoppages for first downs and players going out of bounds. However, absent the time to review every single play, it's an easy measure for me to look at. [Contrast that with BYU's home opener against Washington State last season where BYU ran 78 plays in 2134 seconds, or one play every 27.4 seconds, to give you an idea of just how "fast and hard" BYU went against Virginia.]
I recognize that the hurry-up offense is big right now in college football, but the trends I saw the most over the weekend was for other teams to hurry-up only after first downs or in critical short down and distance situations. Those teams tend to be more successful, in my opinion. As has been well documented, teams that ran 88+ plays over the weekend went 3-7. Going fast is good, hurrying is bad.
I believe the hurry-up offense is an effective weapon to have in any team's arsenal, particularly in this day and age. However, I'm waffling on Anae's decision to make this the full-time offense. Or, even if it remains so, perhaps shooting for a little more time between plays, say 22 seconds between plays instead of 16.7 seconds. That is still plenty quick. It does not leave enough time for defensive substitutions. The defense does have more time to get set, but it also allows Taysom Hill time to read the defense, to adjust routes of the WRs, or to identify mismatches he can exploit.
What If BYU Played "Normal"?
Making some simplistic assumptions that everything else stays the same, I want to go through an intellectual approach to BYU's strategy and how it potentially impacted the game. Let's just say that BYU split the difference between what they actually did this year and what happened last season in its opener, so say BYU ran one play every 22 seconds instead of every 16.7 seconds, as I suggest above. If BYU would have done that, Virginia would not have gotten their final drive of the first half that ended up with a long FG make. BYU lead 7-3 at the half, but it would have been 7-0. The first possession would have taken one minute longer, 2 other possessions would have added 30 seconds each for an additional minute off the clock. Basically, the final possession of the half would have been Taysom's TD pass to JD Falslev, followed by Virginia getting the ball and ultimately having to punt/run the clock out.
In the second half, BYU drove 92 yards in 11 plays, using 2 minutes and 17 seconds. That drive would have ended with about 3 minutes left on the clock instead of 6:26. UVa then fumbled the ensuing kickoff. At that point, BYU ran the ball 3 times, getting one first down, and throwing an incompletion. BYU would have had the ball in field goal range, with under 3 minutes to go, with Virginia only having one timeout. BYU would have taken more time between plays and probably would have run on 3rd and 11 from the 18 instead of throwing it. So BYU would have kicked a FG to go up 8 and given Virginia the ball back with less than a minute, no timeouts, and down 8 points. At that point, anything could have happened. If BYU had slowed its pace down just a little bit, BYU would have still run 78 plays, scored 17 points, and probably would have won 17-9.
I know there are games where the pace might be the difference on the positive side, but against Virginia, going hard EVERY play cost BYU. That and their final 3 possessions...I propose Anae slows it down just a little bit on every play and only go with into hyper-speed after first downs. That's what I'm waffling about this week.
BYU managed to squeeze 93 plays into 1551 seconds of possession. That means BYU got off one play every 16.7 seconds. The average of each play is generally 5-6 seconds, so realistically, that amounts to running a play 11 seconds after the previous one. Now this approach to measuring plays is a bit simplistic as it doesn't account for incompletions (of which there were many) and brief clock stoppages for first downs and players going out of bounds. However, absent the time to review every single play, it's an easy measure for me to look at. [Contrast that with BYU's home opener against Washington State last season where BYU ran 78 plays in 2134 seconds, or one play every 27.4 seconds, to give you an idea of just how "fast and hard" BYU went against Virginia.]
I recognize that the hurry-up offense is big right now in college football, but the trends I saw the most over the weekend was for other teams to hurry-up only after first downs or in critical short down and distance situations. Those teams tend to be more successful, in my opinion. As has been well documented, teams that ran 88+ plays over the weekend went 3-7. Going fast is good, hurrying is bad.
I believe the hurry-up offense is an effective weapon to have in any team's arsenal, particularly in this day and age. However, I'm waffling on Anae's decision to make this the full-time offense. Or, even if it remains so, perhaps shooting for a little more time between plays, say 22 seconds between plays instead of 16.7 seconds. That is still plenty quick. It does not leave enough time for defensive substitutions. The defense does have more time to get set, but it also allows Taysom Hill time to read the defense, to adjust routes of the WRs, or to identify mismatches he can exploit.
