Looking Ahead After Virginia

There was good news and bad news from BYU's game.  The good news is that the defense is going to be very good again.  More good news is that the offense can afford to suck and BYU still has a chance to win.  Virginia only scored 3 points on their own.  And it took a 50+ yard field goal for that.  The final good news of the day: BYU finally has an offensive line that can block real players in the running game...

Now, the bad news.  BYU has an offensive line that cannot block anybody in the passing game.  Also, Taysom Hill is a sophomore QB and plays like a sophomore at times (I'm pretty sure I mentioned that going into last week).  Obvious bad news: BYU lost.  Basically, the season is over for BYU.  Here is what they have to play for: an opportunity to ruin other teams' seasons and qualify for a bowl game.  OK, beating Utah.  That's it.  There is no pressure now, the rest is just gravy, right?  Maybe that is good news???  My wife frequently points out that BYU sucks under pressure and we should find a new team that's more fun to watch that can deal with a little pressure.  My buddy Shane has more colorful language when it comes to BYU's lack of mental fortitude.  My brother suggests we should become Oregon State, Iowa State, South Florida, Kansas State, South Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia State, or San Diego State fans...

Defense
BYU forced 8 three and outs in 17 possessions.  Virginia only had 3 possessions over 20 yards, only 2 possessions over 30 yards.  They held a very conservative passing attack to 56% completion percentage.  They held the UVa rushing attack to 2.6 yards/carry.  The BYU D allowed only 1 play of 20+ yards (and it was exactly 20 yards in a desperation attempt at the end of the first half).  The biggest deficiency for the D is the inability of anybody but Kyle Van Noy to force turnovers in critical moments.  He tipped a ball in the 4th Q that would have sealed the game, but Hadley couldn't corral it.  It would have been a difficult catch, especially for a LB, but it quite literally was the difference in the game.  The D did get 2 turnovers, but it needed one more.

Offense
BYU ran the ball reasonably well.  Considering it was a first game, against a BCS conference team, on the road, it was phenomenal.  I recognize it was 53 attempts, but still, 187 yards is more than I thought BYU would get.  However, given the conditions of the field, it's tough to tell if that was part of the reason behind the near 200-yard performance.  Speaking of conditions of the field, they definitely did not help the passing game.  I remember hearing about the depth of BYU's receiving corps all off-season.  Then, Hoffman goes out with an injury and all of a sudden BYU has ZERO wide receivers.  I guess I don't equate "bodies" with "depth" the same way that BYU does.

The bigger story for people was the 3rd and 6 with 2.5 minutes to go, UVa with one timeout, and a punt forcing them to go 60-75 yards against Bronco's D.  I agree, bad call, but there were plenty of other opportunities to win the game outside of that one crucial coaching error (but even then, it was a good play, it would have worked if the ball had been caught, so don't get too up in arms about it).

One Play
One more 1st down in the first half and UVa doesn't have time for a last second field goal.  A 3rd and 10 catch by a wide open Brett Thompson with a minute and a half to go would have moved BYU into Virginia territory, with momentum and a first down.  The aforementioned tipped ball by Van Noy that could have led to an INT.  Cody Hoffman being able to play.  Bronco not challenging Virginia's TD so early in the process (he didn't even give the replay official a chance to review the play before challenging) and losing a critical 2nd half timeout for BYU.  Blocking at least one guy on every punt...

Since Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, Harvey Unga, Andrew George, Manase Tonga left, BYU has had no one on offense to go out and make that play that decides a game, excluding Hoffman.  Van Noy has done it consistently for the defense, along with the occasional mix of Ziggy and Daniel Sorensen.  Riley Stephenson has done it in the punting game.  The offense just hasn't had that.  Jamaal Williams will definitely become that.  Taysom Hill could be the guy.  But it's been lacking.

The fact is, if any of a number of plays goes differently, BYU wins the game.  If two or three of them go BYU's way, they win comfortably.  My point is that they never seem to, unless the opponent is truly awful.  I don't know if it's the nature of BYU recruits (many people say this), or Bronco (many others say this), or bad karma (I probably fall in here), but Tulsa and Utah State are the only games in 3+ years now where the offense has gone out and won a close game by making a critical play (or plays).  Luck has rarely been on BYU's side.  It's worth noting here that BYU doesn't seem to have the goods.

It is telling that I'm watching BYU with the ball and the lead late in the 4th Q against a mediocre opponent and I'm not confident the Cougars will win.  It's more than that, I'm still just hoping BYU will win.  I'm trying to talk myself into being comfortable that BYU can win.  And really, I'm just wondering how BYU is going to screw it up this time.  And you know what, every time, they find a brand new excruciatingly painful way to blow it.  I'm more comfortable with BYU's D on the field to win the game than I am with BYU's O winning it or even maintaining a lead.

The Stats
Since Max Hall and Company graduated, BYU has played in 15 games decided by 7 points or less.  BYU was 3-1 in 2010, 4-1 in 2011, 1-4 in 2012, and 0-1 so far in 2013.  Since beating Tulsa on Riley Nelson's gutsy play, BYU is 1-5 in close games.  Looking at the 7 wins in 2010 and 2011, 4 of the wins game because of the D making stops (or scoring themselves) in the 4th Q.  In two wins the BYU offense won the game by scoring in the last 5 minutes.  In one win the BYU offense successful ran the clock out after sustaining a drive.  In the 15 games, opponents have scored an average of 3 points/game in the 4th quarter.  It is not BYU's D giving up points late and losing games.  It is BYU's offense NOT scoring points, sustaining drives to run clock, or even securing the football to preserve wins that is the difference.

That must change or Tom Holmoe is going to have to find some way to reinvigorate a jaded fan base.  Of the 20 or so BYU fans that I know at Notre Dame, I have a feeling more than half of them will be wearing a different color blue on a certain Saturday in November.  This is not a good time for BYU to be losing relevance WITHIN ITS OWN FAN BASE!