What If BYU Played "Normal"?
Making some simplistic assumptions that everything else stays the same, I want to go through an intellectual approach to BYU's strategy and how it potentially impacted the game. Let's just say that BYU split the difference between what they actually did this year and what happened last season in its opener, so say BYU ran one play every 22 seconds instead of every 16.7 seconds, as I suggest above. If BYU would have done that, Virginia would not have gotten their final drive of the first half that ended up with a long FG make. BYU lead 7-3 at the half, but it would have been 7-0. The first possession would have taken one minute longer, 2 other possessions would have added 30 seconds each for an additional minute off the clock. Basically, the final possession of the half would have been Taysom's TD pass to JD Falslev, followed by Virginia getting the ball and ultimately having to punt/run the clock out.
In the second half, BYU drove 92 yards in 11 plays, using 2 minutes and 17 seconds. That drive would have ended with about 3 minutes left on the clock instead of 6:26. UVa then fumbled the ensuing kickoff. At that point, BYU ran the ball 3 times, getting one first down, and throwing an incompletion. BYU would have had the ball in field goal range, with under 3 minutes to go, with Virginia only having one timeout. BYU would have taken more time between plays and probably would have run on 3rd and 11 from the 18 instead of throwing it. So BYU would have kicked a FG to go up 8 and given Virginia the ball back with less than a minute, no timeouts, and down 8 points. At that point, anything could have happened. If BYU had slowed its pace down just a little bit, BYU would have still run 78 plays, scored 17 points, and probably would have won 17-9.
I know there are games where the pace might be the difference on the positive side, but against Virginia, going hard EVERY play cost BYU. That and their final 3 possessions...I propose Anae slows it down just a little bit on every play and only go with into hyper-speed after first downs. That's what I'm waffling about this week.
Looking Ahead After Virginia
There was good news and bad news from BYU's game. The good news is that the defense is going to be very good again. More good news is that the offense can afford to suck and BYU still has a chance to win. Virginia only scored 3 points on their own. And it took a 50+ yard field goal for that. The final good news of the day: BYU finally has an offensive line that can block real players in the running game...
Now, the bad news. BYU has an offensive line that cannot block anybody in the passing game. Also, Taysom Hill is a sophomore QB and plays like a sophomore at times (I'm pretty sure I mentioned that going into last week). Obvious bad news: BYU lost. Basically, the season is over for BYU. Here is what they have to play for: an opportunity to ruin other teams' seasons and qualify for a bowl game. OK, beating Utah. That's it. There is no pressure now, the rest is just gravy, right? Maybe that is good news??? My wife frequently points out that BYU sucks under pressure and we should find a new team that's more fun to watch that can deal with a little pressure. My buddy Shane has more colorful language when it comes to BYU's lack of mental fortitude. My brother suggests we should become Oregon State, Iowa State, South Florida, Kansas State, South Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia State, or San Diego State fans...
Defense
BYU forced 8 three and outs in 17 possessions. Virginia only had 3 possessions over 20 yards, only 2 possessions over 30 yards. They held a very conservative passing attack to 56% completion percentage. They held the UVa rushing attack to 2.6 yards/carry. The BYU D allowed only 1 play of 20+ yards (and it was exactly 20 yards in a desperation attempt at the end of the first half). The biggest deficiency for the D is the inability of anybody but Kyle Van Noy to force turnovers in critical moments. He tipped a ball in the 4th Q that would have sealed the game, but Hadley couldn't corral it. It would have been a difficult catch, especially for a LB, but it quite literally was the difference in the game. The D did get 2 turnovers, but it needed one more.
Offense
BYU ran the ball reasonably well. Considering it was a first game, against a BCS conference team, on the road, it was phenomenal. I recognize it was 53 attempts, but still, 187 yards is more than I thought BYU would get. However, given the conditions of the field, it's tough to tell if that was part of the reason behind the near 200-yard performance. Speaking of conditions of the field, they definitely did not help the passing game. I remember hearing about the depth of BYU's receiving corps all off-season. Then, Hoffman goes out with an injury and all of a sudden BYU has ZERO wide receivers. I guess I don't equate "bodies" with "depth" the same way that BYU does.
The bigger story for people was the 3rd and 6 with 2.5 minutes to go, UVa with one timeout, and a punt forcing them to go 60-75 yards against Bronco's D. I agree, bad call, but there were plenty of other opportunities to win the game outside of that one crucial coaching error (but even then, it was a good play, it would have worked if the ball had been caught, so don't get too up in arms about it).
One Play
One more 1st down in the first half and UVa doesn't have time for a last second field goal. A 3rd and 10 catch by a wide open Brett Thompson with a minute and a half to go would have moved BYU into Virginia territory, with momentum and a first down. The aforementioned tipped ball by Van Noy that could have led to an INT. Cody Hoffman being able to play. Bronco not challenging Virginia's TD so early in the process (he didn't even give the replay official a chance to review the play before challenging) and losing a critical 2nd half timeout for BYU. Blocking at least one guy on every punt...
Since Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, Harvey Unga, Andrew George, Manase Tonga left, BYU has had no one on offense to go out and make that play that decides a game, excluding Hoffman. Van Noy has done it consistently for the defense, along with the occasional mix of Ziggy and Daniel Sorensen. Riley Stephenson has done it in the punting game. The offense just hasn't had that. Jamaal Williams will definitely become that. Taysom Hill could be the guy. But it's been lacking.
The fact is, if any of a number of plays goes differently, BYU wins the game. If two or three of them go BYU's way, they win comfortably. My point is that they never seem to, unless the opponent is truly awful. I don't know if it's the nature of BYU recruits (many people say this), or Bronco (many others say this), or bad karma (I probably fall in here), but Tulsa and Utah State are the only games in 3+ years now where the offense has gone out and won a close game by making a critical play (or plays). Luck has rarely been on BYU's side. It's worth noting here that BYU doesn't seem to have the goods.
It is telling that I'm watching BYU with the ball and the lead late in the 4th Q against a mediocre opponent and I'm not confident the Cougars will win. It's more than that, I'm still just hoping BYU will win. I'm trying to talk myself into being comfortable that BYU can win. And really, I'm just wondering how BYU is going to screw it up this time. And you know what, every time, they find a brand new excruciatingly painful way to blow it. I'm more comfortable with BYU's D on the field to win the game than I am with BYU's O winning it or even maintaining a lead.
The Stats
Since Max Hall and Company graduated, BYU has played in 15 games decided by 7 points or less. BYU was 3-1 in 2010, 4-1 in 2011, 1-4 in 2012, and 0-1 so far in 2013. Since beating Tulsa on Riley Nelson's gutsy play, BYU is 1-5 in close games. Looking at the 7 wins in 2010 and 2011, 4 of the wins game because of the D making stops (or scoring themselves) in the 4th Q. In two wins the BYU offense won the game by scoring in the last 5 minutes. In one win the BYU offense successful ran the clock out after sustaining a drive. In the 15 games, opponents have scored an average of 3 points/game in the 4th quarter. It is not BYU's D giving up points late and losing games. It is BYU's offense NOT scoring points, sustaining drives to run clock, or even securing the football to preserve wins that is the difference.
That must change or Tom Holmoe is going to have to find some way to reinvigorate a jaded fan base. Of the 20 or so BYU fans that I know at Notre Dame, I have a feeling more than half of them will be wearing a different color blue on a certain Saturday in November. This is not a good time for BYU to be losing relevance WITHIN ITS OWN FAN BASE!
Now, the bad news. BYU has an offensive line that cannot block anybody in the passing game. Also, Taysom Hill is a sophomore QB and plays like a sophomore at times (I'm pretty sure I mentioned that going into last week). Obvious bad news: BYU lost. Basically, the season is over for BYU. Here is what they have to play for: an opportunity to ruin other teams' seasons and qualify for a bowl game. OK, beating Utah. That's it. There is no pressure now, the rest is just gravy, right? Maybe that is good news??? My wife frequently points out that BYU sucks under pressure and we should find a new team that's more fun to watch that can deal with a little pressure. My buddy Shane has more colorful language when it comes to BYU's lack of mental fortitude. My brother suggests we should become Oregon State, Iowa State, South Florida, Kansas State, South Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia State, or San Diego State fans...
Defense
BYU forced 8 three and outs in 17 possessions. Virginia only had 3 possessions over 20 yards, only 2 possessions over 30 yards. They held a very conservative passing attack to 56% completion percentage. They held the UVa rushing attack to 2.6 yards/carry. The BYU D allowed only 1 play of 20+ yards (and it was exactly 20 yards in a desperation attempt at the end of the first half). The biggest deficiency for the D is the inability of anybody but Kyle Van Noy to force turnovers in critical moments. He tipped a ball in the 4th Q that would have sealed the game, but Hadley couldn't corral it. It would have been a difficult catch, especially for a LB, but it quite literally was the difference in the game. The D did get 2 turnovers, but it needed one more.
Offense
BYU ran the ball reasonably well. Considering it was a first game, against a BCS conference team, on the road, it was phenomenal. I recognize it was 53 attempts, but still, 187 yards is more than I thought BYU would get. However, given the conditions of the field, it's tough to tell if that was part of the reason behind the near 200-yard performance. Speaking of conditions of the field, they definitely did not help the passing game. I remember hearing about the depth of BYU's receiving corps all off-season. Then, Hoffman goes out with an injury and all of a sudden BYU has ZERO wide receivers. I guess I don't equate "bodies" with "depth" the same way that BYU does.
The bigger story for people was the 3rd and 6 with 2.5 minutes to go, UVa with one timeout, and a punt forcing them to go 60-75 yards against Bronco's D. I agree, bad call, but there were plenty of other opportunities to win the game outside of that one crucial coaching error (but even then, it was a good play, it would have worked if the ball had been caught, so don't get too up in arms about it).
One Play
One more 1st down in the first half and UVa doesn't have time for a last second field goal. A 3rd and 10 catch by a wide open Brett Thompson with a minute and a half to go would have moved BYU into Virginia territory, with momentum and a first down. The aforementioned tipped ball by Van Noy that could have led to an INT. Cody Hoffman being able to play. Bronco not challenging Virginia's TD so early in the process (he didn't even give the replay official a chance to review the play before challenging) and losing a critical 2nd half timeout for BYU. Blocking at least one guy on every punt...
Since Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, Harvey Unga, Andrew George, Manase Tonga left, BYU has had no one on offense to go out and make that play that decides a game, excluding Hoffman. Van Noy has done it consistently for the defense, along with the occasional mix of Ziggy and Daniel Sorensen. Riley Stephenson has done it in the punting game. The offense just hasn't had that. Jamaal Williams will definitely become that. Taysom Hill could be the guy. But it's been lacking.
The fact is, if any of a number of plays goes differently, BYU wins the game. If two or three of them go BYU's way, they win comfortably. My point is that they never seem to, unless the opponent is truly awful. I don't know if it's the nature of BYU recruits (many people say this), or Bronco (many others say this), or bad karma (I probably fall in here), but Tulsa and Utah State are the only games in 3+ years now where the offense has gone out and won a close game by making a critical play (or plays). Luck has rarely been on BYU's side. It's worth noting here that BYU doesn't seem to have the goods.
It is telling that I'm watching BYU with the ball and the lead late in the 4th Q against a mediocre opponent and I'm not confident the Cougars will win. It's more than that, I'm still just hoping BYU will win. I'm trying to talk myself into being comfortable that BYU can win. And really, I'm just wondering how BYU is going to screw it up this time. And you know what, every time, they find a brand new excruciatingly painful way to blow it. I'm more comfortable with BYU's D on the field to win the game than I am with BYU's O winning it or even maintaining a lead.
The Stats
Since Max Hall and Company graduated, BYU has played in 15 games decided by 7 points or less. BYU was 3-1 in 2010, 4-1 in 2011, 1-4 in 2012, and 0-1 so far in 2013. Since beating Tulsa on Riley Nelson's gutsy play, BYU is 1-5 in close games. Looking at the 7 wins in 2010 and 2011, 4 of the wins game because of the D making stops (or scoring themselves) in the 4th Q. In two wins the BYU offense won the game by scoring in the last 5 minutes. In one win the BYU offense successful ran the clock out after sustaining a drive. In the 15 games, opponents have scored an average of 3 points/game in the 4th quarter. It is not BYU's D giving up points late and losing games. It is BYU's offense NOT scoring points, sustaining drives to run clock, or even securing the football to preserve wins that is the difference.
That must change or Tom Holmoe is going to have to find some way to reinvigorate a jaded fan base. Of the 20 or so BYU fans that I know at Notre Dame, I have a feeling more than half of them will be wearing a different color blue on a certain Saturday in November. This is not a good time for BYU to be losing relevance WITHIN ITS OWN FAN BASE!
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